In-Depth: The Profound Restructuring of Global Supply Chains (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】深度：全球供应链深度重构 中企出海节奏悄然变化

In recent years, Chinese firms have intensified their overseas investments, demonstrating increased capacity for international expansion, with a noticeable shift towards a decentralized global supply chain model [para. 1]. In 2024, China’s non-financial direct outbound investment grew by 10.5% to $143.85 billion, while new overseas contract revenues increased 3.1% to $165.97 billion. Contract signings reached a record $267.3 billion, and labor exports surged by 17.9% to 409,000 people [para. 2].

China’s investments have predominantly grown in ASEAN regions, up 13%, particularly in Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand; Belt and Road Initiative countries saw a $33.7 billion investment, a 5% rise. Key investment focuses include advanced manufacturing, new energy vehicles, and infrastructure [para. 3]. China's export shift from products to capacity, involving intermediate goods like raw materials and components, is notable. China has been the largest exporter of intermediate goods since 2011, contributing to 60% of its trade growth [para. 4].

By 2024, China’s mechanical and electrical exports hit $2.13 trillion, marking a 7.5% increase year-over-year [para. 5]. Geopolitical events, such as COVID-19 and U.S.-China trade tensions, have catalyzed structural adjustments in global supply chains, birthing the “China+1” strategy to mitigate dependency risks. Chinese firms are extending production capacities overseas, notably to ASEAN countries and Mexico [para. 6][para. 7].

Trade in intermediate goods with emerging markets soared, with machinery and electronic goods exports to Vietnam and India growing by 30.8% and 14.3%, respectively. Yet, expansion in North Africa and the Middle East remains nascent, despite strategic investments in response to geopolitical challenges [para. 8]. American tariffs, part of the broader conflict under President Trump, have complicated the trade environment. New tariffs of 20% have exacerbated pressures on China’s trade stability [para. 9][para. 10].

The diversification of overseas production facilities is becoming imperative to manage trade risks with the U.S., underlined by issues of product traceability and tariffs that could drive some production back to China [para. 11]. Southeast Asia, currently a major investment region, faces challenges due to incomplete infrastructure and less developed industrial systems. Yet, nations like Vietnam and Indonesia offer favorable conditions, including labor and resources, propelling multinational companies to establish production bases there [para. 12][para. 13].

Chinese enterprises exporting intermediate goods symbolize their broader manufacturing sector's overseas expansion. The resumption of labor export has further emphasized growth in overseas infrastructure projects [para. 14]. Despite challenges, the adaptability and resilience of the Chinese supply chain remain core advantages amidst complex global dynamics [para. 15]. The propensity of Chinese firms to “go global” continues to be tested by unpredictable policy shifts abroad, alongside rising comprehensive operating costs in foreign markets [para. 16].

Over the years, China's manufacturing relocation trend has accelerated, especially under tariff pressures from the U.S. While Vietnam and Mexico have become key investment destinations, seeing significant export growth of intermediate goods, the U.S. remains a substantial market, despite experiencing reduced imports from China due to ongoing trade tensions [para. 17][para. 18][para. 19]. The tariff war has reshaped Chinese overseas investment strategies, steering firms to pursue asset-light models and flexible operational strategies in regions like Southeast Asia [para. 20]. Policymakers in these destinations seek a balance: capital attraction from China alongside protecting domestic industries [para. 21]. As global trade policies remain in flux, firms are urged to remain adaptable, navigating unpredictability through strategic, calculated moves on the international stage [para. 22].