Commentary: China’s Climate Pledge Breaks New Ground

China's recently announced 2035 climate targets have elicited mixed reactions amid escalating geopolitical tensions and faltering global climate cooperation. Despite falling short of the most ambitious global expectations, the 2035 pledge introduces several notable advancements. For the first time, China has committed to an absolute reduction—rather than just an intensity-based decrease—in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including a potential absolute reduction in coal consumption. Importantly, these new targets extend beyond just carbon dioxide (CO₂) to encompass all greenhouse gases. This change represents a significant structural shift in China’s approach to climate policy. While not as aggressive as some might hope, it helps maintain international climate momentum at a time when both the U.S. and the EU have yet to release updated climate pledges, thereby setting a baseline for future ambition and preventing stagnation in global mitigation efforts. [para. 1][para. 2]

Aside from the headline target, the new strategy also highlights two additional, often overlooked, developments: efforts to control oil consumption, and new measures targeting greenhouse gases other than CO₂. Concerning oil, although most international attention focuses on coal, China has been quietly working towards peaking oil consumption. As outlined in national strategy documents from 2020 and 2021, and in its 15th Five-Year Plan, China aims to plateau oil use before 2030, with evidence suggesting that this may already be underway. The International Energy Agency reports that in 2024, China’s demand for transport fuels (such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) plateaued at around 8.1 million barrels per day, slightly below its 2021 peak. This stabilization is largely a result of rapid electrification in the transport sector, where over 30% of new vehicle sales in China are now electric. Supportive government policies and competitive costs have accelerated this transition, including for trucks, thus reducing demand for transport fuels. Yet, total oil demand is still inching up, primarily due to its use in petrochemical feedstocks for plastics and fertilizers. Still, China’s oil-plateau vision provides a strategic platform for managing oil demand in both transport and industry, encouraging further adoption of electric vehicles, stricter fuel efficiency standards, and the pursuit of cleaner alternatives in the petrochemical sector. Achieving a full peak in oil demand in the coming years would mark a decisive shift in global fossil fuel markets. [para. 3][para. 4][para. 5][para. 6][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9]

Another impactful, yet underappreciated, element in China’s new climate roadmap is the formal inclusion of all types of greenhouse gases, not just CO₂. This means methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and nitrous oxide (N₂O)—shorter-lived but significantly more potent than CO₂—are now part of China's climate targets. These non-CO₂ gases constitute about 20% to 25% of China’s total emissions. Historically, they have attracted less policy attention, but this is changing. According to the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress, China could cut an additional 380 million tons of CO₂-equivalent annually by 2030 using cost-effective and proven technologies such as methane capture in coal mines and landfills, improved nitrogen efficiency in agriculture, installation of N₂O reduction technologies in industry, and phasing down HFCs. Many initiatives have already been piloted at the provincial level, and with their integration into the 2035 pledge, non-CO₂ mitigation is gaining new political traction. This opens the possibility for future climate pledges to include more specific targets for these gases, potentially accelerating action across sectors like agriculture, energy, waste management, and industry. [para. 10][para. 11][para. 12][para. 13][para. 14][para. 15]

In summary, China’s 2035 climate targets may not fully satisfy those seeking immediate, deep emissions cuts, but they demonstrate substantial progress in both target ambition and policy implementation. The shift from intensity-based targets to absolute reductions, from CO₂-only accounting to comprehensive GHG coverage, and from policy promises to credible execution, suggest real systems-level changes are underway in China. Such developments signal encouraging progress in the global fight against climate change, even as multilateral collaboration remains uncertain. [para. 16][para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20][para. 21][para. 22]