What Are China’s Challenges to Expanding Exports Outside the U.S.? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 冯奕铭 卢羽桐 包云红 罗国平
By Caixin Weekly’s Feng Yiming, Lu Yutong, Bao Yunhong, and Luo Guoping
等泊数日的集装箱船重新靠港装货、贸易商休假取消、集卡司机等来了久违的单子。
After waiting at anchor for several days, container ships have resumed docking to load cargo, traders have canceled their vacations, and container truck drivers are finally receiving orders again after a long lull.
5月13日上午，在上海港等货的集卡司机王师傅接到了他在“五一”后的第一单——将滞留在洋山保税区近一个月的一个大集装箱运去洋山港码头。此前由于美国加征关税，许多报完关但没来得及赶在4月9日上船运出的集装箱被滞留在保税区堆场内。王师傅告诉财新，由于货少车多，他4月平均每周只能跑一趟，而在美国多次关税加征前，他一般两三天就能接一单活。
On the morning of May 13, truck driver Wang, who was waiting for cargo at Shanghai Port, received his first order since the May Day holiday—a job to transport a large container that had been stranded in the Yangshan Free Trade Zone for nearly a month to the Yangshan Port terminal. Previously, due to increased U.S. tariffs, many containers that had completed customs declaration but failed to make it onto ships before April 9 were left stranded in the bonded zone's storage yards. Wang told Caixin that because there are now more trucks than cargo, he averaged only one trip per week in April. Before the series of U.S. tariff hikes, he could normally secure a job every two or three days.
5月12日，中美两国发布日内瓦经贸谈判联合声明（下称“联合声明”）。消息传出，被美国高关税和中国反制“冰冻”了月余的港口与船舶迅速热闹起来。
On May 12, China and the United States issued a joint statement on the Geneva economic and trade negotiations (hereinafter referred to as the "Joint Statement"). Upon release of the news, ports and ships, which had been in limbo for over a month due to the U.S. imposition of high tariffs and China's reciprocal countermeasures, rapidly returned to bustling activity.
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- Following a joint U.S.-China statement lowering tariffs on some goods, China’s exports to the U.S.—notably consumer products and lithium batteries—rebounded sharply, but supply chain recovery for raw materials like steel and aluminum remains slow due to persistently high tariffs.
- Chinese exporters and cross-border e-commerce platforms are diversifying into non-U.S. markets and expanding domestic sales, with April’s exports to ASEAN and Latin America offsetting declining U.S. shipments.
- China’s imports from the U.S. (e.g., LNG, soybeans) remain subdued as retaliatory tariffs persist; alternative global supply chains lessen U.S. trade reliance.
Summary
After weeks of stagnation caused by escalating U.S.-China tariff tensions, activity at China’s ports, particularly Shanghai, has rapidly recovered since the two countries issued a joint trade statement on May 12. The agreement covered a 90-day period during which tariffs were significantly reduced: U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imposed in Trump’s second term fell from 145% to 30%, with parcel tariffs dropping from 120% to 54%. China reciprocated by lowering tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%. This led to a surge in export bookings, with traders and logistics firms resuming suspended operations and container traffic rebounding rapidly, though the number of ships and available containers has not yet reached pre-trade war levels [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3][para. 4][para. 5][para. 6][para. 7].
Before the agreement, tariff hikes had left around one month’s worth of export goods stranded at ports, and shipping rates on the China-U.S. route had jumped by 25%, from $2,000 to $2,500 per 40-foot container by mid-May. The rapid tariff adjustments echoed the speed of the latest trade maneuverings—40 days of escalation and reversal—contrasting with the 23 months of negotiation that produced the Phase One deal in Trump’s previous term [para. 2][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10].
