What Is Causing Strong, Destructive Winds and How Can We Predict Them? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 王硕
By Caixin Weekly's Wang Shuo
通常认知中，风暴来临时躲在家里，是较为稳妥的避险方式。但两个月前发生在江西南昌的强风吹落居民事件，给现代社会用钢筋水泥打造起的安全感蒙上了一层阴影。3月31日凌晨，南昌市南昌县清水湾社区一居民住宅小区遭强风袭击，同一栋高层住宅中，居住在11层和20层的三位居民被强风从家中窗户吹出坠亡，其中包括同处一个房间的祖孙两人。
It is commonly believed that staying indoors during a storm is a safer way to avoid risks. However, the strong wind incident that occurred in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, two months ago has cast a shadow over the sense of security provided by modern, steel-and-concrete-built society. In the early hours of March 31, a residential community in Qingshuiwan, Nanchang County, Nanchang City, was hit by strong winds. In a high-rise building of the same community, three residents—living on the 11th and 20th floors—were blown out of their windows and fell to their deaths. Among the victims were a grandmother and her grandchild who were in the same room.
此次南昌县风灾过程中，多处城镇居民楼、农村住宅、学校及工业厂房等建筑屋面、围护结构出现不同程度受损，部分农村住宅和工地临时建筑出现主体结构坍塌。截至目前，官方尚未发布过对该事件的调查结果。
During the windstorm in Nanchang County, numerous urban residential buildings, rural houses, schools, and industrial plant roofs and enclosures sustained varying degrees of damage. Some rural houses and temporary construction site structures experienced structural collapses. As of now, officials have yet to release any investigation results regarding this incident.
5月30日下午，北京突发强对流天气，强风摧折树木、威胁高空作业人员安全。北京地铁13号线一度因树木侵入限界，导致部分区段列车延误。据北京市气象局监测，在此次强对流天气过程中，北京大部地区出现8—10级短时大风，有5站极大风达12级（除海淀北安河站外，其余4站为高山站），其中极大风出现在丰台千灵山（海拔427米），为37.2米/秒，相当于13级风。
On the afternoon of May 30, Beijing experienced sudden severe convective weather, with strong winds uprooting trees and posing a threat to high-altitude workers. Beijing Subway Line 13 experienced delays in certain sections due to trees encroaching on the clearance boundary. According to the Beijing Meteorological Bureau, during this bout of severe convective weather, most areas in Beijing experienced short-term gales of force 8 to 10, with five stations recording extreme gusts reaching force 12 (except for Haidian Beianhe Station, the other four stations were mountain stations). The highest gusts were recorded in Fengtao Qianlingshan (elevation 427 meters), with wind speeds reaching 37.2 meters per second, equivalent to a force 13 wind.
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- In March, strong winds in Nanchang, China, led to fatalities and extensive building damage.
- Downbursts caused the wind disaster, with simulations revealing high wind pressures on buildings.
- Increased extreme weather events necessitate improved societal awareness and climate adaptability.
A severe wind incident in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, occurred on March 31, severely impacting a residential community in Qingshuiwan[para. 1]. The storm's high winds led to the deaths of three residents in a high-rise building who were blown out of their windows from the 11th and 20th floors[para. 1].
This incident is part of a broader pattern of extreme weather events being intensified by climate change, leading to increased warnings from meteorologists about the necessity to enhance weather risk awareness and climate adaptability[para. 3][para. 4]. Studies have indicated that extreme weather, including turbulence and strong wind incidents, is expected to become more frequent due to climate change[para. 4].
Following the windstorm in Nanchang, a survey by the Wind Engineering Team of Chongqing University and other collaborators concluded that a downburst caused the incident[para. 8]. Detailed numerical simulations and field investigations revealed that wind loads on the building surfaces significantly influenced the fatal accident at Weimeng Qingshui Bay community[para. 8][para. 13].
The research team’s findings showed that wind speeds during the storm varied widely, with estimations of gusts reaching up to 49.56 meters per second, categorized between level 10 and 13 on the Beaufort scale[para. 14]. Nanchang's ground radar observed maximum wind speeds of around 55 meters per second at approximately 200 meters above the ground[para. 15]. Simulations indicated that the west-facing windows of the affected building were subjected to significant pressure differences, particularly when wind directions varied around southwest 60 degrees[para. 18][para. 20].
The researchers also explored the structural wind damage at numerous typical sites in the vicinity[para. 14]. The study simulated the wind pressure and suction forces on the building, revealing that the conditions during the storm exceeded the design limits for wind loads on the high-rise[para. 16]. By analyzing the entry and movement of air within the buildings, the researchers explained the mechanism that led to the high forced winds inside apartments, particularly highlighting the "venturi effect" when air compressed through open bedroom doors[para. 23].
Further investigations linked modifications made to the balconies and windows of the buildings by residents to the exacerbated wind damage, underscoring the need for proper structural adherence to wind-load design principles[para. 27].
The research also indicated that this extreme wind event was likely caused by a downburst rather than a tornado. This was concluded based on the consistent wind direction observed in fallen trees and other damage patterns that are characteristic of downbursts[para. 30]. These localized strong winds differ from tornadoes in their scale and formation mechanisms but can be equally destructive[para. 29][para. 32].
As extreme weather events become more frequent, the complexity and destructiveness of such incidents necessitate improved forecasting, monitoring, and societal readiness to weather-related risks. The predictability of extreme wind events remains challenging, underscoring the need for robust climate adaptability measures[para. 50][para. 52].
Citing global climate models, experts warn that the frequency of extreme weather events will likely increase, driven by the rising temperatures and altered atmospheric dynamics[para. 43]. The meteorological data suggests recent years have observed increasing extreme wind incidents, although average surface wind speeds might have declined[para. 44].
The necessity to improve urban planning, infrastructure resilience, and emergency response capabilities is critical, as noted in China's climate adaptation strategies and national policies aiming for enhanced climate resilience by 2035[para. 53]. Addressing both mitigation and adaptation strategies is vital for minimizing the impacts of such extreme weather events on human lives and properties[para. 55].
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