China’s Export Machine Grinds to Halt Under Trump Tariffs (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 罗国平 覃敏 包云红 孙嫣然 赵煊 冯奕铭 包志明 屈运栩
By Caixin Weekly's Luo Guoping, Qin Min, Bao Yunhong, Sun Yanran, Zhao Xuan, Feng Yiming, Bao Zhiming, Qu Yunxu
4月8日还在热火朝天装货抢运出海的上海港，到10日集装箱开始滞留不出。关税税率的不断离谱跳涨已让市场“木然”——利润、竞争等一切商业交易的逻辑都在被摧毁。
On April 8, the Port of Shanghai was bustling with activity, loading goods for shipment overseas. By April 10, containers began to pile up, stuck at the port. The incessant and unreasonable surges in tariff rates have left the market "stunned," with the principles of profit, competition, and the logic of all commercial transactions being obliterated.
短短一周，美国对华加征关税完成了“三级跳”——从4月2日宣布“对等关税”，对自中国进口商品累计加征54%关税；到4月8日针对中国反制，再加50%额外关税累计至104%；但到北京时间4月10日凌晨1时，“对等关税”生效后仅第13个小时，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体宣布暂缓对三分之一贸易伙伴实施高关税，但把对中国的“对等关税”进一步提高至125%。美东时间4月10日，美国白宫宣称对华关税实际累计达到145%，因为还要包括早前以打击芬太尼为由向中国加征的20%额外关税。
In the span of just one week, the United States executed a "triple jump" in imposing tariffs on China. On April 2, it announced "reciprocal tariffs," cumulatively imposing a 54% tariff on Chinese imports. By April 8, in response to China's countermeasures, an additional 50% tariff was added, raising the cumulative rate to 104%. However, by 1 a.m. Beijing time on April 10—merely 13 hours after the "reciprocal tariffs" took effect—President Donald Trump announced on social media a temporary halt in applying high tariffs on one-third of U.S. trade partners but further increased the "reciprocal tariffs" on China to 125%. By April 10 Eastern Time, the White House indicated that the cumulative tariffs on Chinese goods had effectively reached 145% due to an earlier 20% tariff hike imposed as a measure to combat fentanyl-related imports from China.
在上海港洋山港区和外高桥港区靠泊的集装箱船，近半目的地是去往美国，4月7日、8日，还有诸多船只“快马加鞭”从美国赶来，希望在关税落地前装货出港。但当关税大棒抡到104%时，未能出运的集装箱就开始选择滞留码头堆场，等待货主将货物拉回或其他处置。
Nearly half of the container ships docked at Shanghai Port's Yangshan and Waigaoqiao terminals are bound for the United States. On April 7 and 8, numerous vessels hurriedly arrived from the U.S., aiming to load goods and depart before tariffs took effect. However, when tariffs soared to an overwhelming 104%, containers that failed to ship out began to remain at terminal yards, awaiting cargo owners to retrieve or otherwise handle their goods.
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- U.S.-China trade tensions saw escalating tariffs, with cumulative tariffs on Chinese imports reaching 145% by April 10, causing significant disruptions in global trade and shipping.
- High tariffs destabilized supply chains, raising costs for raw materials like metals, LNG, and manufacturing, while reducing global trade volumes and affecting industries like electronics, agriculture, and renewable energy.
- Chinese companies and global businesses faced challenges adapting, resorting to new markets, cross-border e-commerce, localized production, and policy adjustments to mitigate impacts.
The article discusses the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China, marked by a series of tit-for-tat tariff hikes that are severely disrupting global supply chains, trade flows, and economic stability. Starting in early April, the U.S. rapidly increased tariffs on Chinese goods, reaching a cumulative rate of 145% on April 10. China retaliated with similar measures, raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%. These unprecedented moves have upended trade dynamics, causing chaos in shipping logistics, plummeting freight rates on China-U.S. routes, and leaving container yards in Shanghai stacked with unsent goods [para. 1][para. 3][para. 5].
