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Nov 21, 2024 06:27 PM

How Chinese Cities Can Turn 'Crisis' into 'Opportunity' Amid the Climate Crisis (AI Translation)

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2024年7月2日,湖南平江县,救援人员在城区搜救被困民众。图:中新社 杨华峰/视觉中国
2024年7月2日,湖南平江县,救援人员在城区搜救被困民众。图:中新社 杨华峰/视觉中国

文|温华 鹿璐 周伟琪

By Wen Hua, Lu Lu, Zhou Weiqi

  10月底,达纳风暴形成的强降雨在西班牙巴伦西亚地区引发洪灾,造成217人不幸罹难;今年夏季,中国出现了自1961年有完整气象观测记录以来最热的一个三伏,上海、杭州等地多人因热射病入住重症监护室……气候变化不再是远山淡影,它所带来愈发极端的天气正在影响每一个人的生活和健康。联合国环境规划署(UNEP)在《2024年排放差距报告》中指出,世界各国若不采取更积极的行动,到本世纪末,全球气温增幅或达3.1℃,灾害的极端性将进一步提高。

At the end of October, torrential rains caused by Storm Dana resulted in catastrophic flooding in Spain's Valencia region, claiming the lives of 217 people. This summer, China experienced its hottest period since complete meteorological recordings began in 1961, with many individuals in cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou requiring intensive care due to heatstroke. Climate change is no longer a distant threat; the increasingly extreme weather it brings is impacting everyone's life and health. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) highlighted in the "2024 Emissions Gap Report" that without more proactive actions from countries worldwide, global temperatures could rise by as much as 3.1°C by the end of this century, exacerbating the extremity of disasters.

  城市是居民生活、经济活动和基础设施的聚集地,也是应对气候风险的主要战场。然而,目前常见的全球气候模型生成的数据精细度仍有待提升。世界资源研究所(WRI)采用新的统计建模方法整合9个全球气候模型,综合展示了全球近1000个大城市在1.5℃和3℃情景下14个气温和降水相关气候风险指标的变化情况。研究结果表明,当升温幅度突破3℃时,中国城市所在的东亚地区将面临比欧洲、北美等地更严重的极端天气威胁。

Cities are hubs of residential life, economic activity, and infrastructure, as well as the primary battlegrounds in addressing climate risks. However, the data granularity produced by currently prevalent global climate models needs improvement. The World Resources Institute (WRI) has employed a new statistical modeling method that integrates nine global climate models to comprehensively display the changes in 14 temperature- and precipitation-related climate risk indicators for nearly 1,000 major cities worldwide under 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios. The findings indicate that when warming exceeds 3°C, East Asia, where Chinese cities are situated, will face more severe extreme weather threats compared to regions like Europe and North America.

  此次研究也包含了158个中国城市。从数据结果来看,城市们即将迎来更热、更长的夏季——相较于1.5℃升温情景,当升温幅度突破3℃时,中国城市每年的高温日数(日最高气温≥35℃)将增加70%。其中长三角和珠三角城市群将超过川渝成为全国热浪持续时间最长的地区,而西宁、呼和浩特、银川等传统意义上的避暑胜地或将出现持续超17天的热浪……这一系列预测结果显示,越来越多的城市将面临夏季空调用电负荷的挑战,这既包括用户侧制冷设备的购置,也包括政府对能源基础设施和建筑节能改造领域的新增投资。不仅如此,72%的中国城市将面临高温热浪和暴雨洪涝灾害风险同步增加的挑战,特别是山东、山西、河南、河北等地的城市,日最高温度和日最大降水量同步增加的趋势尤为显著。

This research also includes 158 Chinese cities. According to the data results, these cities are poised for hotter and longer summers. In scenarios where the temperature rise exceeds 3°C compared to a 1.5°C warming, Chinese cities will see a 70% increase in the number of high-temperature days annually (days with highs of ≥35°C). Among these, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta urban clusters will surpass Sichuan-Chongqing as the regions with the longest-lasting heatwaves nationwide. Traditional summer retreats such as Xining, Hohhot, and Yinchuan may experience heatwaves lasting over 17 consecutive days. This series of projections indicates that more cities will face challenges related to air conditioning electricity load during summer. This includes not only user-side cooling equipment purchases but also additional government investment in energy infrastructure and building energy efficiency renovations. Moreover, 72% of Chinese cities will face concurrent risks of increased heatwaves and heavy rainfall floods, especially in cities in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Hebei, where the trends of increasing daily maximum temperature and daily maximum precipitation are particularly pronounced.

