[Early Access to Weekly] Hong Kong's Property Market Sees Modest Recovery Following Easing Measures, Mainland Buyers Become Key Drivers (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 文思敏 发自香港
By Wen Simin, Caixin Weekly, reporting from Hong Kong
“‘撤辣’的第一周，光是我一个人每天就能至少收到七八十宗来自内地同事的查询，电话多到接不过来，公司甚至派了两位同事来帮我处理。”胡亚洲是中原地产（中国）香港办公室的高级主任，负责内地与香港业务联动，香港楼市政策调控后，许多中原的内地销售人员接到客户的咨询意向，纷纷联系胡亚洲查询政策细节以及楼盘推荐。
“In the first week after the ‘cooling measures’ were lifted, I personally received at least 70 to 80 inquiries a day from my mainland colleagues—the volume of calls was more than I could handle. The company even assigned two colleagues to help me deal with them,” said Hu Yazhou, Senior Director at Centaline Property (China) in the Hong Kong office, who is responsible for coordinating business between the mainland and Hong Kong. Following the Hong Kong real estate market policy adjustments, many mainland sales staff at Centaline received inquiries from clients and contacted Hu Yazhou for policy details and property recommendations.
在香港做地产代理20年的潘彦波也感受到楼市的火热，“2月底到3月，我平均每三天就能做成一单，不仅要带客户看房、帮他们递交一手新房的购楼意向书，还要跟业主谈价、签单，那真是忙得连饭都吃不上，热烈气氛远超2023年‘小阳春’”。在“撤辣”之前，潘彦波曾感慨就连看房的客户都少了，一个月能成交一单都算很不错。
Pan Yanbo, who has worked as a real estate agent in Hong Kong for 20 years, also feels the heat of the property market. “From late February to March, I was closing a deal on average every three days. Not only did I have to show properties to clients and help them submit purchase intention forms for new homes, but I also had to negotiate prices with homeowners and sign contracts. I was so busy that I barely had time to eat. The enthusiastic atmosphere far surpassed the ‘mini spring’ of 2023,” he said. Before the government lifted property cooling measures, Pan lamented that he rarely had prospective buyers even viewing properties, and closing even one deal per month was considered very good.
香港楼市的低迷气氛已经持续数月，无论楼价还是交易量都处于低位，差饷物业估价署数据显示，2月香港二手私人住宅的售价指数已经连续十个月下跌，同比跌幅高达12.77%。2024年2月28日，特区财政司司长陈茂波在《财政预算案》中提出，即日撤销所有住宅物业需求管理措施——又称“撤辣”——这一持续十余年的楼市“辣招”从此成为历史。“撤辣”意味着，在港的所有住宅物业交易均无须再缴付额外印花税、买家印花税和新住宅印花税，外地买家在港买房享受港人同等待遇，购买多套房也无需再额外交税，业主购房后也可以短时间内转售。
Hong Kong’s real estate market has been mired in a prolonged slump for several months, with both home prices and transaction volumes lingering at low levels. According to data from the Rating and Valuation Department, the price index for second-hand private residential properties in Hong Kong declined for the tenth consecutive month in February, dropping 12.77% year-on-year. On February 28, 2024, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po announced in the Fiscal Budget that all residential property demand-management measures—commonly known as "spicy measures"—would be lifted with immediate effect, marking the end of more than a decade of these policies. The removal of these curbs means that all residential property transactions in Hong Kong are now exempt from additional stamp duties, the Buyer's Stamp Duty, and the New Residential Stamp Duty. Foreign buyers now enjoy the same treatment as local buyers when purchasing property, and buyers acquiring multiple units are no longer subject to extra taxes. Homeowners can also resell their properties in a short period without incurring additional levies.
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- Hong Kong removed all property cooling measures on Feb 28, 2024, immediately boosting transaction volumes; new home sales exceeded 400 units in early March.
- By mid-April, market enthusiasm softened, with inquiries and transactions slowing and prices easing. Developers offer competitive new projects amidst high inventory.
- Mainland buyers, including "Hong Kong drifters" and investors, actively entered. Banks maintain caution, disincentivizing speculation. High interest rates remain a challenge.
