Commentary: In Trade Wars, Everyone Loses
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Monitors in the press area during the IMF and World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, DC, on April 21, 2025. Photo: Bloomberg
The International Monetary Fund’s latest forecasts paint a grim picture of a global economy buckling under escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks, with growth slowing to levels rarely seen outside of financial crises and pandemics.
At its Spring Meetings in late April, the IMF released three key reports — the World Economic Outlook, Financial Stability Report and Fiscal Monitor. These assessments, offering forecasts, analysis and policy advice, marked the IMF’s first major review since the Trump administration intensified tariff actions in February.
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- The IMF cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8%, among the weakest since 2003, citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks.
- U.S. growth forecasts were lowered to 1.8% in 2025, with recession risk rising to 40%; China faces demand-side pressures, mainly from tariffs.
- The IMF warns both economies suffer in a trade war and urges policymakers to reduce uncertainty, bolster policy buffers, and ease trade frictions.
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- Lehman Brothers
- Lehman Brothers was a major U.S. investment bank that filed for bankruptcy in September 2008, marking the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Its collapse was a pivotal event in the global financial crisis, triggering severe turmoil in financial markets and leading to widespread economic downturn. The article references Lehman Brothers to highlight how even during that crisis, global GDP growth (2.9%) was stronger than current IMF forecasts for 2025.
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