One of the Latest Cover Stories | Seven Days that Shook the Trade World (AI Translation)

最新封面报道之一｜震撼贸易世界的七天

The summary of the content is as follows:

The global trade system faced turmoil between April 2 and April 9, 2025, as former U.S. President Donald Trump announced and then suspended "reciprocal tariffs" targeting over 180 countries and regions. Initially, tariffs exceeding 10% targeted one-third of U.S. trading partners, with China facing rates as high as 104%, creating heightened geopolitical and economic tensions. Within days, the European Union, China, and other countries retaliated with their own tariffs or countermeasures, signaling an imminent trade war [para. 1][para. 3].

The announcement caused dramatic financial market declines. By April 3, U.S. markets shed $3.1 trillion in value, with indices like the Nasdaq entering bear territory. European and Asian markets also suffered, with Japan's Nikkei 225 plummeting 23% from its peak, and Vietnam's VN30 Index falling 15% by April 9. Economists warned of potential U.S.-led financial crises, rising stagflation risks, and global economic slowdowns. Goldman Sachs, for instance, lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 2.5% to 0.5%, raising recession odds to 45% [para. 4][para. 5].

Although Trump announced a temporary suspension of differentiated tariffs on April 9, reducing all partners to a uniform 10% rate for 90 days, the situation remains volatile. Some proposed increases—such as raising China's tariffs to as high as 125%—exacerbate global uncertainties. Countries targeted by the tariffs, including China, Canada, the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, have issued countermeasures, varying from retaliatory tariffs to exploring alternative trade relationships [para. 6][para. 7].

China has been central to the conflict, facing multiple rounds of tariff hikes since February. On April 10, China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%. Chinese officials have remained firm, stating they would never succumb to U.S. "bullying tactics," emphasizing through both retaliatory tariffs and global diplomatic outreach that they aim to uphold multilateralism in global trade [para. 8][para. 9].

The European Union proposed trade negotiations but faced rejection by Trump, illustrating a strained U.S.-EU trade relationship. The bloc has started adopting countermeasures, including delayed retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum, while signaling its readiness to escalate actions against U.S. digital services or businesses under its "anti-coercion toolbox." Countries like Canada have similarly opposed U.S. policies while negotiating exemptions, such as retaining favorable treatment under the USMCA. Japan and South Korea have announced emergency fiscal measures, including subsidies or tax relief, to mitigate domestic economic fallout from U.S. tariffs [para. 10][para. 11][para. 12].

Emerging economies such as Vietnam have prioritized adjusting their export structures and improving product quality to diversify their trade exposure. Vietnam’s heavy dependence on U.S. trade, accounting for 30% of its total exports in 2024, leaves its economy especially vulnerable, with GDP growth potentially dropping to 3–4% if tariffs linger. Nevertheless, some nations, such as Vietnam and India, are leveraging the turbulence to deepen ties with China, ASEAN, or Europe [para. 13][para. 14][para. 15].

Imposing tariffs on global partners has caused political backlash toward Trump’s erratic policies, which many describe as undermining global trade stability. While some countries have begun negotiations, no substantive progress has been achieved. Trump's unpredictability complicates negotiations, with conflicting signals from his administration leaving nations uncertain about his agenda [para. 16][para. 17].

Multilateral initiatives to counter U.S. actions are gaining momentum. China, the EU, and ASEAN voiced commitments to strengthening trade ties and upholding WTO principles. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that the bloc would focus more on trade beyond U.S. markets, representing 83% of global trade. Analysts speculate that these developments may accelerate global economic multipolarity, further eroding the U.S.’s influence in shaping international trade [para. 18][para. 19].

In conclusion, Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy has unleashed economic, geopolitical, and trade challenges globally. While some temporary market reprieve has emerged, the protracted uncertainties mean risks of trade wars—and their cascading effects on global economic growth—remain substantial. Most countries now seek multilateral dialogue and collaboration to rebuild stability amidst ongoing tensions. [para. 20][para. 21][para. 22]