Shi Lei's Column: Beware the Pitfalls of Experience (AI Translation)
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- The investment landscape has been challenging with broken macroeconomic cycles, unprecedented asset valuations, and experienced investors struggling.
- Chinese stocks appear cheap while U.S. stocks are expensive; however, valuations should consider future earnings trends to be complete.
- The sustainability of the current financial state is questioned, with factors like U.S. net savings decline potentially affecting the dollar's value and international monetary system credibility.
文｜石磊
By Shi Lei
过去两年，宏观周期的经验被打破，资产估值的经验区间被突破，甚至在题材江湖里游龙戏凤的“老法师”也马失前蹄，市场环境对投资老将极具挑战。
Over the past two years, the experience of macroeconomic cycles has been disrupted, the traditional ranges for asset valuations have been breached, and even seasoned "old masters" who were adept at playing with market themes have stumbled. The market environment presents significant challenges for veteran investors.
2024年开年，市场表现更为极端，中证全指市净率跌至2005年以来历史最低水平，十年期国债利率跌破2.5%，距离疫情期最低值仅余2个基点（BP），黄金价格不断创历史新高。这些历史估值区间可能已不可靠，若不回到第一性（原理），历史直观经验可能把我们带到深渊。
At the start of 2024, market performance became more extreme, with the China Securities All Index's price-to-book ratio falling to its lowest level since 2005. The yield on ten-year government bonds dropped below 2.5%, just 2 basis points (BP) away from the record low during the pandemic period, while gold prices continued to reach historic highs. These historical valuation ranges may no longer be reliable; without returning to first principles, relying on historical intuition could lead us into an abyss.
目前，无论是用市盈率、市净率，还是用股债相比的权益风险溢价来衡量，A股十分便宜，美股极度昂贵，但这些估值指标都是静态的。从第一性看，股票的估值模型需要对未来盈利趋势给出判断，才能有完整的估值。就是说，如果A股资本回报率长期下降，美股资本回报率长期上升，则现在的定价可能是合理的。
Currently, whether measured by price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, or the equity risk premium compared to bonds, A-shares are very cheap and U.S. stocks are extremely expensive. However, these valuation indicators are static. From a fundamental perspective, stock valuation models require a judgment on future earnings trends to have a complete valuation. In other words, if the long-term capital return rate of A-shares declines and that of U.S. stocks rises, then the current pricing may be justified.
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