Caixin Weekly | The Diminishing Allure of the Golden Rice Bowl for Programmers (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 汤涵钰、马世雯，卢丹云（实习）
By Caixin Weekly’s Tang Hanyu, Ma Shiwen, Lu Danyun (Intern)
文｜财新周刊 汤涵钰、马世雯，卢丹云（实习）
By Caixin Weekly's Tang Hanyu, Ma Shiwen, and Lu Danyun (Intern)
就业市场的兴衰从来不是新鲜话题，但或许打破想象的是，一个过去多年来被认为是“金饭碗”的职业，如今也步入“水深火热”的危机。
The ups and downs of the job market are hardly a novel topic, but what may come as a surprise is that a profession long considered a “golden rice bowl”—a guaranteed path to job security and benefits—has now plunged into a deep crisis.
今年上半年，纽约联邦储蓄银行披露的一则数据，将印象中兼握高科技和高薪酬的计算机领域从业者与“失业”联系在了一起。这组数据显示，截至2025年2月20日，美国计算机工程（Computer Engineering）与计算机科学（Computer Science，简称CS）专业毕业生（包括本科及以上）的失业率分别达到7.5%、6.1%，在各专业里排进前十。前者仅低于人类学（9.4%）、物理学（7.8%），高过商业艺术与平面设计（7.2%）、纯艺（7.0%）、社会学（6.7%）等。
In the first half of this year, data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York drew an unexpected connection between computer science professionals—long perceived as high-tech, high-earning workers—and unemployment. According to the report, as of February 20, 2025, the unemployment rates for U.S. graduates with degrees in Computer Engineering and Computer Science (at the bachelor's level and above) reached 7.5% and 6.1%, respectively. Both majors ranked among the top ten for unemployment across all disciplines surveyed. For Computer Engineering graduates, the jobless figure trailed only those in Anthropology (9.4%) and Physics (7.8%), yet surpassed those in Commercial Art and Graphic Design (7.2%), Fine Arts (7.0%), and Sociology (6.7%), among others.
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- US computer science graduate unemployment rates rose to 6.1%–7.5% in 2025, with tech layoffs (Meta, Microsoft, etc.) impacting job prospects; over 57,000 US tech jobs were cut by May 2025.
- Despite high competition and AI’s emergence, the median US computer-related salary remains ~$106,000 annually, and long-term demand is still forecasted to grow.
- Chinese students in the US and domestic graduates face stiff job markets, as recruitment shifts to AI/high-tech roles with higher requirements, and job stability concerns rise in both countries.
The article offers a comprehensive overview of the current and evolving state of the computer science (CS) job market in the United States and China, with a focus on employment trends, industry cycles, impacts of mass layoffs, shifting demand, and the influence of AI. Drawing on data, firsthand accounts, and expert analysis, it delves into key challenges facing both domestic and international graduates entering or already within the industry.[para. 1]
Current Employment Data and Trends
Recent statistics from the New York Federal Reserve Bank indicated a significant rise in unemployment rates for US computer engineering (7.5%) and CS (6.1%) graduates as of February 2025, ranking among the top ten highest across disciplines. This phenomenon was previously unheard of in what was once considered a "golden rice bowl" occupation, signaling a historic turning point. Major US tech firms like Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have collectively executed unprecedented waves of layoffs, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble’s aftermath. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of employees in computer-related occupations grew from 2.64 million in 2000 to 4.8 million in 2023—an 81.8% increase. However, 2024 witnessed a rare contraction, the first in at least a decade, with a net loss of about 20,000 positions in both broad computer fields and specific "coder" roles, coinciding with a computer/math occupation unemployment rate peaking at 2.8%.[para. 1][para. 2]
Layoffs and Recruitment Pressures
Significant job cuts continued in 2025, with Meta laying off 5% of its workforce (approx. 3,600 employees), Microsoft's two rounds totaling 15,000, and Google's voluntary exit programs signaling more cuts to come. As of May 2025, 57,000 tech workers had been laid off, continuing a three-year reduction trend. Graduates face fierce recruitment competition against laid-off workers and AI’s encroachment on entry-level jobs. Handshake data shows a 15% drop in job postings alongside a 30% increase in applicants per position. For CS majors, 28% of 2025 graduates reported being "very pessimistic" about their prospects. Even elite graduates now struggle to secure offers, revealing a tough recruitment climate dubbed "hell-level" difficulty, with typical job seekers submitting 500–1,000 applications for a single offer.[para. 2][para. 3]
Causes of Market Contraction
The cooling of the US computer job market is attributed to post-pandemic overexpansion. During 2020-22, tech companies ramped up hiring amid remote work and surging internet usage, fueled by ample venture capital and aggressive corporate growth. The subsequent drop in consumer demand, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, and stagnating internet industry growth led to sudden overstaffing and subsequent layoffs. Meanwhile, the inflow of computer science graduates has continued to increase (from 169,000 degrees in 2002/03 to 287,000 in 2022/23), further intensifying competition.[para. 4]
International Graduates and Chinese Students