Shipping companies have responded by drastically reducing capacity for U.S.-China routes, yet oversupply and reduced shipment volumes have led to an 18% drop in freight rates to the U.S. West Coast on April 11. Other trade routes, such as China-Europe and within Asia, have experienced upward trends in freight rates, reflecting a broader reshuffling of global trade flows [para. 6][para. 8]. Industry experts believe these tariffs are tantamount to resetting U.S.-China bilateral trade, with repercussions for global trade volumes and economic growth. The World Bank reported that global trade growth slowed to 0.8% in early 2025, comparable to levels during the 2008 financial crisis [para. 11].
The tariffs are sending shockwaves through various industries and markets. Prices for raw materials like crude oil and metals have sharply fluctuated. For instance, U.S. WTI crude oil futures hit a four-year low of $55 per barrel on April 9, while copper prices have exhibited extreme volatility. China's Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S.'s tariff measures as economically futile, warning of long-term consequences for global economic stability [para. 14][para. 16].
Industrial sectors such as electronics, automobiles, and consumer goods are significantly affected. Chinese manufacturers face rising production costs, squeezed profit margins, and uncertainty about tariff exemptions. For example, the U.S. tariffs have driven up the cost of lithium batteries and solar modules imported into the U.S. by 20% to 25% and 10% to 12%, respectively. The renewable energy sector has been particularly impacted, with the U.S. now the most expensive market for solar development [para. 18][para. 21].
China has introduced measures to counter these tariffs, including export restrictions on key materials like medium and heavy rare earths, crucial for aerospace and defense industries. With 80% of global medium and heavy rare earth resources, China's actions have caused supply chain disruptions and price volatility. These measures underscore China's critical role in global resource supply and its capability to influence global trade dynamics [para. 24][para. 28].
Amid this turmoil, companies are adopting strategies such as shifting trade routes, restructuring supply chains, and exiting U.S. markets. Large Chinese firms are exploring markets in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America. Meanwhile, smaller enterprises are leveraging cross-border e-commerce platforms to identify new opportunities. However, high tariffs, shifting trade policies, and rising costs have made navigating global trade increasingly complex for businesses [para. 30][para. 35][para. 37].
Multinational corporations such as Apple, Toyota, and Tesla are also feeling the impact. Many companies now face challenges from rising production costs, disrupted supply chains, and declining profits. For instance, Apple’s iPhone prices in North America may rise by 24%, and shipment volumes could decline significantly. Similarly, Japanese automakers face steep tariffs, threatening their U.S. market share [para. 41][para. 44].
In response to these challenges, Chinese companies are emphasizing local production and intellectual property innovation to enhance global competitiveness. The broader trend of regionalizing supply chains—termed “layered trade”—is emerging, with nations focusing on self-reliant production capacities. Businesses worldwide continue to adapt to this uncertain era of high trade barriers, signaling a prolonged and profound reshaping of global supply chains [para. 49][para. 52][para. 57].
- Shantou Feiying Technology Co., Ltd.
汕头市飞鹰科技有限公司 - Shantou Feiying Technology Co., Ltd. transitioned from producing low value-added toys to outdoor products. Facing high U.S. tariffs, the company chose not to absorb the added costs. Its U.S. clients typically enjoy high profits, selling exports at considerable markups. Despite tariff hikes, the company's products remain profitable for U.S. buyers, maintaining trade viability.
- Goldman Sachs
高盛 - Goldman Sachs, in its April 9 report, significantly reduced its 2025 copper demand annual growth rate forecast to 1.3%, marking a 1.9 percentage point decrease compared to their February report. This adjustment reflects the growing concerns about global trade volume reduction and economic slowdown triggered by U.S.-China tariff escalations.
- Argus Media
阿格斯 - Argus Media is an international energy and commodity price reporting agency. It evaluates market prices for energy and raw materials like LNG and other commodities. In the context of the article, Argus highlighted the impact of tariffs on LNG trade, stating that U.S.-origin LNG exports to China have been heavily affected by tariffs, leading to shifts in trade flows toward Europe. Argus also noted LNG price declines but indicated limited market interest in purchasing spot LNG due to uncertainty.
- Sinochem Energy
中化能源 - Sinochem Energy's senior economist, Wang Haibin, noted that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) lost its cost advantage due to tariffs. Including domestic gas prices, processing, and transport costs, U.S. LNG could remain competitive in Asia at $9/MMBtu, but tariffs nullify this advantage. Sinochem is affected by the shift in global energy trade resulting from tariffs, highlighting challenges for U.S. oil and gas exports, including increased project costs and investment uncertainty.
