[Preview of the Weekly] Has Abenomics Finally Borne Fruit? Can Japan Break Free from Prolonged Deflation This Time? (AI Translation)
Listen to the full version
- Japan is experiencing an economic uplift not seen since the 'lost 30 years' that began in the 1990s, with core CPI rising by 2.9% in October 2023 and the Nikkei index reaching levels around those of 1990. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda expressed confidence in Japan's economy, which has shown signs of escaping deflation largely due to a weak yen and optimistic corporate earnings.
- The Japanese economy has recovered from pandemic disruptions with a GDP growth rate expected to reach 2% in 2023, according to IMF forecasts. However, there are concerns about sustainability amidst complex global economic conditions, as real GDP growth turned negative in Q3 2023 when adjusted for inflation.
- Factors contributing to Japan's economic recovery include aggressive monetary policies initiated during Shinzo Abe's tenure, known as 'Abenomics,' consisting of quantitative easing, flexible fiscal policy, and structural reforms. Despite challenges such as wage stagnation among small businesses and potential shifts in monetary policy, there are opportunities for Japan due to global supply chain reconfigurations and increased foreign investment.
文｜财新周刊 王石玉、王力为 发自北京，陈立雄 发自东京
By Caixin Weekly's Wang Shiyu and Wang Liwei from Beijing, Chen Lixiong from Tokyo
日本经济正处于自1990年“失去的30年”来前所未有的振奋时刻。
Japan's economy is experiencing an unprecedented moment of exhilaration not seen since the "lost 30 years" that began in 1990.
从各项金融经济数据来看，日本正在走出上世纪90年代以来大部分时间里难以摆脱的通缩。2023年10月，日本核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，已连续19个月超过日本央行的目标。更具风向标意义的是，日本资本市场也在升温。2023年12月15日，日经指数报32970点，回到1990年左右的水平。即使经历最近一年多美联储迅速加息的压力，但在日元持续贬值、日本企业盈利前景乐观等因素驱动下，资金不吝进入日本市场。
According to various financial and economic indicators, Japan is emerging from the deflation that has plagued it for most of the time since the 1990s. In October 2023, Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-over-year, marking the 19th consecutive month it has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target. Significantly indicative of market sentiment, Japan's capital markets are also heating up. On December 15, 2023, the Nikkei Index stood at 32,970 points, returning to levels around those seen in 1990. Despite facing pressure from rapid interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the past year or so, factors such as the continued depreciation of the yen and optimistic profit outlooks for Japanese companies have encouraged capital inflow into Japan's market.
“日本经济表现相当不错（quite well）。”2023年11月7日，日本央行上任行长黑田东彦在哈佛大学受邀演讲时说，日本经济正处于五年来最好的状态，他对日本经济的前景“更有信心了”。
"Japan's economy is performing quite well," said Haruhiko Kuroda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, in a speech at Harvard University on November 7, 2023. He stated that Japan's economy is in its best shape in five years and expressed increased confidence in the outlook for Japan's economy.
Sign in with Google
Sign in with Facebook
Sign in with 财新