CHINA

Extreme Weather Looms for China as El Niño Risks Intensify

Published: Apr. 29, 2026 7:26 p.m. GMT+8

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People walk briskly in the rain at Three Gorges Square in Shapingba District, Chongqing on April 19, 2026. Photo: VCG

The probability of a strong El Niño event is rising, China’s National Climate Center warned, setting the stage for extreme weather this year that could test the country’s agricultural resilience and energy grids.

Latest monitoring shows sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific are steadily increasing. The center expects El Niño conditions to emerge in May, developing into a medium or stronger event by the summer and autumn before peaking in the autumn and winter.

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China's National Climate Center warns of strong El Niño emerging in May 2026, peaking in autumn-winter with anomalies ≥2.0°C.
Summer 2026 forecast: heavy rain south of Yangtze, north/northeast China; deficits in middle Yangtze; higher temperatures, intense typhoons.
Risks include floods in Songliao/Hai/Yellow/Pearl basins, droughts in middle Yangtze/Southwest, heatwaves, surging energy demand.

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