Exporters have rushed to capitalize on the temporary tariff reductions. End-consumer goods, small commodities, and auto parts shipments to the U.S. have surged, and major companies such as Midea quickly resumed exports. However, new punitive tariffs have left Chinese exporters and American buyers negotiating who will absorb the extra cost—under new rates, products like electrical equipment and textiles now face overall tariffs above 45% [para. 11][para. 12][para. 13][para. 14][para. 15][para. 16]. For some suppliers, the latest round of mutual concessions has triggered a wave of stockpiling, with U.S. clients requesting large shipments in anticipation of possible renewed tariff hikes [para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20][para. 21]. The short “window period” is spurring panic buying for Black Friday and Christmas, reinforcing rapid but likely short-lived trade flows [para. 22][para. 23][para. 24].
At the same time, sectors like cross-border e-commerce have been hit by changes such as the closure of duty-free customs channels. Platforms like Temu and SHEIN responded by limiting direct-from-China shipments during the tariff peak, but have since begun to restore their fully managed models after the tariff adjustment [para. 25][para. 26][para. 27]. Beyond the U.S., Chinese exporters are accelerating outreach to Europe, Latin America, and domestic markets. In April 2025, Temu and SHEIN boosted ad spending by up to 40% in France and the U.K., and by 800 times in Brazil. Companies like Alibaba and TikTok Shop are also pivoting to new countries and domestic sales, supported by local trade fairs and eased entry to e-commerce platforms [para. 28][para. 29][para. 30][para. 31][para. 32][para. 33][para. 34].
This shift is part of a broader trend: exports to ASEAN and Latin America now offset declining U.S. orders. In April, China’s exports of intermediate and capital goods grew over 8%, while consumer goods dropped by 4%. Domestic channels—like Yonghui Superstores—are absorbing more formerly exported goods, though merchants find “export-to-domestic” sales present significant regulatory and market challenges [para. 35][para. 36][para. 37][para. 38][para. 39].
Meanwhile, recovery in U.S.-bound exports of high-value industrial goods remains slow. Bulk products like steel, aluminum, and advanced batteries still face effective tariffs often exceeding 70%, and in some cases over 400%. Notably, lithium batteries—a crucial Chinese export—saw the U.S. drop from the top to the second-largest buyer as tariffs took effect, but may rebound temporarily during the 90-day exemption [para. 40][para. 41][para. 42][para. 43][para. 44][para. 45][para. 46]. Supply chain risks, relocation by Western manufacturers, and new Chinese regulations on rare earth exports are reshaping long-term trade flows [para. 47][para. 48][para. 49].
On the import side, China’s purchases of U.S. agricultural and energy products remain depressed despite some tariff relief: in 2024, the U.S. provided just 5.43% of China’s LNG imports and less than 2% of crude oil. Recent countermeasures led to a “freeze” in U.S. LNG imports and sharply lower oil and grain purchases, with China increasingly turning to alternative suppliers such as Brazil [para. 50][para. 51][para. 52][para. 53][para. 54][para. 55][para. 56][para. 57][para. 58][para. 59][para. 60].
In conclusion, the mutual tariff suspensions have triggered a rapid, albeit likely transitory, spike in two-way trade, but underlying tensions and a structural shift toward market diversification and increased domestic absorption are expected to persist. Both policy and corporate strategies point to further decoupling and risk management in anticipation of renewed U.S.-China trade uncertainties [para. 61][para. 62][para. 63][para. 64][para. 65][para. 66][para. 67][para. 68][para. 69][para. 70][para. 71][para. 72][para. 73].
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
地中海航运 - According to the article, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) is the world's largest container shipping company. Its container ship MSC IVANA docked at Shanghai Yangshan Port on May 12 to begin loading cargo. Previously, after returning from Los Angeles on May 3, it had to anchor outside the Yangtze River estuary due to a lack of cargo amid the U.S.-China tariff dispute.
- Jefferies
Jefferies - According to the article, Jefferies released a report on May 13, noting that even before the joint statement was announced, Chinese suppliers had begun returning to the market. As a result, trans-Pacific shipping rates surged quickly, rising from $2,000 per 40-foot standard container in mid-April to about $2,500 following the announcement.