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Caixin is acclaimed for its high-quality, investigative journalism. This section offers you a glimpse into Caixin’s flagship Chinese-language magazine, Caixin Weekly, via AI translation. The English translation may contain inaccuracies.
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How Chinese Cities Can Turn 'Crisis' into 'Opportunity' Amid the Climate Crisis (AI Translation)
Explore the story in 30 seconds
  • Storm Dana caused catastrophic flooding in Spain's Valencia, resulting in 217 deaths.
  • If global temperatures rise by 3°C, East Asia will face more severe weather threats than Europe or North America.
  • In China, an 80% increase in high-temperature days and frequent rainfall floods are expected, with landslide risks up by 13% in a 3°C scenario.
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Explore the story in 3 minutes

[para. 1] At the end of October, Storm Dana brought heavy rains to Spain's Valencia region, leading to catastrophic flooding and the tragic loss of 217 lives. In China, this summer was the hottest recorded since 1961, with many individuals in cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou suffering from heatstroke, necessitating intensive care treatment. These instances highlight the increasing impact of climate change on global health and safety.

[para. 2] Cities, as centers of economic activity and residence, are at the forefront of tackling climate risks, but existing global climate models lack precise data granularity. The World Resources Institute (WRI) has employed a new statistical model that integrates nine global climate models to assess changes in climate risk indicators in nearly 1,000 major cities worldwide, under 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios.

[para. 3] Focusing on Chinese cities, the study indicates that if global temperatures rise by over 3°C, these cities will experience longer and hotter summers, with a 70% increase in high-temperature days annually. The Yangtze and Pearl River Delta regions will become more prone to prolonged heatwaves, increasing the demand for air conditioning infrastructure and energy efficiency improvements.

[para. 4] Climate-related disasters, including landslides and outbreaks of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever, are expected to become more frequent in China. The WRI found that the risk of landslides in Chinese urban areas could rise by 13% if the temperature increases reach 3°C, with vector-borne disease spread days rising significantly in 103 cities.

[para. 5] China is one of the most disaster-prone countries, as evidenced by the 50.382 million people affected by floods and geological disasters in 2024 alone, leading to significant economic losses and casualties. With global temperatures expected to rise further, urban areas will face increased challenges requiring coordinated mitigation and adaptation efforts.

[para. 6] Global leaders, especially those from the G20 countries, which account for roughly 80% of greenhouse gas emissions, must demonstrate increased responsibility by drastically reducing emissions and updating climate policies. No G20 member is currently on track to meet net-zero emission targets, necessitating urgent policy revisions to curb extreme weather frequency.

[para. 7] The 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Baku saw China release the "China Action Plan for Early Warning to Promote Climate Change Adaptation (2025-2027)," emphasizing global risk assessment, early warning network establishment, and climate adaptation partnerships.

[para. 8] In China, urban areas are responsible for 80% of carbon emissions. Cities like Shenzhen have successfully reduced carbon emissions by 45% by building near-zero carbon communities and promoting low-carbon lifestyles, without compromising residents' quality of life. These initiatives aim to create replicable experiences that facilitate national carbon peak and reduction strategies.

[para. 9][para. 10] Constructing climate-resilient infrastructure is critical to ensuring societal safety amid more extreme weather events. Improving infrastructure climate resilience is not merely a cost but an investment in the future, providing significant economic and social returns. For example, sponge city initiatives using Nature-based Solutions can yield significant benefits in disaster prevention and water management, with every yuan invested potentially yielding 2 to 20 yuan in returns over the next 30 years.

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Who’s Who
World Resources Institute
The World Resources Institute (WRI) is a global research organization that uses new statistical modeling methods to study climate risks. It integrates data from nine global climate models to assess changes in climate risk indicators for nearly 1,000 cities worldwide under 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios. WRI has conducted climate resilience projects in cities like Shenzhen, focusing on carbon reduction and sustainable practices, yielding significant economic and social benefits.
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What Happened When
In the first three quarters of 2024:
Floods and geological disasters in China affected 50.382 million people, caused 703 deaths or disappearances, and resulted in economic losses of 235.94 billion yuan.
The summer of 2024:
China experienced its hottest period since records began in 1961.
End of October 2024:
Torrential rains from Storm Dana caused catastrophic flooding in Spain's Valencia region, resulting in 217 deaths.
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