[Weekly Early Access] Myanmar Faces the Dual Disasters of Earthquake and Civil War—What Role Can China Play? (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】缅甸面临地震与内战双重灾难 中国能做什么？

On March 28, 2024, a devastating magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck central Myanmar, with the epicenter located near Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city and a major hub for Chinese jade traders. The shallow-focus quake, at a depth of only 30 km, was the world’s most powerful earthquake so far in 2024. The catastrophe killed at least 3,085 people, injured 4,715, and left 341 missing as of April 3. Mandalay, home to a large Chinese community estimated at 70,000 in the city (potentially 400,000 in the province), and a historic center for the jade trade, suffered widespread destruction. The severity of the quake, aftershocks, and subsequent collapse of many multistory residential and commercial buildings, particularly those inhabited by Chinese traders, led to significant casualties within this group. Major aftershocks, over 63 in total, further endangered rescue operations and contributed to the destruction [para. 1][para. 4][para. 5][para. 6][para. 8].

Mandalay’s vulnerability to earthquakes is due to its location on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar's most active seismic zone. The fault, approximately 1,200 km long, marks the convergent boundary between the Indian and Sunda plates and regularly produces powerful earthquakes. The 2024 quake’s rupture length was estimated at 300-600 km, making it one of the largest such slips recorded on land, with an energy accumulation over nearly 200 years since the region’s last major quake in 1839. Chinese seismologists assessed the maximum shaking at the epicenter as intensity X (out of XII), indicating most buildings in the area suffered heavy or total destruction, vastly exceeding local building standards and resulting in a catastrophic impact [para. 9][para. 10][para. 11].

The earthquake caused severe infrastructural damage: at least 1,591 houses, 670 temples, 60 schools, 3 bridges, and 290 pagodas collapsed or suffered major damage. Notably, iconic structures such as the Ava Bridge and Mandalay Palace walls collapsed. The city’s international airport control tower also fell, killing at least six people. The earthquake directly disrupted transport, communications, medical response, and basic supply chains, making rescue and relief operations exceptionally challenging [para. 12][para. 13].

Immediate post-quake rescue efforts in Myanmar were hampered by shortages of equipment, unprepared government response, and damage to communications and infrastructure. Most early rescues were conducted by local communities or volunteer Chinese businesspeople. Many survivors were trapped for hours or days under rubble in scorching heat, greatly reducing survival odds. International assistance—particularly from China—played a crucial role, with over 600 Chinese rescuers, including both government and civil teams, arriving quickly with limited heavy equipment. These teams worked under difficult conditions, performing search, rescue, and later disinfection in the wreckage, managing to extricate a small number of survivors [para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 18].

The earthquake's impact on Mandalay’s jade trading community—a key economic driver and symbol of China-Myanmar commerce—was especially acute. Central trading hotels like Win Star and Sky Villa, populated by Chinese jade merchants and live-stream sellers, collapsed, causing dozens of deaths and injuries. Survivors described scenes of chaos, with buildings split in half and rescue impeded by further aftershocks, burned-out structures, and organizational chaos [para. 7][para. 17].

Amid aftershocks, the prospect for finding additional survivors diminished rapidly over 128 hours after the primary quake, shifting the focus from rescue to epidemic prevention and the disposal of remains. The United Nations and World Health Organization called for substantial emergency funding and logistical support as local hospitals became overwhelmed, faces shortages of medical supplies, and lacked electricity or water supplies [para. 19][para. 20][para. 21].

For Mandalay’s population, especially the resident Chinese business community, the disaster’s psychological and economic scars are expected to last. Many, seeing the extent of the devastation and the slow return of business activity—particularly in the devastated jade market—expressed reluctance or inability to return to Myanmar soon [para. 22][para. 23].