- Wood Mackenzie
伍德麦肯兹 - Wood Mackenzie is an energy and commodities consultancy. The article mentions its analysis, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariffs on LNG (liquefied natural gas) projects, estimating a 3-5% cost increase due to tariffs on steel and aluminum. Additionally, their Vice President, Massimo Di Odoardo, noted potential shifts in LNG trade patterns, with countries like Japan and Europe considering increased U.S. LNG imports to balance trade. Wood Mackenzie emphasizes that high costs and risks could deter long-term procurement agreements.
- Roland Berger
罗兰贝格 - Roland Berger is described as a global management consulting firm, with Asia-Pacific industrial platform leader Xu Jigang noting that future global trade may form multiple "supply chain clusters." These clusters involve trade protection and localized supply systems, reflecting a shift in global manufacturing dynamics.
- GCL Technology
协鑫科技 - GCL Technology, a photovoltaic silicon manufacturer, is cautiously observing the U.S. tariff changes and their impacts on global markets. Chairman Zhu Gongshan revealed plans to pause its Middle East projects while reassessing investments. In 2024, GCL announced a potential FBR granular silicon project in the UAE. Amid heightened U.S. tariffs, the company prioritizes responsible investment, avoiding large-scale commitments in uncertain conditions, and exploring smaller U.S. projects to mitigate financial risks.
- Bangladesh New Age Garments Ltd.
孟加拉新时代制衣有限公司 - Bangladesh New Age Garments Ltd., led by President Zhang Wensheng, relies on Chinese-imported raw materials for apparel production and exports primarily to Europe and the U.S. It is facing a 37% U.S. tariff on its products, impacting the country's 80% export-dependent garment sector. While the company shifts orders to Europe within a 90-day exemption period, there are concerns that products using Chinese materials may face high tariffs if classified as originating from China.
- Photonics Corp
美国光子公司 - Photonics Corp., an American company, was listed in China's export control measures announced on April 9, 2025. This includes being added to the export control managed list alongside 12 other U.S. entities as part of China's countermeasures during the trade conflict. The restrictions aim to regulate the export of critical items, including those involving rare earth materials, impacting companies deemed significant to U.S. military or technology sectors. These measures reflect broader tensions in global trade and technology competition.
- Shield AI
护盾人工智能公司 - The article mentions that Shield AI, a U.S.-based company, was added to China's export control list. This aligns with China's response to escalating trade tensions, targeting entities involved in military or restricted sectors. Shield AI specializes in autonomous defense technologies, including AI-powered drones and systems for military applications.
- Sierra Nevada Corporation
内华达山脉公司 - Sierra Nevada Corporation was listed among six U.S. entities added to China's "Unreliable Entity List" due to its involvement in arms sales to Taiwan. This measure was part of China's export control actions announced on April 9, 2025, in response to escalating trade tensions and U.S. sanctions.
- Guosen Securities
国信证券 - Guosen Securities reported that in 2024, China imported $124 billion worth of aviation equipment, with half sourced from the U.S., particularly Boeing planes. The significant U.S. tariff increases could benefit Airbus (France) and China's domestic aircraft production, creating opportunities for these manufacturers amidst shifting trade dynamics caused by elevated tariffs.
- Dongxing Securities
东兴证券 - The article mentions that Dongxing Securities has reported China's imports of integrated circuit products amounting to approximately $118 billion and semiconductor manufacturing equipment and components around $45 billion. China's "reciprocal tariffs" policy has increased costs and impacted supply chains, prompting Chinese companies to accelerate domestic substitution efforts or seek alternative suppliers from Japan, South Korea, and Europe.
- Guosheng Securities
国盛证券 - The article mentions Guosheng Securities, noting that based on its report, China's aviation and aerospace equipment imports, with 58% and 52% respectively coming from the U.S., would benefit France (Airbus) and domestic aircraft sectors due to high tariffs on American goods, creating opportunities for domestic substitution and international competition.
