Xu Xiaoqing's Column: Increased Risk of Adjustment in U.S. Stocks (AI Translation)
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- Since early 2024, U.S. markets showed a trend of rising stocks and falling bonds due to increased confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy. However, January's CPI data suggests a shift towards synchronized movement between stocks and bonds, with rising bond yields indicating higher adjustment risks for stocks.
- January's core CPI rose to 0.4%, with core services rebounding sharply, suggesting inflation resilience is strengthening rather than weakening. This has led to reduced market expectations for rate cuts within the year.
- Risks for U.S. stock adjustments are increasing due to factors like rising bond yields, concentrated gains in few tech giants, and potential liquidity tightening if the Federal Reserve maintains its pace of balance sheet reduction.
文｜徐小庆
By Xu Xiaoqing
2024年年初以来，美国市场整体呈现股涨债跌走势，美股和美债出现背离的核心原因在于，市场认为美国经济软着陆的概率显著上升。
Since the beginning of 2024, the overall trend in the U.S. market has been one of rising stocks and falling bonds. The core reason for this divergence between U.S. equities and treasuries lies in the market's increased belief in the likelihood of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.
但在美国1月CPI数据公布后，笔者认为市场的交易逻辑正在变化，美股和美债很可能重回同向的驱动模式，如果美债收益率继续回升，美股的调整风险也会加大。1月核心CPI环比摆脱了2023年下半年0.2%—0.3%的波动区间，再次走高至0.4%。从核心CPI的构成看，尽管核心商品价格继续下跌，但核心服务环比大幅回升至近0.7%，创疫情以来第二高。服务分项对通胀的推升贡献更大，意味着通胀的韧性似乎没有减弱，反而增强了。
However, following the release of the U.S. CPI data for January, it appears that the market's trading logic is shifting, with U.S. stocks and bonds likely to return to a synchronous driving mode. If U.S. bond yields continue to rise, the adjustment risk for U.S. stocks could also increase. The core CPI in January broke free from the fluctuation range of 0.2%—0.3% seen in the second half of 2023, climbing again to 0.4%. Looking at the composition of the core CPI, although core goods prices continued to decline, core services rebounded significantly to nearly 0.7%, marking the second highest since the pandemic began. The larger contribution of service sub-items to inflation suggests that inflation's resilience may not have weakened but rather strengthened.
目前还难以断定1月的通胀数据是否因为异常天气带来季调失真，但从货币供应量看，美国通胀回落速度不及之前乐观。2023年11月至12月美国广义货币（M2）再次出现连续两个月正增长，这使得货币供应量回归合理水平需要更长时间，通胀也就显示出更强韧性。
It remains uncertain whether the inflation data for January was distorted by seasonal adjustments due to unusual weather conditions. However, judging from the money supply, the pace at which inflation in the United States is declining is less optimistic than previously anticipated. Between November and December 2023, the broad money supply (M2) in the U.S. experienced two consecutive months of positive growth. This indicates that returning the money supply to a reasonable level will take longer, demonstrating greater resilience in inflation.
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