Chinese students, long attracted to US CS programs, have found increasing barriers to both employment and visa sponsorship (H-1B and PERM). Some have turned to intermediary organizations like Indian Consulting Companies (ICC) to navigate the labor market, but even these channels have become unreliable. Many now consider returning to China, where similar market adjustments have unfolded. Employment for Chinese CS graduates faces oversupply, higher credential requirements for AI and big data roles, and increased emphasis on internship experience. Leading Chinese tech companies have shifted hiring toward a smaller number of high-skill positions, mainly in AI.[para. 5][para. 6]
AI’s Impact and The Changing Skill Set
While some blame AI for the layoffs, most experts and industry professionals see economic stagnation and overhiring as the main culprits. Nevertheless, AI is accelerating changes in the industry, automating simple coding tasks and raising the skill bar for developers. Demand is growing for professionals with strong problem-solving, innovation, management, and interdisciplinary (e.g., social sciences, philosophy) skills. The dichotomy may emerge between AI-dependent programmers and those who strategically leverage AI, with the latter group remaining vital to enterprise-level software development. The sector’s employment outlook remains optimistic for the next decade, but the definition of a competitive “software engineer” is rapidly evolving—top-tier talent now requires more than technical expertise.[para. 7][para. 8][para. 9]
- The article mentions Facebook as one of the major tech companies that initiated large-scale layoffs, impacting tens of thousands of employees between 2022 and 2024. These layoffs at Facebook (Meta) and other tech giants contributed to a challenging job market, particularly for computer science graduates.
- Amazon
- Per the article, Amazon is among the "FAANG" companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). Along with other major tech firms, it implemented large-scale layoffs, exceeding 10,000 employees. Amazon's CEO expects AI to reduce overall staff by boosting efficiency. In 2022, a back-end engineer who had previously worked at Amazon found the job market much tougher than when he last changed jobs.
- Microsoft
- Microsoft, as one of the major tech companies, has announced layoffs impacting roughly 3-4% of its total workforce across all levels, teams, and regions in May and July, amounting to approximately 6,000 and 9,000 employees respectively. These significant cuts follow a previous reduction of 10,000 employees in 2023. The company attributes these actions to "organizational changes" necessary for success in a "dynamic market," with a substantial portion of its capital expenditure allocated to AI data centers.
- Google is one of the "FAANG" companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). Along with other major tech companies, Google initiated mass layoffs affecting thousands of employees from 2022 to 2024. In mid-2025, Google offered a "Voluntary Exit Program" to US employees in various departments, raising concerns about further layoffs if voluntary departures didn't meet expectations.
- Apple
- The article mentions "Apple" (苹果) as part of the "FAANG" group, which is an acronym for major tech companies: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. It notes that a senior software engineer at one of the FAANG companies secured a job for a highly qualified graduate, indicating the competitive job market in the US.
- Netflix
- Netflix (referred to as "FAANG" alongside Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Google) is a major tech company. These large tech companies experienced a hiring freeze, which significantly reduced the available positions for new graduates in 2024.
- Uber
- Uber (Chinese: 优步) is mentioned as one of the major tech companies where Xu Hang, a backend engineer, previously worked. This indicates Uber's presence among leading technology firms. The article also touches upon the broader challenges faced by tech workers in the current job market.
- Tencent
- Tencent is a major Chinese internet company mentioned in the article in the context of China's fluctuating tech job market. Facing industry adjustments and an oversupply of talent, Tencent, along with other large Chinese tech firms, has seen employee numbers decline after years of rapid growth. However, in 2024, Tencent announced its "largest employment plan in history" to increase internships and new hires, particularly in AI-related roles.
- Alibaba
- The article mentions "Alibaba" in the context of major internet companies in China. It states that Alibaba, along with Tencent and Baidu, experienced a decline in employee numbers around 2022 after years of growth. This indicates a period of adjustment for the company, mirroring trends in the broader tech industry.
- Baidu
- Baidu aims to offer 21,000 internship positions for talented students over the next three years, significantly increasing their conversion rate to full-time employment. In March 2025, Baidu opened over 3,000 summer internship roles, with 87% focused on AI-related fields like large models, machine learning, and autonomous driving.
