Israel and Iran's Brinkmanship Threatens Global Economy (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】以色列与伊朗边缘博弈“点到为止”战争风险威胁全球经

On April 13, 2024, a significant escalation occurred in the Middle East as Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles towards Israel, marking a direct confrontation between the two nations [para. 1]. This attack was in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on April 1 that targeted an Iranian facility in Syria, killing several Iranian officers [para. 5]. The U.S., closely allied with Israel, was prepared for this assault due to prior warnings from Iran. Despite the scale of the attack, Israel's defense systems intercepted most of the incoming threats, resulting in minimal damage and only one civilian injury [para. 6].

The U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli officials responded cautiously to avoid further escalation. Biden advised Israel to refrain from retaliatory actions since their defense systems had effectively neutralized the threat [para. 7]. Meanwhile, Iran declared a symbolic victory but expressed intentions to de-escalate tensions, emphasizing that their operation was a defensive response to Israel's earlier aggression [para. 8].

Historically, Iran and Israel were allies during the early years of Israel's statehood under the "Periphery Doctrine," which sought alliances with non-Arab states like Iran. However, relations deteriorated after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution when it adopted a hostile stance towards Israel [para. 9][para. 10]. Over recent decades, both countries have engaged in indirect conflicts through proxies rather than direct confrontations. This has included Israeli actions against Iranian interests in Syria and vice versa through groups like Hezbollah and Hamas supported by Iran [para. 11][para. 12].

The recent direct conflict represents a significant shift from their usual engagement through proxy wars. It raises concerns about potential miscalculations leading to broader regional conflicts involving nuclear capabilities both countries possess or are believed to possess [para. 13][para. 14]. The international community remains wary of these developments potentially destabilizing not just the region but affecting global security and economic stability.

Following the April 13 attack, both nations showed restraint; Israel conducted a limited counterstrike on April 19 targeting an Iranian military base without escalating further. Oil markets reacted briefly with price spikes due to fears of wider conflict but stabilized soon after as it became clear that both sides were not seeking further escalation at this time [para. 15].

This series of events underscores the fragile balance of power in the Middle East where historical grievances, geopolitical strategies, and international diplomacy intersect complexly. The ongoing tensions highlight critical questions about future engagements between these nations and how they will navigate their longstanding animosities without crossing into large-scale war [para. 16].