In Depth: What Lies Ahead for Israel, Iran and the International Order? (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】深度：以伊冲突持续震荡 两国命运与国际秩序走向何方

Summary:

In June 2025, a sudden and severe conflict broke out between Israel and Iran, escalating the risk of a full-scale war in the Middle East [para. 1]. On June 13, Israel launched a pre-emptive airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, following the end of a U.S.-mediated “60-day negotiation period,” and just days before a planned U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiation round in Oman [para. 1]. Israeli Defense Minister Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu stated the attack targeted Iran’s nuclear threat [para. 1]. The airstrike had devastating results: key Iranian military leaders including IRGC commander Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, and others were killed, and major nuclear facilities, such as Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, were heavily damaged [para. 1].

In response, Iran launched intense retaliatory attacks on Israel, resulting in reciprocal bombings over six days [para. 2]. By June 18, over 585 Iranians and 24 Israelis were reported dead, with thousands injured on both sides [para. 2]. The escalation led to the collapse of the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and the killing of further top Iranian commanders by Israel [para. 2].

The international reaction was mixed: Gulf countries condemned Israel’s attack as a violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Russia warned the U.S. against direct intervention, while France and China urged restraint and a return to diplomacy [para. 3]. The situation pushed the U.S. and Israel closer, with U.S. President Donald Trump deploying three aircraft carriers to the region and not ruling out participation in military action, reversing his earlier isolationist stance and praising Israel’s actions [para. 4][para. 5].

Amid ongoing escalation, mass evacuations were underway: China facilitated the withdrawal of its citizens while Israel planned to repatriate up to 150,000 nationals [para. 6]. Both sides engaged in continuous strikes, with newly appointed Iranian generals targeted and widespread civilian flight from affected cities [para. 7].

The conflict’s roots are deep: Iran’s controversial nuclear program, which the IAEA claimed was weaponizable, led to international sanctions and Israeli anxiety over regional nuclear balance [para. 8]. Israel’s “Begin Doctrine” mandates pre-emptive strikes on perceived nuclear threats, and Netanyahu has shifted Israel’s goal from merely halting Iran’s nuclear program to potential regime change [para. 9]. Despite this, Israel denied regime change as an explicit objective, focusing on neutralizing nuclear dangers [para. 10].

The war’s regional context includes the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime in late 2024, and the realignment of Gulf states, which now condemn regional war [para. 11][para. 12]. Iran’s “resistance axis” suffered major losses, weakening its influence in the region [para. 13][para. 14].

Globally, the crisis shook oil markets, with Brent crude temporarily surging over 13% but settling as uncertainty about energy supply and the risk to the vital Strait of Hormuz persisted [para. 15]. Analysts estimate a full Hormuz closure is unlikely but any disruption would cause significant price spikes and inflation, particularly impacting the U.S. and Asian economies [para. 16][para. 17].

With Israel’s attacks risking nuclear leaks and environmental disaster, regional anxieties now include contamination concerns alongside political instability [para. 18]. Western positions remain unsettled: while some support Israel, others reject military solutions or forced regime change [para. 19][para. 20].

The broader question remains whether the U.S. will intervene directly, which could escalate the regional conflict into wider war. Observers note Iran faces a dilemma: negotiating may undermine regime survival, but refusing may risk collapse under attack. The situation remains fluid, with the world awaiting whether diplomacy, escalation, or dramatic power shifts will follow in the wake of the region’s largest military crisis since 1979 [para. 21][para. 22].