- Midea Group
美的集团 - According to the article, Midea Group (000333.SZ), a major exporter, quickly resumed shipments to the U.S. following the reduction of tariffs. Unlike many small and medium-sized companies that halted production during the tariff increase, large exporters like Midea continued organizing production, allowing them to promptly restart exports once the new policy took effect.
- Kaiyuan Securities
开源证券 - Kaiyuan Securities' analysis in the article states that after the China-US joint statement, US tariffs on Chinese electrical equipment reached 45.3%, textiles and clothing 49%, nonferrous metals 48.8%, light manufacturing 36.9%, and electronics 35.1%. Exporters must negotiate how to share the still-high tax burden with US buyers, even after the recent tariff reductions.
- Huatai Securities
华泰证券 - According to the article, Huatai Securities observed that in April, while China’s exports to the U.S. declined, exports to ASEAN and Latin America surged, effectively offsetting the negative impact on total exports. Huatai noted that China’s overall export value in April grew by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, and highlighted robust growth in intermediate and capital goods exports compared to consumer goods.
- GF Securities
国金证券 - The article mentions GF Securities (广发证券) by stating: "Guojin Securities pointed out that China is increasing efforts in 'going overseas' to avoid direct US tariffs, and non-US re-exports were a main support for April's export data." No further specific information about GF Securities is provided in the article.
- Anji SIPG International Port Company Limited
安吉上港国际港务有限公司 - Anji SIPG International Port Company Limited operates foreign trade feeder lines. Its general manager, Huang Shaoyuan, told Caixin that after the tariff reduction announcement, major exporters like Midea quickly resumed shipments since they continued production during the tariff hikes. In contrast, small and medium enterprises, lacking inventory capacity, would need about a month to restart production and shipping, with expected outbound shipments beginning in mid-June.
- Alibaba Group
阿里巴巴集团 - Alibaba Group is increasing its advertising investment in European markets such as France and the UK, and is targeting Europe due to its strong overall consumption power, comparable to the US. Chairman Joe Tsai stated he has recently focused on European markets, and Alibaba International is also supporting Chinese suppliers to expand in Europe as businesses diversify beyond the US amid the trade war.
- Shanghai Verdant
上海威迩达 - There is no information about "Shanghai Verdant" in the provided article content. The article focuses on the impact of recent U.S.-China tariff changes on various sectors, shipping, and companies involved in international trade, but does not mention Shanghai Verdant.
- Shenzhen Maijijia Home Co., Ltd.
深圳市麦祺佳家居有限公司 - Shenzhen Maijijia Home Co., Ltd. is a home goods company mentioned in the article. Its General Manager, Wang Li, noted that after the recent tariff reductions, American clients rushed to move previously warehoused goods, placing new and larger orders to take advantage of the 90-day window. The company aims to reduce U.S. market reliance to below 30%, focusing on expanding into Europe and South America.
- Yiwu Jingwen Import & Export Co., Ltd.
义乌市璟文进出口有限公司 - Yiwu Jingwen Import & Export Co., Ltd. is a company based in Yiwu, China, engaged in international trade. According to the article, its General Manager, Wu Qingfen, noted that after the recent tariff reductions, their American customers doubled their order quantities, likely to stock up in anticipation of future uncertainties after the 90-day tariff window.
- Wenzhou Desay Group
温州德赛集团 - Wenzhou Desay Group began domestic e-commerce livestreaming in 2020, transitioning from large, single-product export orders to a flexible domestic supply chain. They established a local R&D team, introduced independent product lines, and plan to launch their own brand and open offline stores. Their experience in the trade war inspired a shift from contract manufacturing ("factory label") to building their own brands.
- Shenzhen Xiangfeiyang Technology Co., Ltd.
深圳市翔飞扬科技有限公司 - Shenzhen Xiangfeiyang Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in apparel products. The person in charge, Yang Rong, stated that after the US-China joint statement, the company notified US clients that large quantities of goods stored in China could be shipped. For new orders, the increased tariff costs are generally expected to be borne by the US clients, given the company's low profit margins on US orders; some costs may be partly absorbed for major clients.
