Commentary: Forging a New Path for Eurasia Through Afghanistan

Central and South Asia are poised to strengthen regional connectivity via Afghanistan through a series of ambitious railway projects and economic partnerships. A key milestone occurred in July when Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan signed an agreement in Kabul to begin a feasibility study for the Trans-Afghan Railway project, with all three nations’ foreign ministers present.[para. 1][para. 2] The centerpiece of this effort is the Kabul Corridor railway, which will link Termez in Uzbekistan to Peshawar in Pakistan, passing through Mazar-i-Sharif and Kabul. While the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif segment is already operational, thanks to Uzbekistan, the total project is expected to cost $4.6 billion. Once completed, this 573-kilometer (356-mile) railway will directly connect Central Asia to the Indian Ocean via Pakistani ports, offering the potential to transport 18 to 20 million tons of cargo annually. This route will dramatically reduce shipping times from weeks to days and decrease transportation costs by 30-40%. Construction is slated to begin in 2024, with completion targeted for 2030. The corridor’s route is sometimes described by its major transit points: Termez, Naibabad, Logar, and Kharlachi.[para. 3][para. 4]

The project is a collaborative effort involving Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and, like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, a consortium is being created to attract partners and investors. Kazakhstan and Russia have committed support, with Russia’s Ministry of Transport publicly backing the initiative in April and Kazakhstan signing a memorandum with Afghanistan in July to jointly pursue the project. [para. 5][para. 6]

Parallel infrastructure discussions include a 1,468-kilometer railway (Mazar-i-Sharif-Herat-Kandahar-Chaman) through western Afghanistan, which would serve as an alternative channel to Pakistani ports. The Kandahar Corridor aligns with Turkmenistan-promoted routes and, as of September 2024, construction has begun on the Turgundi-Herat segment. There’s also a vision for this Kandahar route to link to Iran. Iran’s ongoing Chabahar-Zahedan railway construction, meant to extend towards Nimroz, Dilaram, and Kandahar, is particularly relevant to India, which is involved in the Chabahar Port project. [para. 7][para. 8][para. 9]

Securing financing remains a priority. Before the Taliban’s 2021 return, financing interest was shown by the Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and other Western institutions, with costs estimated at $4.5-$8 billion and a five-year completion window. Presently, new efforts are focused on attracting investment from Gulf Cooperation Council countries and possibly China, which is eyeing Afghanistan’s mineral resources. [para. 10][para. 11]

If realized, these railway projects could help reestablish Central Asia as the hub of Eurasian transport, drawing parallels to the Silk Road era. [para. 12] Afghanistan itself stands to benefit greatly, not only as a transit hub but also through the development of extensive mineral resources, which U.S. estimates have valued at over $1 trillion, or potentially up to $3 trillion for rare earth metals. Afghanistan possesses sizable reserves of copper, coal, iron, gold, lithium, and rare earths, with the latter in high global demand.[para. 13][para. 14][para. 15]

Other significant plans include the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline, a proposed 1,814-kilometer project with a capacity of 33 billion cubic meters per year and a projected $8-10 billion cost. [para. 16][para. 17] Diplomatic progress has been incremental; Russia has formally recognized the Taliban government, all Central Asian nations maintain embassies in Kabul, and China has appointed an ambassador, pointing to growing de facto recognition. Since 2021, roughly 200 mining contracts have been signed with Chinese firms, creating about 150,000 Afghan jobs. Regional partnerships with neighbors and international stakeholders remain crucial for Afghanistan’s development. [para. 18][para. 19][para. 20][para. 21][para. 22]