Commentary: Tech Self-Reliance at the Core of China’s Next Five-Year Plan

The fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee has established the core objectives for China’s economic and social development during the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030). The paramount target outlined is “achieving significant results in high-quality development,” signaling a continuation of current economic strategies with an emphasis on structural transformation and the vigorous cultivation of new quality productive forces such as advanced manufacturing and technology-related industries [para. 1]. Mirroring the approach of the 14th Five-Year Plan, a hard economic growth target may not be explicitly stated, but based on trends from previous plans, an implicit target of approximately 4.5% growth is probable [para. 2].

A central tenet of the upcoming plan is the acceleration of high-level technological self-reliance, vital for developing new quality productive forces and maintaining competitive positioning in the ongoing U.S.-China technology rivalry. The communique clearly prioritizes substantial progress in technological self-reliance, a core driver for economic advancement and the realization of socialist modernization. Other policy measures will align with these objectives, including expediting the construction of a unified national market, promoting education and talent to reinforce industrial upgrading, and tackling disorderly competition to stimulate innovation [para. 3][para. 4][para. 5].

Maintaining and advancing manufacturing is highlighted as the backbone of China’s industrial system. The new plan introduces a more flexible directive to “maintain a reasonable share” for manufacturing, compared to the prior “stable share” emphasis, focusing on advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging sectors to build technological and competitive strengths [para. 6][para. 7]. Input mechanisms—combining labor, capital, technology, and other factors—are deemed necessary to support this sector’s growth.

Investment strategies during the new period will prioritize both material (infrastructure, manufacturing) and social (education, healthcare, housing) dimensions. By integrating “investment in things” with “investment in people,” the plan aims to create a virtuous cycle linking supply capacity and domestic demand, leveraging the “seven haves” (childcare, education, employment, healthcare, elderly care, housing, assistance for the vulnerable) as drivers of sustained quality growth [para. 8][para. 9].

The communique stresses expanding the “high level” of the market economy by combining institutional strengths with market mechanisms—strengthening antitrust, optimizing the competitive environment, and promoting openness to reform. High-level opening-up will focus on mutually beneficial (“win-win”) global trade, harmonizing domestic policies with international standards, and using openness as a lever for reform and equitable global economic governance [para. 10][para. 11].

Rural revitalization remains foundational, with comprehensive agricultural modernization emphasized as critical for food, ecological, and social security. The 2024–2027 Rural Comprehensive Revitalization Plan advances employment and entrepreneurship, especially among youth, and coordinated regional development is targeted to address disparities and optimize spatial planning through the “major functional zone strategy,” dividing the country into four region types with tailored development priorities [para. 12][para. 13].

Improving livelihoods involves bolstering social security and adapting the employment structure through skills training around new industries. The push for a green transformation is linked to the promotion of new quality productive forces, especially in energy, with broader applications anticipated across industries like electronics and construction, aiming for carbon neutrality and a sustainable economic model [para. 14][para. 15].

National defense enhancements form a new feature, calling for the acceleration of “advanced combat capabilities.” This means developing military technologies that harness mechanization, informatization, and intelligence, integrating them with broader economic advances, and ensuring that military procurement is fully aligned with operational necessities [para. 16][para. 17].

For 2025, the communique stresses the “five stabilizations”—employment, enterprises, markets, expectations, and economic fundamentals. China targets about 5% annual GDP growth, supported by a 5.2% year-on-year increase in the first nine months of 2025, likely avoiding significant new stimulus until 2026 [para. 18][para. 19].

Finally, the reiteration of the goal to achieve “moderately developed country” per capita GDP levels by 2035 affirms policy continuity, grounded in China’s systemic advantages and flexibility amid global uncertainties. The policy focus is firmly on structural and qualitative advancements to achieve this overarching goal [20–24].