- Galaxy Securities
银河证券 - The article mentions Galaxy Securities in the context of China's aircraft imports. It states that in 2024, China imported $124 billion worth of aircraft, with half sourced from the U.S., primarily Boeing. Significant tariff increases are expected to benefit competitors like Airbus and China's domestic aviation industry.
- Asian Metal
亚洲金属网 - Asian Metal is referenced in the article for reporting that the China FOB price for terbium metal rose by 4.77% within the past month. This highlights the impact of China's export restrictions on rare earth elements, including middle and heavy rare earths like terbium, on global supply chains and pricing dynamics.
- Tesla
特斯拉 - The article briefly mentions Tesla as one of the high-profile multinational companies affected by the U.S.-China trade war. Tesla faces pressures from rising costs due to increased tariffs on global trade flows, particularly in automotive markets. No further specific details regarding Tesla's operations or countermeasures are provided in the article.
- Toyota
丰田 - According to the article, Toyota, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, may face significant impacts from increased tariffs. As Japan's automotive industry contributes 8% to its GDP and 40% to industrial output, Toyota and other Japanese carmakers could adjust U.S. factory production to offset rising tariffs. However, the increased raw materials costs might reduce profits.
- Honda
本田 - The article mentions Honda in the context of Japan's automotive industry facing challenges from increased U.S. tariffs. Honda, along with other Japanese carmakers like Nissan, may adjust production at U.S. factories to cope with rising tariffs. However, increased raw material costs are expected to reduce profitability. The U.S. remains a critical market for Japan's automotive industry, which contributes significantly to its GDP and industrial output.
- Apple
苹果 - The article states that Apple's iPhone production is primarily in China, Vietnam, and India, with 30% of revenue from the U.S. market. U.S. tariffs could raise iPhone prices by 24% in North America, impacting demand. Apple faces rising costs due to tariffs, and its supply chain diversification and market adjustments are necessary to manage challenges effectively.
- Samsung
三星 - Samsung faces cost increases due to U.S. tariffs. About 35% of its smartphone revenue comes from the U.S., with production mainly in Vietnam and South Korea. Tariffs will challenge its supply chain, potentially raising prices and impacting market demand.
- Lenovo
联想 - The article states that Lenovo, as the world's largest PC manufacturer, faces challenges from U.S. tariffs despite its global layout. Nearly 70-80% of PCs sold in the U.S. are assembled in China, and its production capacity in Mexico is insufficient to meet demand. Expanding or relocating production lines would require time, while U.S. tariffs are expected to suppress market demand for PCs and servers. Thus, Lenovo continues to navigate these obstacles in the current trade environment.
- HP
惠普 - The article mentions that HP, along with other PC and server companies, faces challenges due to increased tariffs. Most PCs sold in the U.S. are assembled in China, Vietnam, and India, with China accounting for 70-80% of production. Tariffs will impact production costs and market demand, and while global players like HP have diverse supply chains, expansion or relocation of production facilities will take time.
- Dell
戴尔 - The article mentions that Dell, like other PC and server manufacturers, is significantly impacted by U.S. tariffs. Most PCs sold in the U.S. are assembled in China, Vietnam, and other countries, with China accounting for about 70-80% of the production capacity. Dell's operations, similar to other manufacturers, face challenges from increased costs due to tariffs and the potential need for time-consuming adjustments like production line shifts or expansions to meet U.S. market demands.
- Haier
海尔 - Haier, a leading Chinese home appliance brand, relies heavily on the North American market, generating nearly 80 billion RMB in revenue in 2024. While over 60% of its products are locally manufactured in the U.S. and around 20% in Mexico, about 10% are imported from China, now impacted by tariffs. Haier plans cost adjustments to mitigate tariff effects and uses its diverse global footprint to maintain market presence despite challenges.
- Hisense
海信 - Hisense sold 6.5 million TVs in the U.S. in 2024, with a production capacity of 8–10 million units annually at its factory in Mexico, sufficient to meet North American demand. North America is Hisense's largest overseas market. The company has adjusted its operations to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, ensuring cost control measures. While pursuing global expansion, Hisense embraces flexible strategies to manage tariff challenges effectively.
- TCL Technology
TCL - The article mentions TCL Technology as one of the Chinese companies with production capacity in the U.S. or Mexico to mitigate the impact of high tariffs. It highlights TCL's preparation for the shifting trade policies and its potential reliance on regional manufacturing to serve markets like North America more effectively.