- Shantou Feiying Technology Co., Ltd.
汕头市飞鹰科技有限公司 - Shantou Feiying Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in outdoor products and continued normal shipments to the U.S. even during high tariff phases. The company’s U.S. customers bear all tariff costs. The company avoided tariff impacts by choosing Los Angeles port, which refused additional tariffs on Chinese goods. After tariff reductions, they expect further order growth, while big American clients remain cautious.
- Counterpoint
Counterpoint - Counterpoint is cited in the article through Ivan Lam, a senior analyst. He comments on the consumer electronics supply chain, stating that while the recent mutual tariff reductions between China and the U.S. will restore some orders, businesses remain cautious due to risks and previously incurred losses. Lam notes that price trends are likely to be stable or slowly increase, and companies are not placing aggressive long-term orders at this stage.
- Temu
Temu - According to the article, during the recent U.S.-China tariff war, Temu shifted to selling only from U.S. local warehouses, suspending direct shipments from China. After the reduction in tariffs, Temu announced the return of its full consignment model for U.S. shipments. Although higher tariffs will slow cross-border e-commerce growth, Chinese direct-shipped items on Temu still maintain a price advantage, especially for personalized and flexible products. Temu is also expanding advertising in Europe and Brazil.
- SHEIN
SHEIN - The article states that after the US imposed high tariffs, SHEIN reduced its advertising spending on US social media and increased advertising in Europe and Brazil. In April 2025, SHEIN's advertising investment in France and the UK rose by 35%, and its UK app downloads grew by 25%. SHEIN also significantly increased advertising spending in Brazil, where its ad expenses were up 140% year-on-year.
- AliExpress
AliExpress（阿里速卖通） - The article mentions that the sharp increase in cross-border direct shipping taxes (with small parcel rates briefly rising to 120%, then lowered to 54%) impacts platforms like Temu, SHEIN, and AliExpress (AE). It suggests that the surge and subsequent rollback in tax rates have disrupted the growth path of these platforms, as the changes have forced major adjustments to their cross-border sales models targeting the U.S. market.
- Shenzhen Topology
深圳拓扑 - Shenzhen Topology is a cross-border e-commerce independent site operation service provider. Its founder and CEO is Lu Cong. In the article, Lu points out that the advantage of Chinese cross-border e-commerce small parcels is not necessarily price, but rather product customization and flexibility. Even during high tariffs, some independent site sellers still shipped small parcels via direct mail.
- Sensor Tower
Sensor Tower - Sensor Tower is a market research firm mentioned in the article for providing data on advertising investments. According to the article, in April 2025, Sensor Tower reported significant increases in advertising spending by cross-border platforms SHEIN and Temu in countries like France and the UK, as well as notable growth in app downloads, demonstrating the platforms' strategic shift to non-U.S. markets.
- TikTok Shop
TikTok Shop - According to the article, TikTok Shop is accelerating its expansion into markets outside North America. In April 2025, it officially opened its platform to cross-border sellers for Spain, Germany, Italy, and France, accepting merchants with experience on platforms like Amazon and eBay. It also emphasizes support for eligible existing TikTok Shop U.S. sellers. In May, TikTok Shop plans to launch beta testing for its Japan site, with formal operations starting in June.
- Amazon
亚马逊 - According to the article, many clients of Chinese exporters are Amazon sellers in Europe. After the U.S. trade war and increased tariffs, some Chinese companies are shifting their focus away from the U.S. to European and South American markets, including supporting Amazon sellers on European platforms as part of their diversification strategy.
- eBay
eBay - According to the article, TikTok Shop, in April 2025, officially opened its platform to cross-border merchants in markets including Spain, Germany, Italy, and France, accepting merchants with experience operating on third-party platforms such as Amazon, eBay, and Wayfair. This highlights eBay as one of the major platforms whose sellers are being targeted for expansion into new international e-commerce channels.
