In Depth: Trump’s Unlikely Plan to Revive Coal Power (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】深度：特朗普重启煤电为何难以成功

On April 8, President Donald Trump, flanked by coal miners, signed an executive order to expand coal mining and usage, positioning coal as a solution for the mounting electricity needs driven by AI data centers in the U.S. Trump emphasized leveraging existing coal-fired infrastructure for AI-powered growth, arguing that the government would end its bias against coal. By his first 100 days back in office, Trump had signed close to 140 executive orders, with many focusing on deregulating energy and environmental sectors to prioritize fossil fuel growth, specifically coal revival [para. 1][para. 2][para. 3].

U.S. electricity demand, long seen as stagnating, is experiencing a sharp uptick due to the rise of AI, rapid data center expansion, and the reshoring of manufacturing. Data centers’ planned capacity skyrocketed from 5 GW at the start of 2023 to over 92 GW by the end of 2024, reflecting an unprecedented rate of growth. After a 1.9% year-on-year drop in 2023, U.S. power demand is expected to rise 2% in 2024 and keep growing at a similar pace through 2027 [para. 4][para. 5].

Despite Trump’s policy support, experts remain skeptical of a coal revival. During Trump’s previous term, 54 to 62 GW of coal power retired—more than under Obama or Biden—mainly due to poor economics. The coal workforce halved from nearly 90,000 in 2012 to about 40,000 today, leaving the supply chain fragile. Coal’s share of U.S. power generation plummeted from 52% in 1990 to 16% in 2024, as renewables and gas gained ground. No new coal plants have been built since 2012; instead, cheap natural gas and renewables are crowding coal out of the market [para. 6][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 11][para. 12].

Market-driven realities show coal is becoming increasingly uncompetitive. The lowest projected levelized cost of electricity for new coal plants is over $73/MWh, compared to below $35/MWh for gas and around $30/MWh for wind or solar. Continuing to operate coal plants in the Midwest alone cost consumers over $1 billion extra from 2021–2023. Kentucky, a historical coal bastion, has seen its electricity costs rise as its reliance on coal remains high [para. 13][para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17][para. 18].

Tech companies and new data centers are “voting with their feet”—choosing low-cost natural gas hubs or securing long-term renewable and nuclear PPAs to power facilities. Data centers may consume nearly 9% of all U.S. electricity by 2035, with significant annual growth in demand. The U.S. is also the world’s largest natural gas producer, and both production and demand are forecast to peak in 2032. Notably, Microsoft and Meta are leading deals for clean nuclear power to meet their zero-carbon goals [para. 19][para. 20][para. 21][para. 22][para. 23][para. 24][para. 25].

Policy reversals on climate, such as Trump’s renewed withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, have international repercussions, undermining the global climate finance system and emboldening emerging markets and other nations to backtrack on climate commitments. The U.S. exited multilateral climate finance and regulatory alliances, signaling reduced support for global emission reduction efforts. Coal exports remain a focus, targeting countries that remain reliant on coal for energy security [para. 26][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29][para. 30][para. 31][para. 32][para. 33][para. 34][para. 35][para. 36].

In conclusion, while Trump’s push for coal seeks to leverage a nostalgic image of energy independence and job creation, structural market forces, technological advancement, and the momentum of cleaner and cheaper alternatives render a significant revival unlikely. These policy shifts nevertheless cause ripple effects internationally, shaping investment, energy security strategies, and climate governance worldwide [para. 37][para. 38][para. 39][para. 40].