Xu Xiaoqing's Column: Patiently Awaiting A-Shares to Blossom (AI Translation)
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- The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has experienced a historic five-month decline since August 2023, with the trend continuing into early 2024, nearing its lowest point since 2018.
- A-shares faced a 'Davis Double Play' in 2023 due to profit declines and valuation drops, attributed to rising US bond yields and outflows of northbound funds (foreign investment), despite a slowdown in these trends recently.
- Concerns about China's long-term economic risks include fears of 'Japanification,' loss of manufacturing competitiveness due to US-China decoupling, and an ongoing real estate downturn; however, the author believes in China's economic resilience and potential for recovery.
文｜徐小庆
By Xu Xiaoqing
自2023年8月以来，沪深300已连续五个月下跌，这是历史首次；2024年年初至今颓势依旧，距离2018年的最低点只有约10%的下跌空间。
Since August 2023, the CSI 300 Index has experienced a consecutive five-month decline for the first time in history; the downward trend has continued since the beginning of 2024, with only about a 10% drop remaining before reaching its lowest point in 2018.
2023年A股经历了盈利下滑和估值杀跌的“戴维斯双击”。市场普遍将估值下跌归结为美债收益率持续回升，以海外投资者为代表的北向资金持续大幅流出。但2023年四季度以来美债收益率见顶回落，北向流出速度放缓，A股却未现反弹。基于国开债收益率计算的沪深300风险溢价接近7%，时隔一年多回到疫情管控放开前的高位；基于美债收益率和锁汇成本计算的风险溢价高达9%，再创历史新高。
In 2023, China's A-share market experienced a "double whammy" of declining earnings and valuation de-rating. The general consensus attributes the fall in valuations to the continuous rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the substantial outflow of northbound capital, predominantly from overseas investors. However, since the fourth quarter of 2023, despite U.S. Treasury yields peaking and falling, with a slowdown in the pace of northbound outflows, there has been no rebound in the A-share market. The risk premium for the CSI 300 Index based on China Development Bank bond yields is close to 7%, returning to its high level before pandemic control measures were relaxed after more than a year; while the risk premium calculated based on U.S. Treasury yields and currency hedging costs has reached as high as 9%, setting a new historical record.
可以认为，当前A股下跌和短期经济基本面的变化及企业盈利周期关系不大，更多体现投资者担忧中国长期风险。
It can be argued that the current decline in A-shares is less related to short-term changes in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings cycles, and more reflective of investors' concerns about long-term risks in China.
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