Economy Welcomes a Strong Start (AI Translation)
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专栏作家 钟正生
Columnist Zhong Zhengsheng
2025年3月17日，国家统计局公布2025年1-2月中国经济增长数据。
On March 17, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on China's economic growth for January to February 2025.
主要指标保持较快增长
Key Indicators Maintain Rapid Growth
2025年1-2月，主要经济增长数据保持较快增长。我们估算，2025年1-2月中国月度GDP增速达到5.2%，虽较2024年12月回落0.5个百分点，但持平于2024年10-11月，且高于全年“5%左右”的GDP增速目标。在生产端，1-2月服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，较2024年12月回落0.9个百分点；工业增加值同比增长5.9%，处于2024年5月以来的次高点（仅较2024年12月低0.3个百分点）。在需求端，社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资增速分别为4.0%和4.1%，分别较2024年12月提升0.3和1.9个百分点，出口交货值增速回落2.6个百分点至6.2%。
In January and February of 2025, primary economic growth indicators sustained a rapid pace. We estimate that China's monthly GDP growth rate for January and February 2025 reached 5.2%. This marks a 0.5 percentage point decline from December 2024 but remains consistent with October-November 2024 levels and surpasses the annual GDP growth target of "around 5%." On the production side, the service industry production index rose 5.6% year-over-year for January and February, a 0.9 percentage point decrease from December 2024. Meanwhile, industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-over-year, marking the second-highest level since May 2024, just 0.3 percentage points lower than December 2024. On the demand side, the growth rates for total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment were 4.0% and 4.1%, respectively, representing increases of 0.3 and 1.9 percentage points from December 2024. However, the growth rate of export delivery value fell by 2.6 percentage points to 6.2%.
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- In early 2025, China's economy showed a 5.2% GDP growth rate, consistent with late 2024 and surpassing the annual target. Industrial production and services grew rapidly, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9%.
- Fixed asset investment saw a 4.1% rise, bolstered by infrastructure and manufacturing growth, though private investment remained stable year-on-year. Real estate investment decline narrowed, with significant progress in reducing inventory.
- Consumer goods consumption grew by 4%, aided by steady retail and dining sales. The services sector's growth slightly slowed, and urban unemployment rose to 5.4% in February.
In early 2025, China's economy showed resilience with steady indicators, despite marginal decreases from the previous months. In January and February 2025, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.2% year-over-year, slightly below December 2024 but consistent with the earlier months, exceeding the annual target of around 5%.[para. 1] The service industry production index rose by 5.6%, and industrial added value increased by 5.9%, both marking strong positions compared to the previous months.[para. 1]
Notably, China's industrial production experienced rapid growth, led by the mining and equipment manufacturing sectors. The industrial added value in the mining sector grew by 4.3%, while the manufacturing sector rose by 6.9% year-on-year.[para. 2][para. 3] However, the production-to-sales ratio dipped slightly, suggesting potential inventory accumulation due to demand lagging behind production.[para. 3]
Fixed asset investment saw robust growth, improving by 1.9 percentage points from December 2024 to reach 4.1% by February 2025.[para. 4] Excluding real estate development, the investment grew by 8.4%. The acceleration was driven by infrastructure and manufacturing investment, particularly in equipment and high-tech services.[para. 5]
Investment in social and high-tech services sectors increased, with information services and e-commerce witnessing growth rates of 66.4% and 31.9%, respectively. These areas are expected to contribute significantly to growth due to China's advancements in AI, robotics, quantum communication, and semiconductors.[para. 6][para. 7]
Real estate investment showed signs of stabilization, as the decline narrowed to 9.8% in early 2025—a 3.7 percentage point improvement from December 2024. The effort to "de-stock" was evident with a reduction in the area of commercial residential properties available for sale and an improvement in sales volume and funding for real estate companies.[para. 8][para. 9]
Consumer goods consumption showed steady improvement, with retail sales rising by 4.0% year-over-year. While goods consumption remained robust, dining revenue displayed a marginal increase. Specific product categories experienced varied growth driven by policy measures, notably in communication equipment and cultural-office supplies.[para. 10]
The services sector experienced deceleration, with a production index growth rate slowing to 5.6% year-over-year. While some sub-sectors such as information technology experienced a slight acceleration, others like rental services and financial services faced declines.[para. 11]
The employment scenario posed challenges as the urban surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, the highest since March 2023. The unemployment rate was notably higher among migrant workers.[para. 12][para. 13] This rise in unemployment was coupled with reduced average working hours, suggesting underemployment concerns but also reflecting policies to protect workers' rights.[para. 13]
These economic trends from January to February 2025 highlight a mixed outlook across different sectors. While industrial production and investment in key areas like high-tech services led to robust GDP growth, challenges remain in maintaining sustained demand, rebalancing inventories, and addressing employment issues. The varying performances across sectors illustrate the ongoing need for targeted policy support and structural adjustments to maintain economic momentum.[para. 1][para. 3][para. 4][para. 8][para. 10][para. 12]
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