Commentary: As the U.S. Balks, China and Europe Can Lead on Climate

[para. 1] In 2025, China and the European Union (EU) commemorate the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement and the 50th anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties. At the United Nations Climate Change Summit, Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced new nationally determined contributions, emphasizing the urgency for deepening China-EU cooperation on climate and energy. This collaboration is seen as crucial for accelerating global climate governance and the broader transition to a low-carbon economy.

[para. 2][para. 3] The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in January 2025 has significant global implications. The U.S. withdrew from the Paris Agreement and reinforced unilateral economic policies, including imposing a 15% tariff on European goods. In return, the EU committed to buying $250 billion of American fossil fuels over three years, potentially jeopardizing its energy security and low-carbon ambitions. Additionally, U.S.-China competition in technology has spilled over into obstacles for China-EU cooperation in green industries. The EU has responded by accelerating its pursuit of “strategic autonomy,” balancing cooperation and competition with China, and increasingly viewing China as a “systemic rival,” especially regarding green technology standards and industrial policies.

[para. 4] The absence of U.S. leadership in climate action presents both challenges and opportunities for China-EU collaboration. For the EU, energy insecurity exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war has intensified the need for a robust clean energy system. Renewed China-EU cooperation could help both parties reduce dependence on fossil fuels and accelerate the global low-carbon transition. Collaborative efforts are essential for achieving strategic competitiveness, autonomy, and climate goals.

[para. 5] On July 24, 2025, China and the EU issued a joint statement on climate change, reaffirming their commitment to enhanced cooperation in tackling climate change, trade, and investment, and to promoting a green transition. This underscores their ambitions as global climate leaders.

[para. 6][para. 7] In power-sector decarbonization, China and the EU have aligned targets. China aims to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach neutrality by 2060, while the EU targets neutrality by 2050 and a 55% emissions reduction by 2030. The European Commission proposed an even tougher emissions target—90% by 2040. As of 2024, China’s installed wind and solar capacity surpassed 1.2 billion kW, meeting its 2030 target six years early. For the first half of 2025, China’s renewable energy generation outpaced electricity demand growth, meaning its power sector may peak emissions this year. The EU generates 47% of its electricity from renewables, with solar surpassing coal for the first time in 2024.

[para. 8][para. 9] Despite progress, China and the EU face mutual challenges: ensuring stability and security while expanding renewable energy integration. For China, coal remains 60% of the electricity mix; transitioning to renewables through smart grids and market reform is imperative. The EU, meanwhile, must address grid reliability and power system flexibility. Deeper cooperation in smart microgrids, market designs, and power system management could be mutually beneficial.

[para. 10] Looking forward, both should adopt progressive commitments—halting coal expansion (China) and accelerating fossil fuel phase-out (EU)—to push power-sector decarbonization further. The rise of AI and clean tech industries intensifies renewable electricity demand, making a joint “Power Sector Decarbonization” initiative timely and essential.

[para. 11][para. 12][para. 13] China-EU cooperation will require navigating a complex landscape of both collaboration and competition. Regulatory measures like the EU’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation and China’s advancements in clean energy technology are reshaping this dynamic. By jointly defending global climate frameworks, establishing standards, and investing in green projects globally, they can lead the way despite strategic differences. Ultimately, transcending geopolitical tensions in favor of pragmatic, multi-level collaboration can establish a “China-EU solution” to global climate challenges, especially with the U.S. retreat from climate leadership under President Trump.