- Hisense Visual Technology
海信视像 - Hisense Visual Technology sold 6.5 million TVs in the U.S. in 2024, with an annual production capacity of 8-10 million units at its Mexico factory, sufficient to meet North American demand. The company has a strong presence in the U.S. market, leveraging local production and Mexico imports.
- GE
通用电气 - In 2016, Chinese home appliance brand Haier acquired General Electric's (GE) appliance business for $5.4 billion, further expanding its presence in the U.S. market. By 2024, North America became Haier's largest overseas market, generating nearly 80 billion yuan in revenue. The acquisition allowed Haier to leverage GE's local production and distribution capabilities, with over 60% of its products sold in North America being manufactured locally, reducing the impact of tariffs and supply chain disruptions.
- Rongdian Group
荣电集团 - Rongdian Group, under Hefei's state-owned Rongdian Group, manages the appliance brand Rongshida. Since 2019, it has expanded overseas by starting with OEM production for the U.S.'s third-largest channel merchant. Facing high U.S. tariffs, Rongdian pursues diversified markets like Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia, and plans investments in Cambodia and Indonesia, with adjusted strategies due to tariff impacts. Cross-border e-commerce also plays a key role in expanding its global footprint.
- Royalstar
荣事达 - Royalstar, a Chinese home appliance brand under Hefei State-owned Rongdian Group, started with U.S. third-largest channel provider's OEM business in 2019. Its overseas revenue now reaches billions of yuan. Facing high costs and policy uncertainty, it abandoned U.S. factory plans and shifted focus to re-export hubs like Thailand and Nigeria. Royalstar adjusts its global operations, considers scaling down planned investments in countries like Cambodia due to escalating U.S. tariffs, and seeks opportunities via cross-border e-commerce.
- AliExpress
阿里速卖通 - AliExpress, a cross-border e-commerce platform under Alibaba, has been responding to trade challenges by launching new models like semi-fulfillment and focusing on expanding international markets. Amid the U.S. tariff hikes, AliExpress has observed a significant increase in European orders, with growth in markets like France, Italy, and Germany exceeding 45% during promotional events. The platform has been promoting consumption electronics, fashion, and home products while exploring new strategies to adapt to the shifting global trade landscape.
- Temu
Temu - Temu, a Chinese cross-border e-commerce platform, faced challenges due to rising U.S. tariffs, impacting its small-package direct-shipping model. Since early 2025, Temu encouraged sellers to transition to partially managed models, offering multiple benefits. The platform is adjusting to the volatile tariff environment, exploring alternative business strategies, and focusing on global expansion.
- SHEIN
SHEIN - The article highlights the challenges SHEIN faces due to the U.S. raising tariffs on cross-border small packages, severely impacting its business model. In response, SHEIN is diversifying by adopting overseas warehouse-based operations and expanding into alternative international markets, such as Europe, to mitigate risks and adapt to the evolving trade environment.
- TikTok Shop
TikTok Shop - TikTok Shop, facing challenges from increased U.S. tariffs, is accelerating efforts to expand international markets. It recently opened to cross-border sellers in Spain, Germany, Italy, and France, targeting merchants with experience on platforms like Amazon and eBay. This move aims to reduce dependence on the North American market as uncertainties grow. Meanwhile, its push continues despite difficulties, helping sellers transition to global opportunities beyond the U.S. amidst the evolving trade landscape.
- Pinduoduo
拼多多 - Pinduoduo, in response to U.S. tariff increases, stated that its fully managed model is just one of their approaches. They plan to explore diverse models, including semi-managed operations, and will adjust strategies to adapt to changing market conditions. The company seeks opportunities amidst challenges, signaling a flexible approach to navigating global trade uncertainties.
- Amazon
亚马逊 - The article briefly mentions Amazon as a platform where Chinese products are sold in the U.S. It highlights how Chinese exporters face rising costs due to increased tariffs, impacting margins. For example, a Chinese producer raised prices on Amazon to cover tariff costs. It also notes concerns about customs inefficiencies and potential "gray channel" solutions, such as routing goods through Canada. Questionable practices and cost adjustments may impact Amazon's ecosystem for Chinese sellers amidst the U.S. trade policy shifts.
