Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index(May 2018)

Released: 10:00 am Beijing Time June-02-2018

Overview

In May 2018, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 29.6, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 29.6% of overall economic input activities that month, down 0.1 ppts from April (Chart 1). The declining NEI was due to the decrease of technology input and capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.

Primary Inputs

The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The decline in the May NEI reading came from the decrease of technology input and capital input (Chart 2). Technology input index fluctuated widely since October 2017, coming in at 30.3, with 0.3 MoM decrease. Capital investment showed a slow downtrend since March 2018, it continued to decline to 31.0 this month, with 0.3 MoM decrease. Labor input index declined moderately since July 2017, remaining to 27.9 this month.

Taking the weight into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were 0.0, -0.1, and -0.1 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was -0.2 ppts in total (Chart 3). 

Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 11.4 ppts to NEI. Advanced Materials was the industry with fastest growth in May, contributing 3.6 ppts and ranking the second. Advanced Equipment Manufacturing came ninth from second, the biggest drop in ranking, contributing 1.2 ppts in May (Chart 4). 

New Economy Employment

In May 2018, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,444 per month, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,420 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.

Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 27.3% of total hiring in May, slightly lower than the previous month’s 27.4%. At the same time, the total compensation share of New Economy sectors remained stable to 28.4%, which meant the average entry salary level of New Economy was higher than national average entry wage level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 4.0% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, increasing from 3.9% in April (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy was lower than the first half year generally.

Decomposition of New Established Enterprises

We use newly-established enterprises data to monitor new enterprises in sub-sectors (Chart 7).

Sub-sectors which were continuously ranking up in last 2 years include the following: Architectural Engineering (No.25 in 2016, rising to No.23 and No.12 in 2017 and 2018, 0.06% and 0.26% increase in proportion in 2017 and 2018 respectively); Construction (No. 17 in 2016, rising to No. 16 and No. 13 in 2017 and 2018, 0.05% and 0.12% increase in proportion 2017 and 2018 respectively).

Sub-sectors which were continuously ranking down in 2 last years include the following: Communication (No. 13 in 2016, dropping to No. 17 and No. 20 in 2017 and 2018, 0.13% and 0.01% decrease in proportion 2017 and 2018 respectively); Logistics (No. 19 in 2016, dropping to No. 21 and No. 23 in 2017 and 2018, 0.00% and 0.06% decrease in proportion 2017 and 2018 respectively); E-commerce (No. 9 in 2016, dropping to No. 13 and No. 14 in 2017 and 2018, 0.29% increase and 0.02% decrease in proportion 2017 and 2018 respectively)

Sub-sectors with fluctuating ranks in last 2 years include the following: Materials (No.18 in 2016, dropped to No.20 in 2017 and rose to No 15 in 2018); Information (No.16 in 2016, rose to No.11 in 2017 and dropped to No 16 in 2018); Agriculture (No.14 in 2016, dropped to No.19 in 2017 and rose to No 17 in 2018); Education (No.20 in 2016, rose to No.14 in 2017 and dropped to No 19 in 2018); IT (No.11 in 2016, rose to No.9 in 2017 and dropped to No 10 in 2018); Real Estate (No.23 in 2016, rose to No.18 in 2017 and dropped to No 22 in 2018).

Industrial Value-Added Based and Employment Data

This month, we explored China’s industrial value-added by the employment of low-skilled general workers and operators. Monthly data in general workers and operators recruitment were collected from online websites of career platforms. It can be seen that the total employment of general workers and operators is reasonably consistent with the industrial value-added index (100 in base period of 2010) (Chart 8).

We analyzed the employment data of general workers and operators in different provincial areas as well. The growth rates of low-skilled workers and industrial value-added in each region were compared. To remove the fixed effect, we de-trended the series by subtracting the three-year average. Similar consistency was found between growth rate of employment and that of industrial value-added across regions (Chart 9). The elasticity is around 0.4, indicating when the hiring growth rates of general workers and the operators increase by 1%, the growth rate of industry value added will increase by about 0.4%. The coefficient was the most significant with the 9-month lag or no lag at all.

City Rankings of the New Economy

Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Shenzhen. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.

Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between November 2017 and May 2018. The top five cities were Guangzhou, Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen. 

For further information please contact:

Mastercard

Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications

Tel：+86-10-8519-9304

Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

Caixin Insight Group

Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist

Tel：+86-10-85905019

Emails：zhewang@caixin.com

Ma Ling, Public Relations

Tel：+86-10-8590-5204

Email：lingma@caixin.com

BBD

Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist

Tel：+86-28-65290823

Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com

The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

About Caixin

Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.

About Mastercard

Mastercard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.

About BBD (Business Big Data)

BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.

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