NPC Preview: Supporting Growth as the Top Priority

In the upcoming National People’s Congress meeting (NPC), starting March 5, we expect the government to reiterate the priority of supporting growth and call for more policy support. In our current baseline GDP forecast of 4.9%, we expect the meeting to set the GDP growth target at “around 5%” with supportive macro policies, including a slightly higher headline fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP, a small increase of new special local government bond quota to 3.7 trillion yuan ($537 billion) to 3.8 trillion yuan and more property policy easing.