Commentary: Tehran’s Day of Reckoning Was Decades in the Making

On June 13, Israel launched preemptive airstrikes against key Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile facilities, including Natanz and Shiraz, after diplomatic efforts between Iran and the U.S. collapsed following multiple failed negotiation rounds earlier in the year. The strikes resulted in the deaths of three senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and top nuclear scientists, including prominent IRGC figures. The highly effective operation exposed significant vulnerabilities within Iran’s intelligence and security apparatus, generating a perception of Israeli impunity and power projection inside Iran. In response to the attack, Iran officially withdrew from negotiations with the U.S., escalating regional tensions and marking a significant loss for Tehran both militarily and diplomatically. [para. 1][para. 2]

Iran's present "super-crisis" is the cumulative result of seven major, long-standing internal and external challenges. The first challenge is the crippling effect of 46 years of U.S.-led sanctions, enforced since the 1979 Islamic Revolution—with a brief exception during the 2016-2017 détente. These sanctions have devastated Iran’s economy, causing asset freezes, economic blockades, trade embargoes, travel bans, diplomatic isolation, and military restrictions. Despite Iran's rich natural resources, these barriers have led to chronic economic deterioration and stunted development. [para. 3][para. 4][para. 5]

Secondly, Iran’s clerical theocracy—established after the revolution—replaced secular rule with rigid religious governance, concentrating power in the hands of Supreme Leaders. Social repression, such as the mandatory hijab enforced by the morality police, has amplified public frustration. The 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in police custody triggered nationwide unrest, with government crackdowns deepening social divisions and inflaming the population’s anger. [para. 6][para. 7]

Third, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) has transformed into an all-powerful institution, overshadowing formal government authorities. It commands extensive financial, military, and political resources, controlling key industries and stifling both internal reform and investor confidence, leading to chronic political factionalism within Iran’s elite. [para. 8][para. 9]

Fourth, since the 2023 Israel-Hamas war, the coalition of Iran-led Shia militias and regional partners—the so-called "Axis of Resistance"—has been significantly weakened due to U.S. and Israeli actions. The sudden collapse of Syria’s Assad regime in December 2024 further fractured this alliance, revealing deep military vulnerabilities in Iran’s regional network. [para. 10]

Fifth, Iran now faces a dangerous leadership vacuum. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is nearly 86 and in poor health. His designated successor, former President Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash, increasing political uncertainty and encouraging Israeli assertiveness. Speculation over potential successors underscores a lack of viable alternatives capable of matching Khamenei’s authority. [para. 11][para. 12]

Sixth, with Donald Trump’s return as U.S. President in 2025, the re-imposition of a "maximum pressure" policy has further strangled Iran’s economy by severely curtailing oil exports. Previously, Iran managed to export around 1.7 million barrels per day, generating $30 billion in 2024, but increased enforcement since February has reduced this revenue further. Meanwhile, OPEC+ capacity cushions global oil prices from shocks induced by Iran’s supply constraints. [para. 13][para. 14]

Seventh, Israel continues to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program, preventing Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities—a "red line" for both the U.S. and Israel. These repeated setbacks leave Iran’s nuclear ambitions in limbo, preventing it from leveraging nuclear status for regional power or diplomatic advantages. [para. 15]

The roots of Iran’s predicament trace back to the 1979 hostage crisis, when Iranian revolutionaries detained 52 American diplomats for 444 days. This act deeply humiliated the U.S., an episode that continues to inform Washington’s punitive approach towards Tehran. Together, these seven crises leave Iran’s future bleak, burdened by longstanding structural, political, and economic dysfunctions. [para. 16][para. 17]