Analysis: What Will China Prioritize in the Next Five-Year Plan

This article systematically analyzes preliminary signals and potential themes for China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), drawing on recent high-level political meetings, official commentaries, and historical precedent[para. 1].

The September Politburo meeting provided critical insight into policy priorities for the 15th Five-Year Plan. Compared to its 2020 counterpart, this session placed greater emphasis on several core principles, including “the people,” “fairness,” adapting to “local conditions,” “high-level opening-up,” “integrating an effective market and a capable government,” and “bottom-line thinking.” Economic development will continue to prioritize high-quality growth and the cultivation of “new quality productive forces.” The move to tailor development to local conditions serves as a caution against wasteful, redundant construction and hints that reducing “excessive competition” to stabilize price indicators may feature prominently in the plan. On reform and opening-up, the meeting separated the ideas of deepening reforms and expanding opening-up, particularly highlighting the promise of increased service sector liberalization. The explicit call for “bottom-line thinking” and “safeguarding the new development paradigm with a new security paradigm” underscores the elevated prominence of comprehensive security, spanning industrial and supply chain integrity, food security, and national defense[para. 2][para. 3][para. 4][para. 5].

The session set the schedule for the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October 2025, after which more detailed guidance and policy parameters are expected. Historically, the full text following such plenums provides granularity on economic and social development objectives[para. 6].

Complementing the Politburo meeting, the People’s Daily released a major series of economistic articles under the pseudonym “Zhong Caiwen,” providing additional insight. These writings emphasized the nuanced nature of China’s transformation, warning against one-size-fits-all approaches to industrial policy and calling for strong, reform-oriented policies to manage uneven sectoral growth and perceptions at the micro-level. These priorities are likely to be reflected in the 15th Five-Year Plan[para. 7].

According to the analysis, the three major themes of the new plan will be high-quality development, institutional reform, and industrial transformation and upgrading. As the midpoint in the phased process toward achieving basic socialist modernization by 2035, the 15th Plan is expected to both deepen existing initiatives and conduct a midterm review. Despite previous five-year plans downplaying GDP targets in favor of qualitative reform, long-term goals such as doubling 2020’s GDP or per capita income by 2035 will necessitate sustained annual economic growth rates of 4.1% to 5.5%, depending on currency fluctuations and development benchmarks[para. 8][para. 9].

The 15th Plan is expected to maintain the value placed on public well-being and security, with references to “people first” and “more fairness.” Security priorities – elevated to parity with economic growth since the 14th Plan – will likely persist, with an increased focus on comprehensive public welfare indicators[para. 10]. In terms of reform, the plan’s critical period will see the implementation of over 300 reform tasks set in the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, to be finished by 2029, spanning economic systems, education, green transition, and social welfare. Policy directions are expected to include market-based reforms, the development of emerging industries, innovation incentives, green and low-carbon policies, and improved social safety nets[para. 11].

Industrial transformation remains crucial; while earlier five-year plans set quantitative sectoral targets, recent plans increasingly highlight advanced manufacturing, innovation, and R&D spending. The focus on “new quality productive forces” will likely continue, with emphasis on emerging pillar industries and integrating the real and digital economies. Key policy topics for 2025—artificial intelligence, service trade, and industrial restructuring—foreshadow focus areas for the next plan[para. 12][para. 13][para. 14].

Specifically, the 15th Plan is likely to prioritize sectors such as marine economy, “AI Plus,” commercial spaceflight, low-altitude economy, intelligent vehicles, and robotics, alongside established priorities like information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and quantum technology. These priorities reflect both ongoing state policy and recent political guidance[para. 15][para. 16][para. 17].