- Wayfair
Wayfair - Wayfair is mentioned in the article as one of the third-party platforms (along with Amazon and eBay) whose operational experience is now accepted by TikTok Shop for cross-border merchants looking to enter new European markets like Spain, Germany, Italy, and France as of April 2025. This indicates Wayfair's relevance as an e-commerce platform for international sellers expanding beyond the US market.
- Auchan
欧尚 - According to the article, Jiangsu Huateng previously worked as an OEM for major supermarket chains in Europe and the U.S., including Auchan, Aldi, Carrefour, and Walmart. European and U.S. sales accounted for roughly 40% and 20% respectively, with the remaining sales from South America, Southeast Asia, and the domestic Chinese market.
- ALDI
奥乐齐 - According to the article, Jiangsu Huateng, a Chinese personal care product manufacturer, has long been an OEM supplier for major international supermarket chains, including ALDI, Auchan, Carrefour, and Walmart, serving both European and US markets. ALDI's share of the company's sales is mentioned in the context of their export business, highlighting the company's diversified global customer base beyond just the US market.
- Carrefour
家乐福 - Carrefour is mentioned in the article as one of the major supermarkets in Europe and the U.S. for which Jiangsu Huaten has long served as an OEM (original equipment manufacturer). About 40% of Jiangsu Huaten's sales are to Europe, including Carrefour, indicating its significant reliance on export markets. The company is now focusing more on expanding in the domestic Chinese market due to changing global trade dynamics.
- Walmart
沃尔玛 - The article mentions that Jiangsu Huateng, a personal care products company in China, has long been an OEM supplier for major supermarket chains in Europe and the US, including Walmart. Currently, sales to Europe and the US account for about 40% and 20% of its business, respectively. The company plans to make domestic sales equal to overseas sales in the future.
- Yonghui Superstores
永辉超市 - Yonghui Superstores is mentioned as a domestic retail channel that Jiangsu Huaten leveraged to sell products as part of the "export to domestic sales" initiative. Products were placed in special foreign trade zones within Yonghui stores, with dedicated product selection, factory inspection, and Chinese packaging, aiming to adapt export products for the local Chinese market amidst trade uncertainties with the U.S.
- Guangzhou Shifei Cosmetics Co., Ltd.
广州诗妃化妆品有限公司 - Guangzhou Shifei Cosmetics Co., Ltd., located in Baiyun District—a major Chinese cosmetics manufacturing hub—specializes in ODM (original design manufacturing) for cosmetics. Established in 2006 and initially export-focused, Shifei now generates over 65% of its sales overseas, with about 20% from the U.S. Selling cosmetics domestically requires separate regulatory approval; Shifei is increasing its domestic market presence, especially through partnerships with online retailers.
- Pupu Supermarket
朴朴超市 - Pupu Supermarket is mentioned as a partner with Guangzhou Shifei Cosmetics Co., which engages in ODM (original design manufacturing) business. Shifei has collaborated with Pupu Supermarket to develop its own brand, leveraging Shifei’s contract manufacturing experience. This reflects the trend of foreign trade manufacturers adapting their capabilities to serve domestic supermarket and platform brands as they expand their domestic sales channels.
- Zhejiang Maibo Industrial Co., Ltd.
浙江麦铂实业有限公司 - Zhejiang Maibo Industrial Co., Ltd. is a thermos mug manufacturer located in Wuyi County, Zhejiang Province, with a focus on foreign trade in the hardware industry. The company began exploring the domestic market and developing its own brand before the tariff war and later shifted its emphasis to domestic business. They formed a team familiar with local market demands and recognized that consumer needs and preferences differ significantly between China and overseas markets.
- Baotou Tianhe Magnetics Technology Co., Ltd.
