Shi Lei: Investing in an Era Lacking Consensus(AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】石磊专栏：缺乏共识时代中的投资

This content explores the current era of rapid change and lack of consensus, examining socio-economic and industrial dynamics and their impacts on global and domestic levels.

The piece begins by highlighting the diverse societal groups impacted by these changes, such as the new middle class, the content silver-haired generation, the skeptical affluent, and the vibrant youth [para. 1]. Decision-making is often based on prior knowledge influenced by historical experiences and personal values [para. 2]. When reality precludes win-win situations, individual interpretations differ, leading to fragmented cooperation [para. 3].

Globally, this pattern is observable in the U.S., where the stagnation of real wages for the working class over the past 30 years has resulted in narratives like the "Rust Belt" and "rednecks" [para. 3]. Public opinion often blames this stagnation on Chinese workers taking American jobs, though it’s actually driven by American capital benefiting the most [para. 4]. This simplistic attribution of blame fuels actions such as limiting immigration while reducing taxes for capital, exacerbating the disintegration of international cooperation [para. 5].

As international orders change, asset pricing frameworks need adjustment. Certain assets, like gold, have been increasingly revalued under new orders. Historically, gold's valuation is linked to anti-inflation measures, yet recent price rises reflect fears of changes in the monetary order, beyond just inflation or interest rates [para. 6]. Changes in the global manufacturing landscape also signal a need for a new industrial order, underpinned by an interconnected, cyclic ecosystem [para. 7].

This new order calls for the partial disintegration and restructuring of existing industrial ecosystems. Mature industries are experiencing horizontal supply-side clearing, driving trends towards oligopolies [para. 8]. Emerging industries require vertical integration, with leading enterprises setting developmental directions [para. 9]. Giants like Apple, Toyota, Tesla, and Huawei lead their respective sectors, driving the reconstruction and cash flow allocation across industry chains [para. 10].

Economically, there is a noticeable global growth slowdown with industries undergoing restructuring. Best investment opportunities pivot on oligopolies formed through horizontal integration and vertical integration leaders [para. 11]. Analyzing the A-share market illustrates the divide between long-term capital raising and short-term speculation. From 2016-2024, market capitalization saw annual growth of 6-7%, yet returns on investments hovered around zero, highlighting the market's short-term efficiency yet long-term inefficiency [para. 12][para. 13].

Given this, investors have shifted to short-term speculation, seeking quick gains rather than trusting large players. This is exacerbated by short-term-focused asset management product rankings [para. 14]. Initiatives like the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee's resolution to improve capital market functions aim to balance investment and financing, thereby fostering a long-term investment friendly environment [para. 15]. Current assessment systems for central enterprises align with this long-term vision, yet short-term investors may struggle to adapt and eventually be marginalized by patient, long-term investors [para. 16].

In conclusion, the piece calls for recognizing and adapting to these epoch-defining shifts, most notably by fostering long-term, sustainable investment practices.

Author Shi Lei, Chairman of Attract Technology, presents this analysis derived from the upcoming August 5 issue of Caixin Weekly.