社论 | 芯片烂尾教训 Editorial: To Build China Into a Microchip Powerhouse, Pop the Policy Bubble (Bilingual)

芯片“大干快上”的后遗症开始显现，多地出现项目停滞乃至烂尾乱象，其中不乏一些千亿级明星项目。近日，发改委、工信部等多部门回应，表明积极治理的态度。这一问题的实质是如何处理政府与市场的关系。中国正从选择性产业政策为主，转向功能性产业政策为主。这一转变近年来进展明显，芯片产业不应成为例外。

The knock-on effects of China’s efforts to rapidly grow its semiconductor industry have started to appear. In many places, projects — some of which have cost hundreds of billions of yuan — have begun to stagnate or die unfinished. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other government bodies have responded with a positive attitude toward governing the sector.

The essence of this issue is how to deal with the relationship between the government and the market. China is shifting from a selective industrial policy to a functional one. This transition has progressed significantly in recent years, and the chip industry should not be an exception.

芯片是信息产业的关键部件，也是中国经济科技的短板；在中美贸易冲突背景下，它还给国人带来“卡脖子”之痛，其重要性不言而喻。国家出台了不少扶持举措，地方上马项目的热情空前高涨。芯片产业既有高科技外衣，又有民族产业图强的色彩，有些地方政府难抑大干快上的冲动。奋发图强的热情是值得肯定的。

Microchips are both a key component of the information industry, and an area where China’s economy and technology fall short. Against the background of the trade conflict with the United States, chips could become a “stranglehold” technology for the Chinese people, making its importance self-evident.

To this end, the state has introduced many supportive measures, and the enthusiasm for launching projects in local areas is unprecedentedly high. Chips have the potential to both push forward China’s high-tech ambitions and become a strong national industry. Some local governments have an irresistible impulse to forge ahead.

然而，一如国家发改委所说，一些没经验、没技术、没人才的“三无”企业投身集成电路行业，个别地方对集成电路发展的规律认识不够，盲目上项目，低水平重复建设风险显现，甚至有个别项目建设停滞、厂房空置，造成资源浪费。当前的行业乱象，会给正处于追赶期的中国芯片业带来沉重打击。因此，促发展与挤泡沫两手都要硬。

However, as stated by the NDRC, some companies with the “three-nos” — no experience, no technology, and no human talent — are involved in the integrated circuit industry. In some places, local governments do not sufficiently understand the rules of chip development, launch projects blindly and invite these unqualified companies, producing flimsy or superfluous technologies.

Some projects have even stagnated, leaving workshops vacant and resources wasted. The current chaos in the industry will deal a heavy blow to China’s chip sector, which is trying to catch up with the U.S. and other countries. For this reason, we must strictly promote development while making sure to pop any emerging bubbles.

项目烂尾乃至企业破产若是市场主体在公平竞争中优胜劣汰的结果，实属正常。然而，此番芯片烂尾不只是热钱的无序投入，背后还有地方政府打着产业扶持旗号的深度介入，凸显了地方扶持政策的变形。武汉弘芯项目、淮安德淮项目都堪称典型。这些地方政府既无清晰的发展规划，也未做翔实的调研，追求短平快，给地（企业优惠拿地）、给钱（注资入股）、给资源（协调当地信贷以及企业），先上马再说。

It is normal for projects or whole businesses to fail as the result of fair competition between market players. However, unfinished projects not only represent the disorderly investment of hot money, but also the widespread interference of local governments in the name of industrial support, a trait that highlights the failures of local policies.

Two projects in the cities of Wuhan and Huaian illustrate this issue. In both cases, local governments produced neither clear development plans nor detailed research. Instead, they pursued short-term gains, providing businesses with land, capital and resources like connections with credit partners.

但是，芯片作为典型的资本、人才、技术的“三高”产业，如果缺乏完整的发展生态，没有巨量资本的持续投入，没有人才及技术的不断优化，注定是走不远的。芯片烂尾源于烂头。一个值得注意的现象是，越是产业配套薄弱或者经济发展缺乏动力的地区，越可能剑走偏锋，希冀以此实现“弯道超车”，于是，多地竞相开出优渥的条件以吸引资本，潜在风险自然也会放大。

However, as a typical “three highs” industry — high-capital, high-skills and high-tech — chips are destined to fail without the right environment in which to develop, the continuous investment of vast sums of money, and the ongoing optimization of talent and technology. Notably, the less-developed parts of China with weak capacity for supporting the chip sector are ironically more enthusiastic about great leaps forward. As a result, many places are racing to offer favorable conditions to attract capital, magnifying the potential risks.

“有形之手”往往扭曲市场运行规则。不少金融机构慑于地方政府的强力“协调”，大举向前途未卜的芯片项目投资，又何谈风险防范？目前，信贷风险已开始暴露。地方政府直接干预产业，还会引发企业恶性竞争，扰乱芯片产业秩序。政府越位介入，看似能产生立竿见影的效果，实则隐患重重。光伏等不少行业曾有惨痛的教训，足为前车之鉴。

Government intervention often distorts the natural operation of market forces. Many financial institutions, intimidated by the strong “coordination” of local governments, aggressively invest in chip projects with uncertain futures, regardless of risk prevention. Now, credit risks have already begun to emerge.

