[Preview of the Weekly] Stalemate on the Battlefield: How Will the Russia-Ukraine Conflict End? (AI Translation)
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- The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is entering its second winter with no significant changes in the battlefield map since late 2022. Political solutions remain stalled, and despite international support for Ukraine, it has not achieved substantial results in securing global endorsements for 'security guarantees.'
- Ukrainian President Zelensky faces internal pressures from nearly two years of war, including public dissatisfaction with the military's corruption scandals and economic challenges. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin touts economic achievements despite sanctions, suggesting that Western measures have not had their intended effect.
- The future of the conflict is uncertain as both countries approach elections in March 2024. Western military aid to Ukraine remains a contentious issue, particularly in the U.S., where Congress debates funding amidst other national priorities. The situation on the ground could shift if Ukraine receives sufficient assistance or if there are breakthroughs in technology or negotiations.
文｜财新周刊 路尘
By Caixin Weekly's Lu Chen
乌克兰战场正迎来开战后的第二个冬天。“停滞”已成了过去一年当中，诠释俄乌交火及相关地缘政治动向的高频词。
Ukraine is bracing for its second winter since the outbreak of hostilities. "Stagnation" has become a buzzword over the past year in describing the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and related geopolitical trends.
与一年前相比，从2022年底到2023年12月的俄乌战况地图，几乎没再发生过引人关注的变化。两军的接触线仍以乌东部的卢甘斯克至南部的克里米亚一线为轴延续，在南段以赫尔松州的第聂伯河为分野，在东段则坐落于顿涅茨克与卢甘斯克两州州界略微偏东的地带。
Compared to a year ago, the map of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict from the end of 2022 to December 2023 has seen virtually no noteworthy changes. The contact line between the two armies continues along an axis stretching from Luhansk in eastern Ukraine to Crimea in the south. In the southern section, it is divided by the Dnieper River in Kherson Oblast, while in the eastern section, it is located slightly east of the border between Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
实体战场上的漫长僵持，伴生着政治解决的止步不前。战事发展至今，和谈始终未能真正进入俄乌双方的讨论议程。尽管美国和欧洲仍重申对乌克兰的支持，俄罗斯在国际上的孤立局面也远未打开；但开战22个月以来，乌克兰仍徘徊在欧盟与北约的门外，其在全球范围内争取各国背书“安全保障”的努力，也未收获实际成果。
The prolonged stalemate on the physical battlefield has been accompanied by a standstill in political resolutions. As the conflict has unfolded, peace talks have never truly entered the discussion agenda for either Russia or Ukraine. Although the United States and Europe continue to reaffirm their support for Ukraine, Russia's international isolation remains unbroken; however, 22 months since the outbreak of hostilities, Ukraine still lingers outside the doors of the European Union and NATO, and its efforts to secure global endorsements for "security guarantees" have yet to yield tangible results.
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