Caixin Weekly | Policy Cooling Period Ends as Robotaxis Set for Public Testing (AI Translation)

财新周刊｜政策冷静期告一段落 robotaxi即将接受公众检验

The domestic policy framework in China is increasingly supporting the development of autonomous driving, especially Robotaxis, with local ordinances in Wuhan, Beijing, and Guangzhou set to take effect between March and April 2025. Companies in the autonomous driving sector are particularly optimistic as they anticipate these legislative measures will clear the path to wider commercialization, ending the "policy cooling-off period" that lasted for nearly half a year. [para. 1]

The attention given to autonomous driving is on the rise again, with commercial trials and regulatory policies becoming focal points as the industry anticipates a shift in the market. For instance, Baidu's Apollo Go embraced extensive public scrutiny in Wuhan as the first near-citywide driverless ride-hailing service, sparking debates on the socio-economic impacts of autonomous driving on traditional drivers. [para. 2]

However, following public debate surrounding Baidu’s endeavor in Wuhan, policy initiatives in cities like Beijing and Guangzhou slowed down, instilling industry-wide anxiety and hesitation. This period of uncertainty also impacted autonomous shuttle route plans in major cities, delaying intended progress. [para. 3]

The Robotaxi industry has undergone several consolidations, with only a handful of companies remaining committed to fully autonomous systems. These entities recognize the importance of improving cost-effectiveness through competitive pricing and seeking positive gross profit per vehicle. A prominent example is Pony.ai’s objective to profit on a per-vehicle basis by 2025. [para. 3]

Consumer acceptance is increasingly leaning towards autonomous driving, with a significant market potential forecasted. This is supported by stats revealing only 11% of Chinese consumers are unwilling to try autonomous vehicles, indicating a promising landscape for firms like Baidu and Pony.ai seeking to boost their fleets in the coming years. [para. 4]

This momentum comes as domestic L2 and above driving systems achieve roughly a 49% penetration rate in the Chinese market. The focus is on transitioning from focusing solely on technology development towards scaling operations commercially, which presents new challenges in network expansion, fleet maintenance, and market education. [para. 5]

Policy dependency is pivotal, as urban integration, aided by vehicle-to-road and vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems, could exponentially enhance traffic efficiency. However, this means both technological advancements and systemic developments must evolve concurrently within regulatory frameworks. [para. 6]

China's structured top-down policy system contrasts the U.S.'s fragmented approach, echoing a need for coherent regulatory development to propel autonomous driving forward globally. Notably, U.S. proposals to allow the sale of vehicles lacking traditional controls underscore this trend, potentially catalyzing advancements in autonomous vehicle deployment. [para. 7]

Multiple technological routes in autonomous driving, especially concerning level 4 autonomy versus a gradual increment, are being pursued and are indicative of industry maturity. Moreover, government policies actively facilitate these divergences, considering strategic industry demands and ensuring supportive environments for diverse technical advancements. [para. 8]

Challenges remain regarding policy and market synchronization, with companies like General Motors reevaluating participation due to high entry and operational costs in the Robotaxi market. As hardware costs decline, primarily through economies of scale and technological advances like cheaper lidar, scaling out remains crucial for financial viability in the Robotaxi sector. [para. 9]

Strategic partnerships are vital, as the "golden triangle" model of collaboration between tech firms, automakers, and ride-hailing platforms emerges. Chinese companies like Pony.ai are exploring diversified service channels, while maintaining focus on mainstreaming Robotaxi services. [para. 10]

Overall, both L4 and L2+ sectors are striving for market share, yet face distinct challenges based on technological, policy, and economic dynamics. The inevitable consumer-driven focus continues to dictate development trajectories with ongoing competition and collaboration. [para. 11]