- NetEase
- The article makes no mention of NetEase.
- ByteDance
- ByteDance is mentioned in the article as one of the companies for which a Chinese student, Qin Cong, had received algorithm-related job offers. However, Qin Cong ultimately chose a state-owned enterprise for its stability, citing concerns about the instability of large tech companies like ByteDance. The article also touches upon the general trend of some Chinese students preferring state-owned enterprises due to perceived instability in major tech firms.
- Meituan
- This article does not contain information about Meituan.
- 1995–2001：
- A slew of nascent internet companies raised significant funds in the stock market, but the bubble burst leading many firms to collapse or go bankrupt.
- 2014：
- The Economic Research and Statistics Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published a research article on the employment of recent college graduates and has continued to update relevant data since then.
- 2019：
- Reference year for pre-pandemic hiring, used for comparison with 2023 and 2024 hiring statistics in large tech firms and startups.
- 2020：
- Unemployment rate for U.S. Computer and Mathematical Occupations peaked at 3.4%, the highest in the past decade.
- 2020–2021：
- Massive monetary easing occurred during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to later cycles in the tech industry.
- 2021：
- Peng Fei graduated with a master’s degree from a top American public university; nearly all his friends joined major tech companies.
- 2022：
- More than 93,000 employees in the U.S. technology sector lost their jobs in mass layoffs; 43,000 were laid off in November 2022 alone.
- 2022–2023：
- Meta conducted its largest round of job cuts before 2025, cutting 21,000 positions.
- 2022–2025：
- U.S. computer job market experienced a dramatic shakeout; nearly three-year trend of downsizing in the technology sector.
- January 2023：
- Peng Fei was one of 12,000 Google employees laid off.
- 2023：
- Number of employees in computer-related occupations in the U.S. reached 4.804 million; 'coder' segment reached nearly 2.177 million.
- 2023：
- Microsoft conducted its largest round of layoffs prior to 2025, cutting 10,000 positions.
- Q1 2023：
- Layoffs in the U.S. tech sector reached 65,000 in January, 29,000 in February, and 37,000 in March.
- 2023：
- Total number of dismissed employees in the U.S. tech sector throughout the year reached 191,000.
- 2023–2025：
- Difficult for recent graduates in the U.S. to find internships and jobs; some students returned to China for internships or delayed graduation.
- Autumn 2023：
- In previous, stronger job markets, most students would have secured positions as early as this season.
- 2024：
- First net reduction in at least a decade: overall number of employees in the broad computer category and the 'coder' segment both declined by about 20,000 compared with 2023, to 4.787 million and 2.154 million, respectively.
- 2024：
- Broader Computer and Mathematical Occupations category's unemployment rate rose to 2.8%, the second-highest in a decade.
- 2024：
- More than 95,000 tech workers were laid off in the U.S. technology sector.
- 2024：
- Major tech companies such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon were undergoing a hiring freeze; number of new graduates hired by large tech firms declined by 25% compared to 2023, and by over 50% compared to 2019.
- 2024：
- Most computer science graduates seeking jobs were submitting between 500 and 1,000 resumes; many had not received job offers four months before graduation.
- 2024–2025：
- Job postings on Handshake declined by 15%, while the number of applicants per position surged by 30%; more than half of 2025 graduates feel somewhat pessimistic about starting their careers.
- As of February 20, 2025：
- Unemployment rates for U.S. graduates with degrees in Computer Engineering reached 7.5% and Computer Science reached 6.1%.
- Start of 2025：
- The U.S. technology sector hit by a series of setbacks; Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a 5% staff reduction, laying off about 3,600 employees.
- May 2025：
- Microsoft announced plans to cut approximately 3% of its workforce, about 6,000 employees, including 1,985 at Redmond headquarters.
- May 2025：
- As of this date, 57,000 employees in the American technology sector had been laid off in 2025.
- May–June 2025：
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics made significant downward revisions to employment data: May job growth revised from 144,000 to 19,000; June job growth revised from 147,000 to 14,000.
- As of June 2025：
- Of nearly 50 Chinese students in Peng Fei's University of Waterloo program, only about five had secured jobs in North America.
- Mid-year 2025：
- Google launched a 'Voluntary Exit Program' for employees in multiple departments across the United States.
- July 2025：
- Microsoft announced plans to cut approximately 4% of its workforce, about 9,000 employees.
- July 2025：
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls added just 73,000 new jobs; unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
- August 1, 2025：
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released July nonfarm payroll data, rattling financial markets.
- 2025 graduation season：
- A Carnegie Mellon/UC Berkeley computer science graduate received only one job offer; job market described as 'hell mode' by recruiters.
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