Direct interference by local governments in the chip industry will also trigger malicious competition among enterprises and disrupt the sector’s order. This kind of overreach seems to have immediate effects, but in reality it is full of hidden dangers. The painful past experiences of industries like photovoltaics should be instructive here.

当务之急是果断纠偏。国家发改委明确表示，要压实各方责任，引导地方加强对重大项目建设的风险认识，按照“谁支持、谁负责”原则，对造成重大损失或引发重大风险的，予以通报问责。我们期待有关部门能尽快公布几个典型案例，这虽非治本之举，但亦可发出严肃警示。对于一些明显不合理却仓促上马的项目，还要查查背后是否有政商勾兑的违法行为。当然，并非所有停摆烂尾的有政府扶持的项目，都必须被问责，关键是看地方政府是否尽到必要的尽调责任等，是否遵循了科学、民主的决策程序，是否符合当地的产业规划布局，是否尊重了基本的产业规律，对此认真甄别，不枉不纵。

Our most pressing concern is to decisively correct these deviations. The NDRC clearly stated that it is necessary to consolidate the responsibilities of all parties, guide local governments to strengthen their understanding of the risks of major project construction, and provide notice of and accountability for major losses or risks. We look forward to the relevant departments announcing a few typical cases as soon as possible. Although this is not a permanent cure, it can be seen as a severe warning.

For some obviously unsuitable and rushed projects, we must investigate whether there are illegal acts of corrupt collusion behind them. Of course, we do not need to go after all government-supported projects that are later abandoned. Instead, the key is to see whether the local government has fulfilled the necessary due diligence responsibilities, whether it has followed scientific and democratic decision-making procedures, whether it is in line with local industry, and whether the plans respect the basic rules of the sector.

在国务院发布的《新时期促进集成电路产业和软件产业高质量发展的若干政策》基础上，相关部门要抓紧出台配套举措以规范市场秩序。《若干政策》从财税、投融资、研究开发、进出口、人才、知识产权、市场应用、国际合作等多个方面，对这一重要产业给予了大力扶持，同时也迫切需要引导地方政府和企业尊重商业逻辑。芯片产业有自身独特的发展路径，基础科学是其根基，需要自由的学术氛围激发科学家的想象，相关人才既要培养出来，又要人尽其才。这些都不是简单增加投入能够实现的。在技术路径上，还要彻底抛弃短期见效等政绩工程思维。

The relevant government departments must promptly introduce supporting measures to regulate market order, based on the policies to promote the high-quality development of the chip and software industry previously issued by the State Council, China’s cabinet. Those policies have provided great support to this important industry in terms of finance and taxation, investment and financing, research and development, imports and exports, talent and skills, intellectual property rights, market applications and international cooperation.

At the same time, there is an urgent need to guide local governments and enterprises to respect the logic of business. The chip industry has its own unique development path, rooted in basic science. It needs a free academic atmosphere to stimulate scientists’ imaginations. We must cultivate the relevant talent and use them to their fullest. This cannot be achieved solely by spending more money. On the technical side, we must completely abandon the political engineer’s way of thinking, which emphasizes short-term gains.

产业政策不是存废问题，而是要转型，即从选择性产业政策为主转向功能性产业政策为主。前者的特征是，政府广泛干预微观经济运行，挑选赢家、扭曲价格，后者则重在完善市场制度、改善营商环境、维护公平竞争，支持产业技术的创新与扩散并为之建立系统有效的公共服务体系。中共十八大以来，这一转型取得明显进展。然而，中美贸易战下出现的某些技术封锁，使得形势变得复杂起来。有些人误以为“集中力量干大事”就需要坚持选择性产业政策。其实，越是建设创新型国家，越是探索科技前沿，越需要使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用。

Industrial policy is not a matter of choosing whether to preserve or to abolish. It’s about transformation — shifting from a selective policy basis to a more functional one. The former means extensive government intervention at the microeconomic level, selecting “winners” and distorts prices. The latter focuses on perfecting the market system, improving the business environment, maintaining fair competition, supporting the innovation and spread of industrial technology, and establishing a systematic and effective public service system.

This transformation has made significant progress since the 18th National Congress in 2012. However, certain technology sanctions that have emerged during the Sino-U.S. trade war have complicated the situation. Some people mistakenly think that “concentrating strength to do big things” implies an insistence on selective industrial policy. In fact, the more we build an innovative country and explore the frontiers of science and technology, the more we need to let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation.

芯片产业泡沫是表，有些地方政府盲目上马的政策泡沫是里，更要狠狠挤一挤。过往数十年，中国政府对芯片产业不可谓不重视，投入不可谓不巨大。如今，这一产业的发展又到关键时点，应当冷静反思，特别是理清产业政策的脉络，此外还须辅之以竞争、创新、人才等多方面政策，中国制造业才会有一颗强健的“芯”。

We must target the chip bubble, but more importantly, we must crack down on the policy bubbles in which local governments overly interfere with the market. In recent decades, the Chinese government has paid significant attention to the chip industry and made huge investments when necessary. Now, with the sector’s development at a critical point, we should calmly reflect on our actions, particularly to clarify the context of industrial policies. We must supplement this with competition, innovation, talent and other policies.

The Chinese version of this article was published in Caixin Weekly on Oct. 26, 2020, and is only available for Caixin Global’s app users. To unlock more bilingual articles, download the Caixin app.

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