[Weekly Early Read] In-Depth: The Stark Reality of the “Student Shortage”—How Should Educational Resources Be Redistributed? (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】深度：“学生荒”现实严峻 教育资源如何重新布局？

China’s compulsory education system faces a paradoxical crisis: while the number of students taking the national college entrance exam hit a new record in 2024, primary and secondary schools across much of the country are entering an era of declining school-age populations. This shift follows the end of an enrollment surge from the two-child policy, and projections indicate a sustained contraction of students through 2035 — a drop of approximately 78 million to about 250 million school-aged children [para. 1].

This demographic reversal is stark. In 2023 urban centers were still grappling with primary school “enrollment peaks” and overcrowded classrooms. But by 2024, over half of China’s counties face shrinking compulsory education populations, echoing earlier closures of kindergartens and now beginning to affect primary and junior middle schools [para. 1][para. 2]. Researchers predict that by 2035, the oversupply of teachers could reach 950,000 in primary schools and 330,000 in middle schools even without hiring new staff [para. 3].

This contraction does not automatically lead to better educational resources per student, especially in rural areas. Huge government investment has built rural and township boarding schools, but shifting demographics leave new schools underused or even idle [para. 4]. In the central and western provinces, ultra-small “sparrow schools” (with fewer than 10 or 50 pupils) are proliferating. Families wishing to send children to better schools in towns face rising education costs [para. 5].

Urban areas, meanwhile, will temporarily retain enrollment pressure as migrants continue to cluster in modernizing districts, but “school closure waves” are now extending to cities. For example, certain districts in Harbin have begun halting new admissions, reflecting broader, long-term challenges [para. 6].

Policy responses are underway. The Ministry of Education has, for the first time, called for forward-looking planning to adapt to population trends. Many provinces are revising resource allocations and adjusting school layouts—a process entailing a mix of school closures, consolidation, and new construction. Yet, scientific, granular planning often lags behind large-scale shifts of students from rural areas to towns, and from underpopulated to more populous regions [para. 7][para. 8].

The “student shortage” is most pronounced in the Northeast, where out-migration, low fertility, and economic decline have led to the closure of more than 60% of Heilongjiang’s primary schools over the past decade [para. 9][para. 10]. Some counties now witness annual first-grade cohorts too small for even one full school [para. 11]. This results in wasted infrastructure, vacant school buildings, difficulty reallocating teachers (whose numbers are increasingly mismatched by age and location), and, in some areas, a rise in “education immigrants” attracted by relaxed exam pressures [para. 12][para. 13][para. 14].

Central China—the populous “middle” six provinces—faces “large-scale collapse” with over four million fewer primary students projected by 2027. Henan, formerly the province with the most students sitting the college entrance exam, expects a drop of two million primary-aged children in just four years [para. 15][para. 16]. However, the shrinkage occurs unevenly, crimping resources in some rural areas while leaving urban schools overcrowded and underfunded [para. 17][para. 18][para. 19].

Meanwhile, the western provinces, vast and geographically complex, encounter unique challenges. Regional factors and past caution against large-scale closures mean ultra-small schools remain common, raising operational costs and educational inequities [para. 20][para. 21].

In major eastern cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, the picture diverges: while central zones are aging and shrinking, outer suburbs and education “hot spots” still face demand for new schools due to concentrated migration and large numbers of children from non-local families [para. 22][para. 23][para. 24]. Yet, this “influx” pressure is also changing, as migration patterns become more localized and some earlier inflow cities start to see their own education numbers plateau or dip [para. 25][para. 26].

To cope, local governments are accelerating school consolidation and promoting boarding schools, shifting education to towns and county seats [para. 27][para. 28]. Challenges include infrastructure “overbuilding,” mismatched teacher allocations, increased financial burdens on local governments, and the social integration of rural children in urbanized settings—sometimes aggravating issues like bullying and inequality [para. 29][para. 30][para. 31].

In summary, China’s education system is at a crossroads: while declining student numbers present an opportunity to reform and rationalize, there are significant risks in educational equity, resource allocation, and the social fabric of schooling. Evidence from abroad and calls from within China emphasize the need for flexible, community-centered responses, but successful adaptation will require granular data, dynamic planning, and sensitivity to local conditions [para. 32][para. 33][para. 34].