In the wake of Hong Kong's total removal of decade-long property curbs ("撤辣") on February 28, 2024, the real estate market experienced an immediate and dramatic rebound, particularly from mainland Chinese buyers and investors. Key agents reported a surge in inquiries and transactions: for example, Centaline Property's Hong Kong office saw an individual staff member receiving 70–80 mainland client queries daily, necessitating additional staff support. Veteran agent Pan Yanbo described unprecedented activity surpassing even prior short-lived booms, with deal frequency rising from one per month to one every three days during the initial surge [para. 1].
Before the policy shift, the market had been subdued for months, with both housing prices and transaction volumes at historic lows; the official second-hand private residential price index had declined for ten consecutive months, with a 12.77% year-on-year fall by February 2024. The abrupt "unspicing" eliminated all stamp duties and surcharges targeting speculators and non-local buyers, granting them parity with locals in taxes and purchase restrictions. As a result, new home sales exceeded 400 units in just four days from February 29 to March 3—more than the entire month of February—and major developments saw second-hand deals jump over 3.5 times, reaching a 61-week high [para. 3].
However, after 1.5 months, momentum waned: by mid-April, daily mainland buyer inquiries dropped to about 20, and both primary and secondary transaction activity slowed, with price indices dipping 1.5% weekly after a brief three-week rise. Market professionals note the rally was primarily "volume without significant price appreciation," and worry about inventory overhang [para. 4][para. 6].
A landmark event illustrated buyers' enthusiasm: the launch of the Blue Coast project in early April, with 2.8 million expressions of interest for just 422 apartments, selling 406 units in a day—realizing close to HK$7.5 billion, a record since new sales rules in 2013. Developers, eager to liquidate large backlogs (with unsold ready-to-occupy flats hitting 20,000 by end-2023 and potential supply near 51,000), priced new releases aggressively low, even below cost in some cases, to capture pent-up demand before saturation set in. In one week, new homes enjoyed their highest monthly transactions since 1998 [para. 7][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10].
Mainland buyers played pivotal roles: they comprised up to 30% of new home sales, particularly favouring projects under HK$10 million. New talent and investment migration programs brought in 194,000 approvals in 2023—tripling from 2022—with many looking to settle long-term and invest. Developers even staged mainland roadshows to attract out-of-region buyers; around 70% of luxury home buyers post-reform were mainlanders. Small flats priced between HK$3–6 million drew investors thanks to higher rental yields versus lacklustre capital appreciation prospects [para. 13][para. 16][para. 17][para. 18][para. 19].
A phenomenon dubbed "cake buyers"—bulk-buying investors—re-emerged, accounting for about 15% of early post-curb transaction value, with single buyers sometimes purchasing dozens of units. However, the current rally remains volume-driven rather than price-fuelled, and banks have imposed tighter mortgage policies to dissuade speculation, refusing short-term flipping ("Confirmor") loans and cutting mortgage subsidies [para. 20][para. 22][para. 25].
While the "mini spring" brought a refresher to sentiment, its sustainability is questioned. By mid-April, trading volumes slowed, bargains evaporated, and many buyers shifted to wait-and-see mode, especially as U.S. interest rate cuts looked less likely and high Hong Kong mortgage rates persisted. Analysts predict only modest price increases (0–3% in 1H 2024, possibly 5–7% annually if rate cuts emerge in H2), with overall transaction levels expected to rebound by 30–40% but prices to remain mostly flat given persistent headwinds: high rates, abundant supply, and global uncertainties [para. 27][para. 29][para. 30][para. 32][para. 34].
In sum, Hong Kong’s property market found a temporary upturn from the abrupt policy change, supported by robust demand from both end-users and mainland investors, but faces substantial hurdles in sustaining long-term momentum and price growth in a high-interest and high-supply environment [para. 35][para. 36].
- Centaline Property
中原地产 - Centaline Property is a real estate agency with operations spanning mainland China and Hong Kong, as evidenced by its Hong Kong office coordinating with mainland sales staff. The company facilitates cross-border property inquiries and collaborates with developers, like CK Asset for Blue Coast's mainland roadshows. Centaline also boasts a research department, providing market analysis and data, indicating a comprehensive presence in the real estate sector.
- Cheung Kong Property Holdings
长江实业 - Cheung Kong Property Holdings (长江实业), or CK Asset, co-developed the Blue Coast project. An executive director revealed the project's discounted average price was 20% below its cost, reflecting a low-price strategy aimed at quick capital recovery. CK Asset partnered with Centaline Property for mainland China roadshows for Blue Coast, with 30% of the project's first-round buyers originating from the mainland.
