Commentary: How AI Is Squeezing Young People’s Family Plans
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A recent paper by Harvard University researchers Seyed M. Hosseini and Guy Lichtinger, “Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change: Evidence from U.S. Résumé and Job Posting Data,” analyzed data from nearly 285,000 companies, 62 million employees, and 245 million job postings in the U.S. from 2015 to 2025. It concludes that since early 2023, generative AI has been reshaping the labor market in a “seniority-biased” manner, impacting junior employees far more than their senior counterparts.
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- A Harvard study found generative AI adoption reduced junior hires by 7.7% over 18 months, particularly in wholesale and retail, while promotion rates for existing juniors rose.
- China’s fertility rate dropped to 1.01 in 2023; delayed employment and education due to AI-driven labor market trends exacerbate this, contributing to demographic and economic challenges.
- Policy recommendations include substantial cash, tax, and housing subsidies for families with children to counterbalance falling birthrates and support youth.
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Who’s Who
- Ctrip Group
- Liang Jianzhang, the executive chairman of Ctrip Group, is also a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management. He contributed to the article with his policy recommendations for childbirth subsidies in China.
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What Happened When
- 2015 to 2025：
- The Harvard study analyzed data from nearly 285,000 companies, 62 million employees, and 245 million job postings in the U.S. during this period.
- Since early 2023：
- Generative AI has begun reshaping the U.S. labor market in a seniority-biased manner, impacting entry-level jobs more than senior ones.
- 2023：
- China's total fertility rate dropped to 1.01.
- 2023 to 2025：
- China's fertility rate has remained about half the replacement level.
- Over six quarters after early 2023 (i.e., by mid/late 2024)：
- In AI-adopting companies, the number of junior employees declined by a relative 7.7%.
- 2025：
- Nanjing University’s incoming class includes 4,113 undergraduates and 9,222 graduate students.
- 2025：
- Fudan University will enroll 4,000 undergraduates and 12,000 graduate students.
- 2025：
- The State Council announced a policy to waive tuition for the final year of public preschool starting in the fall of 2025.
- As of 2025：
- China is in a phase of overcapacity and underemployment, facing deflationary pressure.
- As of 2025：
- Society has the resources to subsidize education, childbirth, and internship training due to AI-driven productivity gains.
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