- eBay
eBay - The article does not mention specific details about eBay. It briefly notes that TikTok Shop is accepting merchants with experience on platforms like eBay, Amazon, and Wayfair to expand into new markets, particularly in Europe.
- Wayfair
Wayfair - Wayfair is mentioned in the context of TikTok Shop's recent announcement, which encourages cross-border merchants with experience on platforms like Wayfair, Amazon, and eBay to join. This highlights Wayfair as part of the broader cross-border e-commerce ecosystem, where merchants are seeking alternative markets amidst U.S. trade policy uncertainties.
- Noon
NOON - Noon is a Middle Eastern e-commerce platform increasing its recruitment of Chinese sellers amid the U.S. tariff hike. It has been targeting Chinese businesses for cross-border trade, especially affected by the new tariff policies. Noon aims to capitalize on the shifting trade dynamics and offers Chinese merchants a regional market alternative to diversify their international presence, particularly in the Middle East region.
- Fnac Darty
FNAC DARTY - Fnac Darty, a French cross-border e-commerce platform, is leveraging the U.S. tariff situation to increase its recruitment of Chinese merchants. The platform aims to attract more sellers amid shifting global trade patterns caused by heightened tariffs, offering an alternative market for exporters seeking to diversify from U.S. reliance.
- Rakuten
乐天 - The article mentions Rakuten as one of the cross-border e-commerce platforms increasing efforts to attract Chinese merchants amid the U.S. tariff storm. Both Rakuten Japan and Rakuten France are highlighted as actively expanding outreach to capitalize on shifting trade dynamics caused by elevated U.S. tariffs.
- Alibaba.com
阿里国际站 - Alibaba.com's international platform, catering to global trade, witnessed a surge in European orders amid U.S. tariff increases. In its March promotional period, European orders grew by over 45% year-over-year, led by markets like France and Italy. Key product categories included electronics, apparel, home goods, and beauty items. While U.S. market growth slowed, Alibaba focuses on expanding in diverse regions, particularly "Belt and Road" countries, achieving over 50% growth in those markets during 2024.
- Anker Innovations
安克创新 - Anker Innovations, a major Chinese 3C accessories company, is addressing U.S. tariffs by accelerating shipments and leveraging overseas warehouses to buffer short-term cost pressures. It is also expanding production and supply chain facilities in other countries, focusing on cost reduction and product innovation. Long-term strategies include exploring non-U.S. markets like Europe, Southeast Asia, Australia, and Latin America to maintain competitiveness amidst shifting trade dynamics. This approach aligns with its goal of building operational resilience and global market presence.
- JD.com
京东 - JD.com announced plans to purchase at least 200 billion yuan worth of export-to-domestic transfer goods within a year to assist foreign trade enterprises in rapidly developing domestic markets.
- Freshippo
盒马 - Freshippo (Hema) announced on April 11 that it is fast-tracking approval processes for foreign trade enterprises, offering a 24-hour expedited certification for entry into its "Yunxianghui" channel. Additionally, it plans to launch a "foreign trade special zone," providing supply chain and product development support to help businesses impacted by export barriers shift focus to the domestic market.
- Yonghui Superstores
永辉超市 - Yonghui Superstores announced a "green channel" to help clear inventory for companies struggling with export obstructions. It offers a 15-day expedited listing process and promotional support for products entering the domestic market. On April 7, Yonghui began negotiations with over 70 supply chain companies, including suppliers previously exporting to American markets like Costco and Sam's Club.
- Costco
开市客 - The article mentions that in response to U.S. tariffs affecting exports, Chinese retailer Yonghui Superstores announced collaboration with over 70 supply chain enterprises, including suppliers to Costco and Sam's Club, to manage inventory and develop new products for domestic markets.
- Sam's Club
山姆 - Sam's Club is mentioned in the article as a retailer supplied by some U.S. market suppliers. It is noted that companies like Yonghui Superstores are engaging with their supply chain partners, including those that provide goods to retailers such as Sam's Club and Costco, to facilitate the sale of export-oriented goods domestically due to the impact of U.S. tariffs.
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