Martin Wolf: With the Right Choices, China Can Maintain High Growth Rate(AI Translation)
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- Martin Wolf, a chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, remains optimistic about China's economic future, believing it's too early to declare that China has reached its peak. He suggests that with timely and appropriate responses to current challenges, China could maintain a 5%-6% growth rate over the next 10-20 years.
- Wolf compares China's potential economic trajectory to South Korea rather than Japan, highlighting Korea's ability to overcome crises without stagnating. He emphasizes the importance of internal demand for growth and suggests that China can avoid the pitfalls of excessive savings seen in developed economies by focusing on fiscal policies to stimulate domestic consumption.
- Wolf advocates for decisive reforms in various areas including reducing excessive savings, reforming fiscal systems, income redistribution, improving social welfare, and encouraging innovation to boost productivity. He believes these measures can lay a foundation for sustainable growth and help China double its GDP per capita by the 2040s and join high-income countries by the 2050s.
文｜财新周刊 王力为 王石玉
By Caixin Weekly's Wang Liwei, Wang Shiyu
英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁·沃尔夫（Martin Wolf）是对中国经济前景的持续观察者，也是当下对中国经济前景保持积极乐观的外国专家之一，他认为，“现在说‘中国（经济发展）已到巅峰’，尚且言之过早”。
Martin Wolf, the Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, is a consistent observer of China's economic future and one of the foreign experts currently maintaining a positive outlook on it. He believes that "it is still too early to say that 'China (economic development) has reached its peak'."
甲辰龙年春节假期刚过，沃尔夫来到北京。他此行主要是受国务院发展研究中心之邀，于2024年2月20日、21日分别就“多元危机下的全球经济”和“世界经济下的中国宏观角色”做讲座。22日，他受中国发展研究基金会之邀，就“中美欧与世界秩序的未来”做了讲座。加上在中国社科院和一家非官方智库的演讲，77岁的他在三天内共做了五场讲座。
Just after the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Water Dragon, Wolff arrived in Beijing. His visit was primarily at the invitation of the Development Research Center of the State Council, where he delivered lectures on "The Global Economy under Multiple Crises" and "China's Macro Role in the World Economy" on February 20th and 21st, 2024, respectively. On the 22nd, at the invitation of the China Development Research Foundation, he spoke on "The Future of China-US-Europe Relations and World Order." Including his talks at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a non-governmental think tank, the 77-year-old gave a total of five lectures over three days.
此行期间，沃尔夫与多位中国政策人士、经济学家、业界人士会面。离开北京前，他接受了财新专访。在两个多小时的交流中，他坦言，对于中国经济的前景，他似乎比不少中国朋友更为“乐观”，因为“在我看来，中国当前面临的问题都是有解决之策的。如果应对及时得当，中国经济在未来10年乃至20年里可以保持5%—6%的增长。”
During his visit, Wolff met with numerous Chinese policymakers, economists, and industry professionals. Before leaving Beijing, he gave an exclusive interview to Caixin. In the more than two hours of conversation, he candidly expressed that he seems more "optimistic" about the prospects of China's economy than many of his Chinese counterparts. He believes that "in my view, the problems China is currently facing are solvable. If addressed promptly and appropriately, China's economy can maintain a growth rate of 5%—6% over the next 10 to 20 years."
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