Crisis Facing Shigeru Ishiba Reflects New Challenges in Japanese Politics (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 罗子琳
By Caixin Weekly's Luo Zilin
2025年7月23日下午，日本首相石破茂步出位于东京千代田区的自民党总部会议室，在频频的闪光灯下向媒体发表简短声明。他刚刚结束与自民党首席顾问麻生太郎、副党魁菅义伟以及前首相岸田文雄的一场举国瞩目的会议，与会的四人都曾担任日本首相。这次会议被普遍认为将决定石破茂的首相生涯是否将画上句号。
On the afternoon of July 23, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stepped out of a meeting room at the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo’s Chiyoda Ward and delivered a brief statement to the press, bathed in camera flashes. Ishiba had just concluded a closely watched meeting with LDP Chief Advisor Taro Aso, the party’s deputy leader Yoshihide Suga, and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida—a group in which each of the four has previously served as prime minister. The meeting was widely viewed as pivotal in determining whether Ishiba’s tenure as prime minister was drawing to a close.
镜头前的石破茂声音低沉，维持了一贯的沉静和礼貌：“关于我的去留问题，根本没有任何讨论。虽然有部分媒体报道了相关消息，但我从未发表过这样的声明。”他的身后是一张自民党本届参议院选举中的大幅宣传海报，上面正是石破茂难得激昂的演讲身姿，以及加红放大的标语“我们肩负着推动这个国家前进的责任”。
In front of the cameras, Shigeru Ishiba spoke in a low, steady tone, maintaining his characteristic calmness and courtesy: “There has been no discussion whatsoever about whether I will stay or leave. Although some media outlets have reported on this matter, I have never made any such statement.” Behind him was a large campaign poster from the Liberal Democratic Party’s latest House of Councillors election, featuring a rare image of Ishiba in a passionate stance during a speech, underscored by a bold red slogan: “We bear the responsibility of moving this country forward.”
这场会议召开前数小时，美国总统特朗普突然宣布日美已敲定关税协议，美方下调原定25%的对等关税税率至15%、下调原定25%的汽车关税税率至12.5%，而日本将向美国投资5500亿美元并放开大米等农产品市场。其中多个利益点被认为突破了此前石破茂政府所坚持的谈判底线，也撼动了石破茂以推进日美谈判为自己留任理由的表态立场。
A few hours before the meeting convened, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly announced that the United States and Japan had reached a tariff agreement. The U.S. side would lower the previously proposed reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, and reduce the intended 25% automotive tariff rate to 12.5%. Meanwhile, Japan agreed to invest $550 billion in the United States and further open its market to American agricultural products such as rice. Several points of interest in the deal were seen as exceeding the negotiating bottom lines previously upheld by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration, casting doubt on Ishiba’s position that advancing negotiations with the U.S. justified his continued tenure.
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- Late 2023：
- A 'black money politics' scandal erupts within the Liberal Democratic Party, involving money-for-influence exchanges among party factions.
- Beginning of 2024：
- The LDP dissolves its traditional factions such as the Abe, Kishida, and Nikai groups, triggering investigations and forced retirements of core party politicians.
- October 2024：
- Shigeru Ishiba is elected Prime Minister of Japan after winning the LDP leadership election.
- Eight days after October 2024：
- Ishiba dissolves the House of Representatives and calls a snap general election.
- October 2024：
- The LDP loses its majority in the House of Representatives following the snap election.
- End of 2024：
- The number of foreign residents in Japan reaches 3.8 million, a record high, up from 3.41 million in 2023.
- January 2025：
- Akahata reports that Ishiba's administration used the Cabinet Secretariat confidential funds with unusual frequency, averaging daily expenses of 3.83 million yen after the dissolution of the lower house.
- March 2025：
- NHK and other outlets report that Ishiba allegedly used secret funds to distribute gift certificates to newly elected LDP lawmakers, sparking further scandal.
- May 2025：
- Akahata reveals that the Ishiba government spent 629.4 million yen in confidential funds in six months.
- June 2025：
- The LDP suffers a significant loss in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, securing only 21 seats (the lowest in history for the party).
- June 2025：
- Ishiba's administration coordinates a government release of 200,000 tons of reserve rice to stabilize rice prices.
- End of June 2025：
- An NHK poll reports that 63% of respondents are dissatisfied with Ishiba’s government cash subsidy plan.
- June 29, 2025：
- Mainichi Shimbun publishes a pre-election survey showing the government's approval rating remains below 30% for four consecutive months.
- July 7, 2025：
- Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reports a 2.9% year-on-year decline in real wages in May 2025; rice prices surged 104% from the prior year.
- July 11–14, 2025：
- Jiji Press conducts a poll putting approval for Ishiba’s government at 20.8%, down 6.2 points from the prior month.
- July 17, 2025：
- Goldman Sachs releases a report analyzing the US-Japan tariff impact on Japan’s exporters.
- July 20, 2025：
- Japan holds its 27th House of Councillors election. The LDP-Komeito coalition suffers a major defeat, dropping from 140 to 122 seats, losing its majority for the first time since 1955.
- July 20, 2025：
- Mainichi Shimbun publishes a report showing a surge in online misinformation related to foreigners during the election campaign.
- July 22, 2025：
- LDP Executive Council Chairman Sato Tsutomu and former Policy Research Council Chair Hagiuda Koichi meet and agree that political power should transfer to the opposition; this is communicated to Secretary-General Moriyama Hiroshi.
- July 22, 2025, Eastern Time：
- The United States announces a new trade agreement with Japan, with details later released by the White House.
- Afternoon of July 23, 2025：
- Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers a statement to the press following a meeting with top LDP figures, addressing speculation about his resignation.
- July 23, 2025：
- U.S. President Donald Trump announces the new US-Japan tariff agreement, with the U.S. lowering tariff rates and Japan agreeing to major investments and market openings.
- Twelve hours after July 23, 2025 meeting：
- Sankei Shimbun reports that Taro Aso criticized Ishiba’s leadership at the LDP meeting.
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