[Preview of the Weekly] 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook: Policy Coordination and Deepening Reforms (AI Translation)
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- China's economic recovery in the first year after three years of COVID-19 prevention and control measures shows a wavy and tortuous progression. The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2023, emphasized stabilizing growth and high-quality development, marking the return to prioritizing economic construction after two years.
- The conference highlighted challenges such as insufficient demand, weak expectations, industry overcapacity, domestic circulation blockages, and increased complexity and uncertainty in the external environment. It set forth 'five musts' for economic work in the new era, with a focus on technological innovation leading modern industrial system construction.
- Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive with an anticipated budget deficit ratio exceeding 3% for the second consecutive year. Monetary policy will aim for precision and effectiveness. Structural reforms are planned to boost confidence among private enterprises and attract foreign investment. A new round of fiscal system reform is also anticipated.
文｜财新周刊 于海荣 程思炜
By Caixin Weekly's Yu Hairong and Cheng Siwei
三年新冠疫情防控转段后的首年，中国经济的恢复呈现波浪式发展、曲折式前进。2023年12月11日至12日举行的中央经济工作会议（下称“会议”）再次释放出稳增长的信号，时隔两年再度提及以经济建设为中心。
In the first year following the transition of COVID-19 pandemic control measures, China's economic recovery has exhibited a wave-like development and a tortuous progression. The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2023 (hereinafter referred to as "the Conference") once again signaled a focus on stable growth, mentioning the centrality of economic construction for the first time in two years.
会议在肯定三年新冠疫情防控转段首年成绩的同时，也指出进一步推动经济回升向好需要克服一些困难和挑战。与此前两年的“需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力”相比，需求不足、预期偏弱仍然存在，但供给面临的问题已经变成“部分行业产能过剩”。此外，国内大循环存在堵点，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。
The meeting acknowledged the achievements of the first year of transitioning from COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control over the past three years, while also pointing out that further promotion of economic recovery faces certain difficulties and challenges. Compared with the "triple pressures" of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations experienced in the previous two years, issues of insufficient demand and weak expectations still exist. However, problems on the supply side have shifted to "overcapacity in certain industries." Additionally, there are bottlenecks in the domestic economic cycle, and the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased.
在这种情况下，会议的新闻通稿全文16次提及“高质量发展”；提出新时代做好经济工作的“五个必须”规律性认识，并将“必须把坚持高质量发展作为新时代的硬道理”放在首位。
In this context, the press release of the meeting mentioned "high-quality development" 16 times in its entirety; it proposed a regular understanding of the "five musts" for doing good economic work in the new era and placed "must adhere to high-quality development as the hard truth of the new era" at the forefront.
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