Cover Story: Is China’s Commercial Space Sector Ready to Blast Off? (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】深度：中国商业航天进展如何？ “快速失败”能被容忍吗？

[para. 1] On January 23, a Long March 6 modified carrier rocket launched the fourth batch of Qianfan constellation satellites, bringing the Year of the Dragon's total to 72. Qianfan, managed by Yuanxin Satellite and backed by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, marks China's second large satellite internet project after the GW Constellation of China Satellite Network Group (China StarNet). In February 2024, Yuanxin astonished the industry by raising 6.7 billion yuan in a Series A funding round and achieved rapid satellite deployment, underscoring China's commercial spaceflight growth in 2024.

[para. 2] In 2024, China's commercial spaceflight faced a "small peaks" year, gaining attention after being included in a government work report highlighting new productivity forces. Billion-yuan investments and technological advancements such as reusable rockets, launch sites, and space tourism gained spotlight. However, an accident involving Tianbing Aerospace's "Tianlong-3" rocket emphasized safety and regulatory concerns.

[para. 3] The withdrawal of Changguang Satellite's IPO application after more than two years of pursuit highlighted commercial space's market challenges. The decision reflected continued investor uncertainty about returns in the commercial aerospace sector, posing questions about the role of policy in fostering innovation within a state-controlled space industry.

[para. 4] In November 2024, China's National Space Administration signaled support for integrating commercial space companies into national projects and expanding globally, aiming to spur innovation. However, commercial launches still grapple with limited site availability. The Long March 12, dedicated to general commercial platforms, faces high demand from companies eager to break into new markets.

[para. 5] SpaceX dominated 2024 with 134 orbital launches and 1,962 "Starlink" satellites, boasting a $350 billion valuation. Its integration of rockets, satellites, and applications presents a model for a closed-loop commercial space industry, showcasing advantages that Chinese companies aim to emulate.

[para. 6] The satellite internet landscape witnessed considerable momentum, with Yuanxin Satellite's Series A round setting an industry benchmark. Supported by a $50.1 billion China Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrade Fund, Yuanxin embarked on an ambitious satellite deployment campaign, striving to launch 648 satellites by 2025. The satellite initiative aligns with the Yangtze River Delta's "G60 Starlink" efforts unveiled during the 2021 China International Import Expo.

[para. 7] Furthermore, Yuanxin aimed for a rapid pace in satellite deployment, achieving 54 satellites in 2024, despite falling short of its 108 satellite target. Industry insiders described Yuanxin's delivery speed as "obviously accelerated," showcasing the effective pre-planning and preparation carried out in prior years.

[para. 8] In late 2024, China's satellite internet formally transitioned to batch networking with the launch of 10 satellites via a Long March 5B rocket, while questions about the practicality and cost-effectiveness of high-capacity rockets persisted. Industry experts anticipate further accelerated launches in the future.

[para. 9] Industry enthusiasm for reusable rockets surged in 2024. Companies like LandSpace and Deep Blue Aerospace prepared for inaugural reusable flights in 2025, aiming to reduce launch costs and increase efficiency akin to SpaceX's Falcon 9. However, payload capacities necessitate additional developments to support large-scale constellation deployments.

[para. 10] Deep Blue Aerospace aimed to reduce rocket transportation costs, exploring price quotes benchmarked against SpaceX's Falcon 9 to achieve competitive rates per kilogram in orbit. Successful launches could significantly impact market dynamics.

[para. 11] Space tourism gained momentum in 2024, with Chinese companies developing suborbital vehicles offering tourist flights. Though inspired by international pioneers, safety concerns remain paramount to the Chinese commercial space sector.

[para. 12] Changguang Satellite's decision to halt its STAR Market IPO underscored capital hurdles for promising commercial aerospace companies struggling to meet profitability expectations. Investors, faced with few avenues for returns, looked to primary market opportunities.

[para. 13] Li Guoping's 2024 policy speech on commercial space development contained encouraging signals for China's private space companies to increase international engagement and flexibility in industry regulations, although substantial challenges persist in improving market access and technology sharing.

[para. 14] Overall, regulatory changes addressing safety and space sustainability have gained importance following incidents such as the Tianbing Technology rocket accident. While challenges endure, industry leaders emphasize resilience and a willingness to adapt approaches for sustained growth.