China-Europe Freight Trains' Southern Route: Bypassing Russia | Overseas & Geopolitics (AI Translation)

中欧班列南通道，绕过俄罗斯｜出海·地缘

The recent departure of a China-Europe freight train from the Shandong Shanghai Cooperation Organization Demonstration Zone marks a new chapter for the Southern Corridor of the China-Europe Railway Express. This route, unlike traditional ones, bypasses Russia entirely by crossing the Caspian and Black Seas, significantly extending the journey to approximately 40 days. The urgency for an alternative path was sparked by geopolitical factors, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent EU sanctions on Russian Railways. As a result, the Southern Corridor has gained attention, with shippers preferring it over routes involving Russia, despite it primarily accounting for only 15% of the China-Europe train services in comparison to the 85% tied to Russia. [para. 1][para. 3]

European businesses have shown resistance to routes traversing Russia since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, reducing the proportion of services to just 15% from the previous 45%. Consequently, shippers have sought the Southern Corridor, which reroutes through several countries including Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Turkey, offering an alternative despite a lengthier transit time. Central Asian countries are capitalizing on this shift by promoting the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the "Middle Corridor." Established in 2016, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia pioneered this route, inviting China to participate. Xi Jinping's recent announcement in October 2023 further supports these efforts, integrating it into the Belt and Road Initiative as a strategic component. [para. 4][para. 5]

The development of the Southern Corridor, also referred to as the "Middle Corridor," has seen substantial train dispatch increases, although the total volume remains modest due to previously low figures. Despite this, the traditional routes through Russia still dominate freight transport, reflecting the corridor's auxiliary status. The demand for alternative routes has driven a sharp increase in Southern Corridor train services. For instance, in 2023, some cities optimized routes to shorten transport times significantly. Additionally, new lines and increased frequency of services have resulted, with eight cities launching Southern Corridor train services featuring significant year-over-year growth. [para. 6][para. 7]

The Southern Corridor, requiring multimodal transport solutions, involves a complex journey from China to Europe using rail, barge, and road. While improving infrastructure and increasing freight frequency, the route still faces challenges, including reliance on maritime segments prone to congestion. Logistical complexities arise from necessary coordination among various national railway systems and collaboration with shipping companies across the Caspian and Black Seas. This complexity and the connection through different transit methods delay as well as increase transportation costs compared to traditional routes. [para. 8]

While the Southern Corridor's development continues, challenges persist. Freight costs remain high, and coordination among countries along the path poses hurdles. Countries lack unified transit tariffs and customs policies. Recent efforts to streamline the corridor, such as a "single window" service, aim to enhance route efficiency. However, infrastructure upgrades and consistent regulations are essential for the Southern Corridor to compete with traditional routes and overcome its present teething troubles. Overall, despite its potential, the Southern Corridor currently serves as an auxiliary option rather than a replacement for traditional routes involving Russia. [para. 9][para. 9]