Commentary: China’s Future Depends on More Babies and Open Borders
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On Oct. 13, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced that the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences would be awarded to Joel Mokyr of Northwestern University, Philippe Aghion of the Collège de France, and Peter Howitt of Brown University for their work explaining innovation-driven economic growth.
In its statement, the academy noted that the global economy has grown at an unprecedented rate over the past 200 years, a phenomenon rooted in continuous technological innovation. Sustained economic growth arises from new technologies replacing old ones, a process known as “creative destruction.”
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- The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for research on innovation-driven economic growth and “creative destruction.”
- China’s declining birthrate and aging population threaten its innovative capacity; boosting fertility and global exchanges is vital for maintaining technological and economic competitiveness.
- The author proposes greater childbirth subsidies and further opening up to international exchange to support innovation and national strength.
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- Google is mentioned as a successful digital tech company whose search engine, after initial success in the U.S., rapidly dominated the global market, becoming highly profitable due to globalization and the rapid dissemination of digital technology.
- Trip.com Group
- Liang Jianzhang, the executive chairman of Trip.com Group, is also a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management. He is the author of the book *Innovationism*, which analyzes the history of human development through technological innovation and the link between wealth and innovative capacity.
- Thirty years ago, in 1995：
- The highest-paid professions in the U.S. were doctors and lawyers.
- From 2012 to 2022：
- U.S. R&D investment as a percentage of GDP grew from 2.7% to 3.4%, and China’s rose from 1.9% to 2.5%.
- In recent years (2023–2025)：
- China has fallen into a low-fertility trap with birthrate around half the replacement level.
- In recent years (2023–2025)：
- Despite U.S. containment efforts, China’s technological strength continued to rise due to its huge population of researchers and large market.
- Jan. 1, 2025：
- China's new childcare subsidy policy (3,600 yuan per child per year for children up to age 3) becomes effective.
- As of Sept. 2025：
- China has implemented unilateral or reciprocal visa-free arrangements with 75 countries.
- Today, in 2025：
- The most sought-after job in the U.S. is software engineer, with salaries surpassing those of doctors and lawyers.
- Oct. 13, 2025：
- The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced that the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences would be awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their work on innovation-driven economic growth.
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