In-Depth: Does Biden Still Have a Chance After Game-Changing Trump Assassination Attempt? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 曾佳 发自美国巴特勒密尔沃基，王自励 发自北京
By Caixin Weekly’s Zeng Jia, reporting from Butler and Milwaukee, USA, and Wang Zili, reporting from Beijing
一面，是刚经历了未遂刺杀惊魂一幕的78岁前总统特朗普，尽管右半边脸流血不止，他依然在特勤人员的团团包围中向人群高举右臂，欲展示振奋和不屈的形象；另一面，则是在电视辩论中招架不住对手攻势的81岁现总统拜登，因高龄和认知能力引发舆论质疑，面临与日俱增的退选呼声——2024年这场全球高度瞩目、争夺异常激烈的美国总统大选，就在这样一连串的戏剧性突发事件的叠加之下，迈向了充满动荡和未知的选战下半程。
On one side is the 78-year-old former President Donald Trump, who recently survived an attempted assassination. Despite bleeding profusely from the right side of his face, he still raised his right arm to the crowd, encircled by Secret Service agents, striving to project an image of resilience and defiance. On the other side is the 81-year-old current President Joe Biden, struggling to fend off attacks from his opponent during a televised debate. His age and cognitive abilities have become a focal point of public scrutiny, leading to mounting calls for his withdrawal from the race. The 2024 U.S. presidential election, which has garnered immense global attention and fierce contention, is thus advancing into a tumultuous and uncertain second half, characterized by a series of dramatic and unexpected events.
2024年7月13日，特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒小镇竞选集会上遭遇的枪杀图谋，成为今年大选中足以改变竞选格局的重大转折性事件。这是自美国前总统里根在1981年于任上中枪遇刺并幸存以来，性质最严重、针对层级最高的刺杀行动。尽管特朗普所幸逃过一劫、仅受轻伤，枪击仍造成现场观众1人死亡、2人重伤。
On July 13, 2024, an assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, became a pivotal event that could reshape this year’s election landscape. This incident is the most severe and highest-level targeted assassination attempt since former U.S. President Ronald Reagan was shot and survived an assassination attempt while in office in 1981. Although Trump narrowly escaped with only minor injuries, the shooting resulted in one fatality and two serious injuries among the spectators.
这场动机至今不明的行刺，发生在2024年美国总统选战的关键时刻：事发两天后，在全国性和主要摇摆州民调均居于领先的特朗普，就在共和党全国代表大会上获得了正式的总统候选人提名，并公布了自己的竞选副手；而在突如其来的子弹擦过特朗普脸侧，造成特朗普右耳受伤流血之际，距11月5日的大选投票日仅剩下114天。
This still-mysterious assassination attempt occurred at a critical juncture in the 2024 U.S. presidential race: Just two days after the incident, Trump, who was leading in national and key swing state polls, officially received the Republican presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention and announced his running mate. The sudden bullet that grazed Trump's face, injuring his right ear, happened just 114 days before the November 5 election day.
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- Former President Donald Trump, age 78, survived an assassination attempt during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, resulting in minor injuries to Trump and fatalities and serious injuries among spectators.
- Current President Joe Biden, age 81, faces increasing scrutiny over his cognitive abilities and calls to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, trailing behind Trump by narrow margins in key polls.
