How the ‘Fourth Generation’ of Housing Will Change the Property Market (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 王婧
By Wang Jing, Caixin Weekly
贴上“广州首席超新规四代宅”的标签，位于广州南沙区的招商林屿境项目火了。这一项目距离广州CBD珠江新城超过50公里，但从2024年12月中旬样板间开放之后，客流络绎不绝。蓄客仅两周后，项目于12月27日首推开盘“日光”，开发商在2025年春节后紧急加推。
Labeled as "Guangzhou's Chief Ultra-New Generation Residential," the Hillary Lin Yu Jing project in Guangzhou's Nansha district has gained considerable attention. Despite being over 50 kilometers away from Guangzhou's CBD Pearl River New Town, the project has attracted a steady stream of visitors since its showrooms opened in mid-December 2024. Just two weeks into customer engagement, the project had its first sales launch on December 27, selling out immediately, prompting the developer to promptly release additional units after the 2025 Lunar New Year.
据市场机构中指研究院披露，2025年1月，招商林屿境项目劲销1.4万平方米，登顶当月广州销冠，销售面积超出亚军近三成。
According to the China Index Academy, in January 2025, the China Merchants Lin Yu Jing project sold a robust 14,000 square meters, securing the top spot for sales in Guangzhou that month. This sales area exceeded that of the runner-up by nearly 30%.
“第四代住宅”（下称“四代宅”）在不少城市逆市热销。公开资料显示，在重庆，2024年初开盘的龙湖云河颂项目用时80天售罄；在西安，能建长誉府项目在9月15日开盘首日取得销售额近5亿元，打破该地区年度单盘纪录。此外，在浙江嘉兴、广东江门、湖北武汉等多地，多个四代宅项目均受到市场热捧。
The "fourth generation residential housing" (hereinafter referred to as "fourth-gen housing") has been selling well against market trends in many cities. According to public data, in Chongqing, the Longhu Yunhesong project sold out within 80 days after its launch at the beginning of 2024. In Xi'an, the Nengjian Changyufu project achieved nearly 500 million yuan in sales on its opening day, September 15, breaking the annual single-project sales record for the area. Additionally, several fourth-gen housing projects in places like Jiaxing, Zhejiang; Jiangmen, Guangdong; and Wuhan, Hubei, have also received enthusiastic market responses.
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- The Hillary Lin Yu Jing project in Guangzhou quickly sold out its initial units, leading to further releases, while fourth-generation housing projects are seeing strong sales in various Chinese cities, indicating wide market acceptance.
- Fourth-generation housing, introduced by Italian designers and developed in China by Tsinghua University, integrates green spaces into residential buildings but faces mixed industry reactions and policy adjustments.
- As fourth-generation housing spreads, concerns grow over its impact on traditional real estate markets and buyer demand dynamics, prompting tightening policies in cities like Guangzhou.
The Hillary Lin Yu Jing project in Guangzhou's Nansha district has gained attention as a leading fourth-generation housing development, despite being over 50 kilometers from the city center. The project, which features innovative designs like sky gardens, achieved significant sales success shortly after opening in December 2024, with units selling out rapidly and further expansions planned post-2025 Lunar New Year. According to the China Index Academy, the project sold 14,000 square meters in January 2025, making it the top-selling development in Guangzhou. This success reflects a broader trend in Chinese cities towards fourth-generation residential housing, which is designed as an "aerial forest garden building" and has been met with enthusiasm in locations like Chongqing, Xi'an, and Jiaxing. [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3][para. 4]
The concept, introduced in China by Tsinghua University, emphasizes shared habitats for humans, plants, and animals. The "Design Standards for Urban Forest Garden Residences" published in 2021 categorize these into three types - private, communal sky garden residences, and sky parking. Projects like Zhaoshang Linyu Jing offer features such as sky gardens furnished with outdoor amenities, which were traditionally seen only in luxury residences. Real estate firms are actively pursuing fourth-generation housing projects, with over 70 such developments already underway, and further projects primarily planned in Nanjing and Xi'an. [para. 4][para. 6][para. 7]
This trend has emerged amid changes in the real estate market, driven by the need to rejuvenate slowing sales and counteract economic pressures. These pressures include declining revenues from state-owned land sales, which has prompted local governments to incentivize new housing developments. Policies have gradually shifted to favor the promotion of fourth-generation housing, with relaxed restrictions on floor area ratios seen as key to enabling these innovative designs. Many cities have adopted policies supporting fourth-generation housing, including exemptions for sky garden spaces from floor area calculations. [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 15]
However, the rise of fourth-generation housing has sparked debates among real estate professionals. While some view it as essential for market revitalization and demand generation, others are concerned about a "siphon effect," where such developments draw demand away from second-hand properties, potentially destabilizing the market. In Guangzhou, recent policy changes have halted approvals for some fourth-generation housing projects, sparking objections from developers fearful of potential devaluation. [para. 11][para. 13][para. 16]
