[Preview of the Weekly] Shi Lei's Column: Will Uncertainty Decrease in 2024? (AI Translation)
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- Market volatility, which measures the uncertainty of returns, expanded in 2022 but has significantly decreased in 2023, suggesting a return to certainty in global markets with predictions for a soft landing of the global economy in 2024.
- Investment strategies that were successful during the industry prosperity period of 2020-2021 faced losses in 2022-2023 due to supply-side factors dominating pricing. The article suggests that different time scales and feedback mechanisms influence asset values and market volatility.
- The author raises concerns about potential delayed feedbacks from capacity and financial cycles, pointing out issues like overcapacity in emerging manufacturing industries and unresolved pressures on U.S. medium and small banks' balance sheets, indicating that while short-term prospects seem stable, long-term uncertainties remain.
文｜石磊
By Shi Lei
“是的，世界的不确定性下降了。”这是当前市场给出的回答。
"Yes, the uncertainty in the world has decreased." This is the current response from the market.
如果说2022年是全球市场波动率急剧放大的一年，那么2023年则是大多数市场波动率回归的一年。波动率衡量的是收益率的不确定性。2022年不断放大的波动率反映全球经济的不确定性极高。
If 2022 was a year of sharply increased volatility in global markets, then 2023 is shaping up to be a year where volatility in most markets is returning to normal. Volatility measures the uncertainty of returns, and the escalating volatility throughout 2022 reflected an extremely high level of uncertainty in the global economy.
2023年全球市场波动率大幅下降，那么世界回归确定性了吗？看看各机构对2024年的全球经济展望：全球经济在2024年将软着陆，美联储将把利率降至4%左右，美股上市公司的盈利将出现恢复，油价在60—90美元/桶的区间内波动⋯⋯在当前环境中，这些估计都很有道理，市场也是如此定价，所以跟踪一致预期的投资策略大致就是跟随市场趋势。
In 2023, volatility in global markets has significantly decreased, but does this mean the world is returning to certainty? Let's examine various institutions' outlooks for the global economy in 2024: The global economy is expected to achieve a soft landing in 2024, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates to around 4%. Earnings of publicly traded companies in the U.S. are anticipated to recover, and oil prices are projected to fluctuate within the range of $60 to $90 per barrel. In the current environment, these estimates all seem reasonable, and the market is priced accordingly. Therefore, an investment strategy that tracks consensus forecasts is essentially one that follows market trends.
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