Cover: Stablecoins Face Reality Check as Tech Gaps Mount (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】深度：中国给稳定币降温 高层态度为何谨慎？

In June and July 2025, conversations on stablecoins surged across the Pacific, especially in China, Hong Kong, and the United States, before eventually subsiding[para. 1]. At key financial events in Hong Kong and Shanghai, stablecoin and tokenization discussions were frequent, driven by accelerating legislative processes in the US and Hong Kong[para. 2]. Globally, over 99% of stablecoins are USD-based, reinforcing US dollar dominance but challenging weaker nations' monetary sovereignty, prompting divergent views in China[para. 3].

Supporters, like Li Yang from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, advocate for fast development of a RMB stablecoin to counter US dominance, suggesting Hong Kong as a pilot market[para. 4]. Critics argue stablecoins are unstable, risky, and China should stick to its current strengths, such as controlled capital convertibility and gradual RMB internationalization[para. 5].

Internationally, skepticism persists; the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stated in June that stablecoins lack the completeness and elasticity of sovereign currencies since they're issued by various entities and rely on pre-existing reserves[para. 6]. By July, both the European Central Bank and key Chinese regulators adopted a cautious stance. The former ECB President Christine Lagarde rejected stablecoins as “money,” and Chinese regulators prioritized compatibility with national conditions[para. 7][para. 8].

In July, as US President Trump signed the “Stablecoin National Innovation Act,” initiating regulatory implementation, stablecoin enthusiasm cooled further[para. 9]. Several financial scams exploiting the stablecoin concept were reported, with millions of investors and billions of yuan lost, prompting Chinese authorities to issue risk warnings and restrict research dissemination on stablecoins[para. 10][para. 11][para. 12]. Meanwhile, Hong Kong announced that its first stablecoin licenses would be issued no sooner than early 2026[para. 13].

Hong Kong was at the forefront, with over 60 institutions expressing interest in stablecoin activity and only a handful of licenses planned in 2025-2026. The regulatory focus is on banks and financial firms, requiring strict anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) checks that would likely exclude most tech companies[para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17]. The guidelines demand global AML compliance for licensees, presenting operational hurdles especially for cross-border applications[para. 18]. Mainland-Hong Kong cooperation was emphasized, with Hong Kong serving as a testbed, likely starting with HKD-linked stablecoins before attempting RMB versions[para. 19][para. 20].

Most global stablecoins like USDT and USDC are built on public blockchains, dominated by the US—Tron, Ethereum, and Solana[para. 21]. After President Trump announced a strategic crypto reserve in 2025, the US solidified its position, raising Chinese concerns about dependence on foreign blockchain infrastructure for future financial systems[para. 22][para. 23][para. 24]. Debates continue about creating indigenous public blockchains to mitigate political risk[para. 25]. Technical experts warn of the inherent vulnerabilities of public blockchains—centralization, security issues, and susceptibility to regulatory choke points, especially with US dominance in mining and network architecture[para. 26][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29].

Security incidents have been rampant: in H1 2025, $2.47 billion was lost to crypto hacks and errors, highlighting stablecoins’ vulnerabilities within decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems[para. 30][para. 31][para. 32][para. 33].

Stablecoins’ primary use remains crypto asset trading, but tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and stocks on-chain is expanding. In 2025, major US brokers like Robinhood and Kraken enabled around-the-clock tokenized stock trading, presenting efficiency gains and new access for global retail investors, but also new regulatory and operational questions[para. 34][para. 35].

In cross-border payments, stablecoins are touted for their speed and low cost compared to traditional methods, and sees widespread use for trade and remittances in countries like Russia and Iran. However, experts caution that capital controls and AML compliance still bottleneck cross-border settlements, and that China’s established digital payment ecosystem already delivers efficiencies the US still lacks[para. 36][para. 37][para. 38]. Regulators also question whether stablecoin adoption genuinely advances currency internationalization or if it merely amplifies the importance of the underlying fiat currency[para. 39][para. 40].

In summary, while stablecoin discussions peaked in mid-2025, regulatory caution, security concerns, and unsolved technical and governance challenges resulted in a tempering of expectations, particularly in China and Hong Kong. The future direction will hinge on regulatory clarity, technological sovereignty, and real-world demand for on-chain assets and payments[para. 41][para. 42][para. 43][para. 44].