- MTR Corporation
港铁 - MTR Corporation (00066.HK) is mentioned as a co-developer of the Blue Coast property. This new large-unit residential project is located in Hong Kong Island South, offering convenient transportation with direct elevator access to the Wong Chuk Hang MTR Station.
- Midland Realty
美联物业 - Midland Realty is referenced in the article through its Chief Analyst, Sammy Po (Liu Jiahui). He reported a significant rebound in Hong Kong's primary property market, with transaction volume in March soaring over 14 times compared to February, reaching 4200 units. This figure marked the highest single-month total since 1998.
- Cushman & Wakefield
戴德梁行 - Cushman & Wakefield's Hong Kong senior director for valuation and advisory, Raymond Li, commented on developers' building loan costs. Their data indicates that over half of secondary property market transactions after "撤辣" were low-priced. The firm's Executive Director and Head of Hong Kong Research, Dorothy Tang, notes released purchasing power. They forecast a 30-40% rise in 2024 residential transactions, expecting prices to stabilize with a potential 0-7% annual increase.
- Ricacorp Properties
利嘉阁地产 - Ricacorp Properties (利嘉阁地产) is a real estate agency mentioned in the article. Chan Hoi Chiu, Head of its Research Department, stated on April 10th that high-value second-hand homes in Hong Kong were largely absorbed, leading to scarcity. He noted that sellers narrowed negotiation spaces due to improved market conditions, and developers' competitive pricing on new projects further constrained second-hand transactions.
- Henderson Land Development
恒基地产 - Henderson Land Development (00012.HK) launched Belgravia Place in Cheung Sha Wan, the first new project to go on sale after Hong Kong's property cooling measures were lifted. Its first batch sold out within four hours, significantly attracting Mainland investors, particularly for its affordable smaller units. Notably, a single buyer acquired 24 top-floor units for HK$166 million, the largest single new unit purchase recorded since December 2017.
- CBRE Group
世邦魏理仕 - Francis Kwok, Executive Director of Valuation and Advisory Services at CBRE Hong Kong, observed that Hong Kong banks currently hold HKD 9 trillion in time deposits, a significant increase of HKD 2 trillion compared to before interest rate hikes. He anticipates that a future decrease in interest rates would likely release further investment buying power in the market.
- K. Wah International
嘉华国际 - K. Wah International is mentioned in the article as its Marketing and Sales Director (Hong Kong Properties), Raymond Wan, stated that over 80% of recent transactions for Kai Tak Riviera were made by mainland buyers or new Hong Kong residents. This highlights their involvement in the Hong Kong property market and the client demographics they are observing.
- Knight Frank
莱坊 - Knight Frank's Head of Research and Consulting for Greater China, stated that large sums of money leaving mainland China face pressure, suggesting some mainland buyers in Hong Kong might be property converters. Knight Frank predicts Hong Kong property prices will decrease by 3-5% in H1 2024, showing an L-shaped trend, with stabilization expected in H2 due to anticipated US interest rate cuts and reduced inventory.
- Hang Seng Bank
恒生银行 - Hang Seng Bank is one of Hong Kong's three major retail banks mentioned in the article. Since mid-March, along with HSBC and Bank of China Hong Kong, it has significantly cut cash rebates for "re-mortgage" clients to zero. After the lifting of housing market cooling measures, Hang Seng Bank, HSBC, and Standard Chartered publicly announced they would not offer "Confirmor" mortgages, demonstrating a conservative stance against speculation in the property market.
- Bank of China Hong Kong
中银香港 - Bank of China Hong Kong (BOC Hong Kong) is identified as one of the three major retail banks in the region. Since mid-March, BOC Hong Kong, along with other large banks, has significantly reduced cash rebates for "re-mortgage" customers to zero. For new mortgage loans, its cash rebates were also cut from a peak of 1.5% to 0.5%, a move aimed at curbing property speculation.
- HSBC
汇丰银行 - HSBC, one of Hong Kong's major retail banks, has adopted a conservative stance on property financing after the "Spicy Measures" were lifted. Since mid-March, HSBC, alongside other large banks, significantly reduced cash rebates for "re-mortgage" customers to zero. Furthermore, they publicly declared they would not provide mortgages for "Confirmor" transactions, a form of short-term property flipping, to curb speculative practices in the market.
