Caixin Weekly | Solid-State Batteries Reshaping Industry Landscape, Artificial Intelligence Accelerates R&D and Mass Production (AI Translation)

财新周刊｜固态电池重构行业格局 人工智能加速研发量产

China's advancements in the development of solid-state batteries are nearing the global forefront, with predictions by experts and companies that small-scale production will occur by 2027, aligning with major firms like Japan's Toyota. The field sees China's progress over the past year as comparable to five years in other nations, as noted during a recent summit [para. 1]. Traditional liquid batteries, while mature, face challenges due to safety concerns and limited lifespan, spurring interest in solid-state batteries which promise higher safety and energy density [para. 2][para. 3]. Chinese battery companies currently dominate the market, with the potential for solid-state batteries to usher in new competition [para. 3][para. 4].

Though Japan first commercialized lithium-ion liquid batteries, the market leadership transitioned to South Korea and China. Now, Japan aims to regain its edge through the mass production of solid-state batteries, leveraging its complete supply chain, alongside South Korea and U.S. startups aiming to reshape the market [para. 5]. In China, a research fund of 6 billion yuan has been earmarked for solid-state batteries, recognizing the strategic importance of domestic production [para. 6]. However, this advancement faces hurdles as solid-state electrolytes require high precision manufacture, with main materials like sulfides posing safety challenges and high production costs [para. 7]. Japanese firms have a lead in sulfide electrolytes thanks to established patents, but other types like oxides and polymers present their own production challenges [para. 8][para. 9].

Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University anticipates breakthroughs in first-generation solid-state batteries with mass production viable by 2027, and technologies evolving to double energy densities by 2030 [para. 10]. Despite the challenges, automakers such as Mercedes-Benz are actively pursuing solid-state batteries, having entered road testing with prototypes promising significant performance improvements [para. 11][para. 13]. Meanwhile, newcomers aim for entry into the industry by using solid-state battery innovations to challenge existing leaders [para. 13][para. 14].

Solid-state batteries also offer the potential to address new energy vehicles' profitability challenges. AI is poised to dramatically reduce battery development cycles, driving advancements in this area [para. 17][para. 18]. AI's integration into research transforms material development, as seen in cases like CATL's investments and developments using AI for accelerated research [para. 19][para. 20]. The synergy between AI and solid-state battery technology holds promise for reshaping material design and discovery [para. 21].

The global battery market is evolving, with China holding a strong position due to its integrated industry base and extensive market experience. Chinese companies are likely to maintain an edge even as foreign firms advance their own capabilities [para. 5][para. 14][para. 22]. Although start-ups hope to break in, competing with established giants like CATL is challenging due to the latter's technological and resource advantages [para. 23].

Industry perspectives suggest that solid-state and liquid batteries will coexist rather than eliminate one another, with each finding niches based on their intrinsic advantages [para. 25]. The trajectory towards solid-state battery mass production represents both continuity and innovation within the battery sector, emphasizing a new era marked by diversified battery development [para. 25].