Short-Term Bull Runs Overheat the Bond Market: Who Faces the Greatest Risk? (AI Translation)
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- After three months of bullish bond market, yields began to rise in March 2024, signaling a potential pause in the bull run amid increasing trading enthusiasm and emerging risks.
- Record low yields were observed for 10-year and 30-year government bonds by early March 2024, but yields rebounded within a week, reflecting market volatility and divided future outlooks among investors.
- The surge in bond investments is driven by demand for asset allocation amidst a backdrop of monetary easing. However, concerns arise over the sustainability of this trend due to speculative trading behaviors and the potential for rapid adjustments if market conditions change.
文｜财新周刊 王石玉 全月 范浅蝉
By Caixin Weekly's Wang Shiyu, Quan Yue, Fan Qianchan
债市经历了三个月的火热行情后，自2024年3月以来多空力量初现博弈，债券收益率有所回升。这是否意味着债券牛市将按下暂停键？交易热情持续升温的背后，又蕴藏着哪些风险？
After three months of heated activity, the bond market has seen a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces since March 2024, with bond yields beginning to rebound. Does this signal a pause in the bond bull market? What risks lie behind the continued surge in trading enthusiasm?
2023年12月以来，10年期和30年期国债收益率持续下行。至2024年3月6日，10年期国债收益率收盘报2.280%，创历史低位；次日30年期国债收益率收盘也触及新低，报2.434%。在此期间，二者收益率的最大跌幅分别超过390个基点（BP）和510BP。由于债券发行时的票面价格固定，到期收益率下行，意味着债券交易价格上涨，是牛市的特征。
Since December 2023, the yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds have continued to decline. By March 6, 2024, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond closed at a historic low of 2.280%; the following day, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also reached a new low, closing at 2.434%. During this period, the maximum decrease in yields for both was over 390 basis points (BP) and 510 BP respectively. Since the face value of bonds is fixed at issuance, a decrease in yield to maturity implies an increase in bond trading prices, characteristic of a bull market.
不过3月7日之后，长期国债收益率开始探底回升。截至3月14日，10年期国债收益率收于2.342%，30年期国债收益率收于2.535%，分别较一周前的历史低点回升62BP和101BP。相应期限的国债交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）也随之震荡。上证10年期国债ETF的单位净值由2023年12月的123元一路升至3月6日的最高127元，截至3月14日小幅回落至126.5元左右；鹏扬中债—30年期国债ETF的单位净值同期也由103元左右最高涨至114.8元，随后回落至112元。
However, after March 7, the long-term treasury yields began to rebound from their lows. As of March 14, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed at 2.342%, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond closed at 2.535%, respectively rising by 62 basis points (BP) and 101 BP from their historical lows a week earlier. Correspondingly, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for government bonds of similar maturities also experienced fluctuations. The net asset value per unit of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-Year Government Bond ETF climbed from CNY 123 in December 2023 to a peak of CNY 127 on March 6, before slightly falling back to around CNY 126.5 as of March 14; similarly, the Pengyang ChinaBond -30 Year Government Bond ETF's net asset value per unit rose from around CNY 103 to a high of CNY 114.8 in the same period, then dropped back to CNY 112.
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