Navigating a Ruleless New World Amid Trump’s Tariff War (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】贸易战第一轮：置身没有规则的新世界

From April 2 to April 9, the global trade landscape underwent dramatic shifts following former U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement and subsequent partial suspension of "reciprocal tariffs." Initially imposing widespread tariffs on over 180 countries, including unprecedented measures like a 104% tariff increase on Chinese goods, Trump’s policy triggered significant upheaval in financial and commodity markets, marking a milestone in trade tensions that disrupted the global economic system [para. 1][para. 3].

Trump’s approach, characterized by aggressive rhetoric and inconsistent decision-making, relied on forcing trade partners into negotiations while showcasing U.S. dominance. By April 8, U.S. officials claimed over 70 countries had initiated talks to avoid tariffs, though no substantive agreements were reached. Just hours after enforcement, Trump paused additional tariffs for 90 days, replacing them with a uniform 10% baseline rate across all partners but further raising Chinese tariffs to 125%, exacerbating tensions with Beijing [para. 3][para. 7].

The impact was felt globally, with U.S. stock indices like the Nasdaq and Dow Jones experiencing their steepest declines in years. The Nasdaq plunged 22.73% into a bear market by April 9, while European and Asian markets also faced significant losses. Vietnam's VN30 Index fell 15%, Japan's Nikkei tumbled 23%, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 5.57% in a single day. Analysts like Lawrence Summers warned this tariff policy could trigger a U.S.-led financial crisis, bolstering predictions of stagnation and recession by institutions like Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs [para. 9][para. 11].

Countries responded with countermeasures and emergency economic policies. China raised tariffs on U.S. imports to 84% by April 10, with plans for further increases if necessary, while the European Union approved retaliatory tariffs against American goods. Canada announced auto-sector-focused duties, shielding itself from broader U.S. tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Meanwhile, Vietnam and Japan scrambled to negotiate, though conflicting U.S. statements hindered progress [para. 4][para. 8][para. 13].

The broader geopolitical fallout saw nations like France reassess trade diversification, with discussions to deepen EU-Mercosur ties. Meanwhile, the U.K. intensified financial negotiations with India. In Asia, leaders from Vietnam and Japan expressed concerns over the disruptive impact of the tariffs, despite exploring export market diversifications. China, potentially the hardest-hit, leaned on multilateral diplomacy, aligning with the EU and ASEAN to advocate for free trade [para. 12][para. 15][para. 17].

The U.S.'s unpredictable approach casts doubt over near-term resolutions, particularly as trade serves as a tool for broader negotiation agendas, encompassing defense and energy resource commitments from allies like Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, analysts predict a shift toward global multipolar trade, with countries reducing dependence on U.S. markets to mitigate risks [para. 18][para. 19].

Despite a temporary reprieve, the week’s events have heightened uncertainty, reshaped global trade dynamics, and posed long-term challenges for economic recovery. Coupled with growing tensions between the U.S., China, and the EU, this period crystallizes substantial risks to the stability of the international trade system [para. 24][para. 27].