Analysis: Mapping the U.S. Tariff Shock on Chinese Manufacturing
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Extent of U.S. exposure in China’s manufacturing sectors
Export & Revenue Perspective: Consumer electronics together with cultural, educational, sports and entertainment (CESE) products exhibit high direct dependence on the U.S. market, while textiles and electrical machinery show greater indirect dependence through supply chains. When considering both direct and indirect exports, consumer goods industries generally maintain significant exposure to the U.S. market. While CESE products and consumer electronics are heavily dependent on direct exports, textiles and electrical machinery derive most of their U.S.-related revenue indirectly. Although overall manufacturing revenue dependence on U.S. exports gradually declined over the years, sectors such as CESE goods, furniture and textiles remain highly reliant.

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- U.S. exposure in China’s manufacturing is highest in consumer electronics, CESE products, textiles, and electrical machinery, with direct and indirect export ties; consumer goods industries remain significantly exposed despite a gradual decline.
- In 2024, high-exposure sectors comprised 52.5% of employment and 31.4% of manufacturing investment, but tariffs since 2018 prompted export drops, revenue and profit declines, and margin pressures.
- Tariffs mainly threaten employment and incomes in consumer electronics and clothing, with spillover effects in textiles; investment effects are limited due to small sector shares.
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- Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co. Ltd. is a leading Chinese securities and financial services firm. It provides services such as investment banking, asset management, brokerage, and research. The company is known for its strong research division and influential chief economists, like Zhao Wei, who often offer insights on macroeconomic and sectoral developments, including China’s manufacturing and international trade exposure.
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