- Standard Chartered Bank
渣打银行 - After Hong Kong removed its property market cooling measures ("spicy measures"), Standard Chartered Bank, along with other major banks like HSBC and Hang Seng, publicly announced they would not process "confirmor" mortgages. This move aims to curb short-term speculative property flipping, where buyers profit by reselling contracts before completion.
- J.P. Morgan
摩根大通 - On April 15, 2024, J.P. Morgan (摩根大通) published a report stating that Hong Kong's residential property market showed signs of losing momentum after a brief policy-driven stimulus. J.P. Morgan analysts identified high interest rates and the expectation of falling property prices as two major issues undermining confidence for both investment and owner-occupancy.
- UBS Group
瑞银集团 - According to its latest report, UBS Group suggests that due to strong US economic growth and persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates rather than cut them. UBS predicts potential rate hikes by early 2025, with federal funds rates possibly reaching 6.5% by mid-2025 if inflation and growth remain elevated. This outlook is presented as negative news for the Hong Kong property market.
- December 2017：
- Previous record for largest bulk purchase of new homes before March 11, 2024, when a buyer bought multiple properties.
- 2022：
- Hong Kong's property market began to decline after more than a decade of growth prior to the pandemic.
- In 2022 and 2023：
- Hong Kong's annual residential transactions stood at 45,000 (2022) and 43,000 (2023), well below usual 50,000–60,000.
- 2023：
- Annual residential property transaction volumes reached 43,000, more than tripling the previous year's new talent admission scheme approvals to 194,000.
- As of the end of 2023：
- The number of completed but unsold residential units in Hong Kong reached 20,000, a record since tracking began.
- Spring 2023：
- Hong Kong real estate market experienced a brief ‘mini spring’ with property price rebound lasting four consecutive months, up 5.83%, followed by ten months of decline.
- October 2023：
- Hong Kong Policy Address announced the ‘pay later’ exemption on stamp duty for non-local talents purchasing property.
- February 28, 2024：
- Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po announced in the Fiscal Budget that all residential property demand-management measures (the 'spicy measures') would be lifted with immediate effect.
- February 29, 2024：
- Full removal of property market cooling measures took effect. Xiao Ka signed the contract for a property purchase.
- February 29 – March 3, 2024：
- More than 400 new home transactions occurred, surpassing all of February 2024.
- March 2–3, 2024：
- First weekend after the removal of property curbs saw 27 transactions in ten major housing estates, the highest in 61 weeks.
- March 11, 2024：
- A single buyer acquired all 24 top-floor units at phase one of Belgravia Place for HK$166 million; by this date, at least 92 groups executed bulk purchases since Feb 28, 2024.
- March 15, 2024：
- Centaline Property and CK Asset Holdings launched a Blue Coast project roadshow targeting the Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Economic Rim.
- By mid-March 2024：
- 20–30% of new home sales in Hong Kong driven by mainland Chinese buyers.
- March 25, 2024：
- JLL reported mainland buyers accounted for 70% of new luxury home sales above HK$30 million after curbs were lifted.
- April 6, 2024：
- Blue Coast opened for sale. 406 residential units sold on its first day, setting record for single-day sales since April 2013.
- April 6, 2024, 10 a.m.：
- Sale of Blue Coast officially started with crowds gathering at Fortune Metropolis mall.
- As late as April 6, 2024, 3 p.m.：
- Many prospective buyers for Blue Coast were still waiting to select homes.
- April 9, 2024：
- By this date, there were 5,543 new home transactions in Hong Kong, 70% of which were small- to medium-sized units below HK$10 million.
- April 10, 2024：
- Ricacorp Properties Research head Chen Haichao commented on tightening prices in the secondary market due to developer competition.
- April 12, 2024：
- Hu Yazhou reported drop in mainland inquiry volume to 20/day; CCL recorded a 1.5% week-on-week price decline after three weeks of gains.
- April 13, 2024：
- Blue Coast's second round of sales sold 125 units. At least 12 new developments were put up for sale this weekend.
- April 13–14, 2024：
- Only 9 transactions recorded in Hong Kong's top ten housing estates, with about 200 primary market transactions.
- April 15, 2024：
- JPMorgan reported Blue Coast's second round sell-through rate dropped to 68% after prices rose about 3%.
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