The high efficiency in space utilization of fourth-generation housing, characterized by sky gardens and other innovations, has led to higher floor area ratios exceeding traditional limits. This approach has been seen to boost the selling points of new developments. However, the "stealing space" practice—where additional non-living spaces are included as bonuses—has been critiqued for potentially deceiving buyers about the true usable area. [para. 12][para. 19][para. 20]
The Guangzhou market provides a relatable case study where the "siphon effect" is evident, with new fourth-generation projects outperforming older second-hand properties significantly. This trend resonates in other second-tier cities where fourth-generation housing is becoming prevalent, such as Fuzhou, demonstrating a potential market shift. However, as seen in cities like Chongqing, this effect may weaken over time with widened market penetration. [para. 22][para. 24]
In light of these dynamics, policy adjustments have emerged, with many cities allowing existing projects to adjust plans in line with new regulations, thus aiding in easing market transitions. As the Chinese real estate landscape grapples with these innovations, it reflects a complex balance between fostering new housing models and maintaining traditional market equilibrium. [para. 28][para. 30]
- Longfor Group
龙湖 - The article mentions that in Chongqing, the Longfor Group's Yunhesong project, which launched in early 2024, sold out within 80 days. This indicates the strong market appeal and success of these "fourth-generation residential" projects, which integrate features like vertical greenery and air gardens.
- CRIC
克而瑞 - CRIC, also referred to as China Real Estate Information Corporation, is a market research agency mentioned in the article. It recently published a report stating that the number of projects explicitly aiming to develop fourth-generation residential (四代宅) projects nationwide has exceeded 70. This type of housing is becoming the main supply in the market, with significant numbers reported in cities like Nanjing and Xi'an, having 16 and 14 projects, respectively.
- China Merchants Group
招商 - China Merchants Group is associated with the Guangzhou Lin Yu Jing project in Nansha District, which gained attention for its "fourth-generation residential" concept featuring air gardens and high utilization rates. This project topped Guangzhou sales in January 2025, selling 14,000 square meters. The company offers innovative housing solutions, providing designs with significant "gifted" areas to attract buyers, although such practices face regulatory scrutiny.
- Poly Group
保利 - The article mentions that in May 2024, the Poly Yanyu Tangyue project in Guangzhou's Haizhu District launched with a unit price of 61,000 yuan per square meter. It gained significant attention for its over 100% utilization rate, leading to a lottery draw for over 200 units. The project's launch topped Guangzhou's sales rankings for that period, and it attracted buyers due to its competitive utilization rate against nearby older properties.
- CITIC Trading
国贸 - The article mentions that CITIC Trading Research Institute disclosed that in January 2025, the Zhaoshang Linyujing project in Guangzhou's Nansha District sold 14,000 square meters, becoming the monthly sales champion, with its sales area surpassing the runner-up by nearly 30%.
- Beike
贝壳找房 - Beike (贝壳找房) is a real estate platform mentioned in the article that tracked second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou. It reported on the rapid decline in second-hand housing prices in areas near new high "得房率" (actual usable area rate) projects, illustrating the strong market impact of fourth-generation housing projects on existing real estate prices.
- Huachuang Securities
华创证券 - Huachuang Securities published a research report on October 18, 2024, noting that since 2021, Fujian Province has transacted 62 plots designated for fourth-generation residential projects, with a total floor area of approximately 6.02 million square meters. Fuzhou accounted for 37 of these plots, representing 60% of the total in the province.
- Before 2021：
- Sales of commercial housing in China rose steadily, and local governments introduced policies such as the '70/90 policy.'
- 2021：
- China Association for Engineering Construction Standardization issued 'Design Standards for Urban Forest Garden Residences,' categorizing fourth-generation dwellings.
- Second half of 2021：
- Real estate industry in China entered a downward trajectory, leading to a cooling of the land market.
- July 25, 2023：
- The Politburo pointed out significant changes in the real estate market's supply-demand relationship.
- November 2023：
- Guangzhou revised its 'Calculation Method of Floor Area Ratio for Planning Management,' expanding proportions for semi-open spaces.
- End of 2023：
- National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed efforts to build good housing.
- Mid-December 2024：
- Showrooms for the Hillary Lin Yu Jing project in Guangzhou opened to the public.
- December 27, 2024：
- Hillary Lin Yu Jing project had its first sales launch and sold out immediately.
- January 1, 2025：
- CRIC's Chongqing region released a report on fourth-generation homes, noting initial success and later challenges.
- January 2025：
- China Merchants Lin Yu Jing project sold 14,000 square meters, leading sales in Guangzhou.
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