- Trump's recent survival of the attack has shifted public perception, granting him sympathy and potentially impacting his campaign positively, while Biden struggles to maintain his campaign amidst internal and external pressures.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election features a fierce battle between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, both aged over 75 years and presenting themselves as resilient leaders despite various challenges. [para. 1] Trump, recently surviving an assassination attempt, announced his candidacy shortly after receiving the Republican nomination, while Biden faces increasing scrutiny over his age and cognitive abilities. [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3]
The assassination attempt on Trump happened on July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, resulting in one fatality and two serious injuries. This incident has significantly impacted the election landscape. [para. 2][para. 3] Republicans quickly used the incident to rally support for Trump, blaming Democrats and accusing them of inciting hatred against Trump. In contrast, Biden and his team condemned the attack and expressed sympathy, even temporarily removing anti-Trump ads. [para. 3][para. 4]
Despite Trump's efforts to capitalize on the incident for electoral gain, initial polls show only a slight advantage over Biden, indicating a tight race. [para. 5][para. 6] On July 15, Trump was formally nominated at the Republican National Convention, where he received enthusiastic support and announced J.D. Vance as his running mate. [para. 7][para. 8] Vance, a rising Republican star, is seen as a strategic choice focusing on the working-class voters in key swing states. [para. 9][para. 10]
Trump's assassination attempt has reshaped public discourse around him, casting him in a more sympathetic light and potentially overshadowing negative labels associated with him. However, the polls following the incident show only minor gains for Trump, indicating a closely contested battle. [para. 5][para. 6][para. 7] Trump appeared at the convention with his ear bandaged, recounted the incident, and emphasized healing societal divisions in his speech. [para. 10][para. 11]
Conversely, Biden swiftly returned to campaigning despite testing positive for COVID-19, emphasizing policy differences and adjusting his rhetoric towards Trump. [para. 12][para. 13] Biden struggles with poor polling numbers and internal party pressure, highlighting concerns about his age and capability to govern. [para. 14][para. 15][para. 16] Democratic leaders privately express concerns about Biden's chances against Trump, calling for a younger candidate to replace him. [para. 17][para. 18][para. 19]
The GOP convention solidified Trump's dominance within the party, and even former critics within the party are now uniting behind him. [para. 21][para. 22] The selection of Vance as Trump's running mate indicates a continued focus on Trump's core policies and agenda. [para. 23][para. 24][para. 25] As Trump's influence grows, moderate Republican voices are increasingly sidelined, and the focus is on a more radical agenda. [para. 26][para. 27][para. 28]
Trump's potential second term is anticipated to bring an intensified "America First" policy, leading to significant changes in both domestic and foreign policies. [para. 29][para. 30] Policies under consideration include substantial tariff increases and further tax cuts, mirroring his previous tenure's economic strategies. [para. 30][para. 31][para. 32]
Concerns persist about the future of U.S. foreign relations under Trump, particularly with NATO and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. [para. 33][para. 34] Trump's influence within the Republican party means his policies may face fewer internal challenges if re-elected. [para. 35][para. 36] The Republican convention highlighted Trump's consolidation of power and the movement towards a more radical political agenda, raising questions about the future of the Republican party and U.S. politics. [para. 37][para. 38][para. 39]
- Morning Consult
美国晨间咨询公司 - Morning Consult is a company that performed a survey on July 15, 2024, revealing that Trump had a slight lead over Biden with 46% to 45% support. The gap was within the poll's margin of error. This highlighted that the race between the two candidates remained competitive despite Trump's recent encounter with a failed assassination attempt.
- Reuters/Ipsos
路透社/益普索 - According to the article, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on July 16 showed that Donald Trump had a 43% support rate, leading Joe Biden's 41%. This 2-percentage point difference is within the poll's margin of error, indicating a closely contested race between the two candidates.
- July 13, 2024：
- An assassination attempt on Donald Trump occurs at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
- July 13, 2024：
- Donald Trump is shot and injured by a bullet that grazes his right ear during the rally.
- July 13, 2024：
- Thomas Matthew Crooks, the shooter, is fatally shot by Secret Service agents.
- July 15, 2024：
- Donald Trump receives the Republican presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention and announces J.D. Vance as his running mate.
- July 15, 2024：
- A Morning Consult survey shows Trump leading Biden by 1 percentage point, with 46% support to Biden's 45%.
- July 16, 2024：
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump leading Biden by 2 percentage points, with 43% support compared to Biden's 41%.
- July 18, 2024：
- Donald Trump delivers his first public speech since the attack, recounting the incident in a restrained and calm manner.
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