Taiwan Set for First Tourist Drop Since 2003 After Chinese Mainland Ban

(Bloomberg) — The Chinese mainland’s ban on individual travel to Taiwan could see visitors to the island fall for the first time since the devastating SARS outbreak of 2003.

The number of mainlanders traveling to the island plunged 46% in September, according to data from Taiwan’s Tourism Bureau. Beijing banned individual travelers from heading to Taiwan in July, although tourists are still allowed to visit in tour groups.

While the total number of visitors to Taiwan had been on track for a new record high, rising more than 10% so far this year, the embargo threatens to interrupt 15 straight years of annual increases in overseas arrivals. In 2003, tourists stayed away from Taiwan and Hong Kong after outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS.

The Chinese mainland, which is the largest single source of tourists to Taiwan, has sought to isolate the island ahead of a January election that will determine whether Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party can win a second term. Beijing provided little justification for its ban on individual travel, citing only “the state of cross-strait relations” in its statement.

“Arbitrary curbs on travel hurt the prospects for mutual understanding,” said Ian Rowen, assistant professor at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, via email. “However, economic impacts on Taiwan are limited due to the economy’s low overall reliance on tourism and the government’s active role in courting visitors from less capricious emerging markets.”

Contact editor Yang Ge (geyang@caixin.com)