包头市天和磁材科技股份有限公司 - Baotou Tianhe Magnetics Technology Co., Ltd. (天和磁材) is a leading Chinese producer of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials, headquartered in Baotou, Inner Mongolia. Its end customers mainly include automotive and parts companies such as the Volkswagen Group, Brose, and Bosch. Following recent China-U.S. trade negotiations, Tianhe Magnetics received a batch of rare earth export licenses from China’s Ministry of Commerce, enabling resumed exports under new regulatory requirements.
- Baotou Inst Magnetic New Materials Co., Ltd.
包头英斯特稀磁新材料股份有限公司 - Baotou Inst Magnetic New Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 301622.SZ) is a Chinese producer of rare earth permanent magnet materials. The company recently confirmed it received export licenses for rare earth materials following the easing of China’s export controls post China-U.S. trade negotiations. The company is based in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, a major center for China’s rare earth industry.
- Anhui Earth-Panda Advance Magnetic Material Co., Ltd.
安徽大地熊新材料股份有限公司 - Anhui Earth-Panda Advance Magnetic Material Co., Ltd. (688077.SH) is a domestic producer of rare earth permanent magnet materials in China. Following the recent China-U.S. trade negotiations, the company confirmed to Caixin that it has received export permits for controlled metals, with relevant procedures progressing smoothly.
- LG Energy Solution
LG新能源 - LG Energy Solution, a South Korean lithium battery company, announced in late April that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries this year, one year ahead of schedule. This move aims to capture US orders amid ongoing US-China tariff tensions. In 2024, LG Energy Solution ranked as the world's second-largest battery supplier after China’s CATL and BYD.
- Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL)
宁德时代 - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) is China’s leading battery manufacturer, with the highest level of internationalization among Chinese lithium battery companies. CATL does not have production capacity in the U.S.; instead, it enters the market through trade and technology partnerships, such as with Ford. Concerns about political risks and unpredictability in the U.S. have prevented CATL and its peers from establishing factories there.
- BYD
比亚迪 - According to the article, BYD (stock code 002594.SZ) is mentioned as one of the leading global battery companies, ranking alongside CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology). Specifically, in 2024, BYD’s global shipment volume was second only to CATL and LG Energy Solution, highlighting BYD’s significant presence in the lithium battery sector.
- Ford Motor Company
福特汽车 - The article mentions that CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited), a leading Chinese battery company, has a technology partnership with Ford Motor Company for a lithium battery plant in Michigan. However, the project faced political scrutiny in the U.S., with multiple congressional inquiries and construction suspensions due to concerns over Chinese involvement.
- Volkswagen Group
大众汽车集团 - According to the article, Volkswagen Group is mentioned as one of the main end-users of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials supplied by Tianhe Magnetics, a leading Chinese company. These materials are crucial components for new energy vehicles and related parts.
- Brose
博泽 - According to the article, Brose is mentioned as one of the main clients of Baotou Tianhe Magnetic Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (天和磁材), a leading Chinese manufacturer of high-performance rare earth permanent magnets. Brose is listed alongside other major automotive companies such as Volkswagen Group and Bosch, indicating its role in the automotive component supply chain that relies on Chinese rare earth materials.
- Bosch
博世 - According to the article, Bosch is mentioned as one of the main end customers served by Baotou Tianhe Magnetic Materials Technology Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese supplier of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials. These magnets are primarily used in new energy vehicles and their components.
- Argus Media
阿格斯 - According to the article, Argus (referred to as "阿格斯" in Chinese) is an international energy and commodities price assessment agency. In the context of the article, Argus tracks market procurement activities, including China's bulk soybean purchases from Brazil. Argus provides insights into international commodity flows and pricing, especially in response to shifts resulting from trade tensions like the US-China tariff dispute.
- Kpler
Kpler - Kpler is an energy analysis company specializing in tracking global commodity flows using ship tracking data. In the article, Kpler's vessel tracking data is cited to illustrate changes in China's LNG and crude oil imports from the United States, highlighting declines in LNG imports to zero since March and significant drops in crude oil imports in early 2025.
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