Analysis: AI Boom Fuels Unexpected Surge in China’s High-Tech Exports

China’s trade continued its robust recovery in September 2025, with data from the General Administration of Customs showing dollar-denominated exports rising by 8.3% year-over-year, up from 4.4% in August and surpassing the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 6.6%. Imports also rose sharply, increasing 7.4% year-over-year versus the previous 1.3%, and outperforming the Bloomberg consensus of 1.8%. The trade surplus reached $90.5 billion, up $8.8 billion from a year prior. The resilience in exports is expected to persist, supported by the global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in expansionary territory, ongoing AI industry development, and strong investment demand from emerging markets[para. 1].

Despite ongoing U.S.-China tariffs, China’s export growth accelerated both in the second (6.2%) and third quarters (6.6%). This resilience is attributed to (1) exporters becoming more adept at strengthening their competitive edge and managing high tariff impacts, (2) supply chain expansion driven by the AI industry, and (3) growing investments in Belt and Road Initiative countries[para. 2].

An in-depth analysis reveals that exports of electromechanical intermediate goods and consumer products saw significant improvement. AI-driven demand is sustaining a strong semiconductor industry, especially as global supply chain diversification has increased intermediate goods demand. Export prices of commodities such as steel and rare earths have rebounded, reversing previous trends where volume was prioritized over price. For example, export prices for steel and rare earths rose considerably, while rare earth prices soared by 106% year-over-year[para. 3][para. 7].

Electromechanical product exports sharply rebounded to 13.1% in September, up from 7.1% in August, contributing 7.7 percentage points to overall export growth. Integrated circuit exports surged 32.7% year-over-year, fueled by the global AI investment boom and contributing 1.5 percentage points to export growth. General machinery exports also benefited from global supply chain shifts, leaping 24.8%. Although mobile phones and computer-related exports still declined, the rate of decline narrowed notably. Semiconductor-related exports played a key role in boosting total export growth, both for China and for neighboring economies like Taiwan[para. 4].

The contraction in exports of light industrial and textile products eased, with categories such as apparel, footwear, furniture, and plastics all showing improvements compared to August. However, toy exports fell sharply, possibly due to shifting production patterns amid tariff changes[para. 5].

Automobile and auto part exports grew more slowly in September (8.7%, down from 12.0% in August). Export volume was flat at 24%, but average prices declined. Finished vehicle exports outpaced parts but with the gap narrowing[para. 6].

By region, exports to non-U.S. destinations remained robust, with Africa, ASEAN countries, and the EU leading contributions to growth at 2.7, 2.4, and 2.0 percentage points, respectively. Belt and Road investment and trade offshoring were key supports. Exports to the U.S. improved to -27% year-over-year from -33% in August but still weighed significantly on overall growth. In contrast, EU export growth accelerated to 14.2%, aided by a 10% depreciation in the yuan against the euro since Donald Trump’s second presidential term began[para. 8][para. 9].

Exports to Latin America and Africa remained strong due to Belt and Road-related investments and cooperation forums, with African exports surging 56.4% year-over-year in September[para. 11].

On the import side, growth accelerated to 7.4% year-over-year, with strong demand for electromechanical goods, especially integrated circuits, and increased imports of agricultural, metal, and energy inputs. However, imports from the U.S. remained weak at -16.1%, reflecting persistent tariff and trade tensions[para. 12].

Looking ahead, China’s export outlook is supported by continued AI industry demand, Belt and Road investments, and recovering global manufacturing cycles. While recent U.S.-China trade friction escalations could complicate the external environment, short-term negotiations are expected to avoid severe decoupling, maintaining high export contract activity. Global fiscal stimulus and anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts should further support trade resilience[para. 13].