[Preview of the Weekly] Outlook for Hong Kong Stocks in 2024: The Market Hopes for "Stabilization" (AI Translation)
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- SEVVA, a rooftop bar in Prince's Building, Central, Hong Kong, popular among investment bankers for post-deal celebrations, announced it will close in May 2024. This comes as the Hang Seng Index has fallen for four consecutive years and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) IPO fundraising hit a 22-year low in 2023.
- The Hong Kong government has taken measures to revive the stock market by reducing stamp duty on stock transactions and exploring reforms such as narrowing bid-ask spreads and implementing changes to the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM). Despite these efforts, traditional Western institutional investors remain cautious about allocating funds to Hong Kong stocks due to geopolitical concerns and structural challenges within China's economy.
- Signs of a potential bottoming out in the Hong Kong stock market include record-high share buybacks by listed companies and improved liquidity. With expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024, there is some optimism that international capital might flow back into Hong Kong stocks. However, overall sentiment remains cautious with predictions of stabilization rather than a significant rebound for the Hang Seng Index in 2024.
文｜财新周刊 王小青 发自香港
By Wang Xiaoqing, Caixin Weekly, from Hong Kong
位于香港中环太子大厦的天台酒吧SEVVA，最近预告将于2024年5月结业。“真没想到SEVVA会关门，这是不是恒生指数连跌四年闹的，真让人难受啊。”香港投资银行从业人士罗先生感慨不已。
The rooftop bar SEVVA, located in Prince's Building in Central Hong Kong, recently announced that it will close its doors in May 2024. "I really didn't expect SEVVA to shut down. Could this be due to the Hang Seng Index falling for four consecutive years? It's truly upsetting," lamented Mr. Luo, a Hong Kong investment banker.
SEVVA是不少香港投行人士完成交易后的庆祝聚会地。这家经营了16年的酒吧，曾见证过香港新股IPO十年蝉联全球前三的荣景，如今也被迫面对2023年恒指连跌四年、港交所IPO集资金额创22年新低的窘境。
SEVVA has long been a favored venue for celebration among Hong Kong investment bankers following successful deals. The bar, which has been in operation for 16 years, has witnessed the glory days when Hong Kong's new stock IPOs consistently ranked in the top three globally over a decade. However, it now faces the predicament of the Hang Seng Index falling for four consecutive years and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO fundraising hitting a 22-year low in 2023.
股民关于港股的讨论，从此前的海外资金撤出、边缘化、融资功能重伤，已升级为近期的“香港沦为国际金融中心遗址”，足见市场的绝望情绪。在2020年至2022年连续三年累计下跌近30%之后，2023年12月以来，恒生指数继续不断创年内新低，12月11日盘中一度失守16000点，当日于16201点收市后，年内累计跌幅达18%。
Investor discussions about Hong Kong stocks have evolved from previous concerns over the withdrawal of foreign capital, marginalization, and severe damage to financing functions to recent claims that "Hong Kong has become a relic of an international financial center," reflecting the market's sense of despair. After a cumulative decline of nearly 30% over three consecutive years from 2020 to 2022, the Hang Seng Index continued to hit new lows for the year since December 2023. On December 11th, it briefly fell below the 16,000-point mark during trading. It closed at 16,201 points that day, bringing its year-to-date loss to 18%.
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